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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    HH GEFS is significantly better.
  2. CAPE
    The perils of a progressive pattern. Timing has to be impeccable. This is a primary reason why we want a blocking regime.
  3. CAPE
    That interaction needs to take place a bit further west like the Euro, which was pretty close to something bigger. Ridge axis a tad too far east on the GFS. Overall a pretty radical set up with the amped up look. Nice potential.
  4. CAPE
    But the 0z run looked like this and you thought it was ok.
  5. CAPE
    Early March can produce different outcomes than say early Jan even if the state of the drivers largely remain the same.
  6. CAPE
    Not bad at this juncture. Ask me how worried I am about the GFS lol.
  7. CAPE
    12z EPS is souther than 0z, but not crushed/nonexistent like the GEFS. Canadian ens mean has a storm too but it is further south than the EPS.
  8. CAPE
    It was pretty close to something big. Brings the NS energy in behind with some snow showers and then COLD.
  9. CAPE
    It's a bit odd given the track of the low but its another op run that shows a storm and that's the take away.
  10. CAPE
    Yeah it goes to rain, but we got a storm.
  11. CAPE
  12. CAPE
    She looks good
  13. CAPE
    The pretty WB snow map from the ICON(SUCKS) run.
  14. CAPE
    As usual it comes down to the subtle interactions between the southern wave and the NS shortwave(s) dropping in downstream of the amplifying ridge. ICON got it done much like the Euro did, but even simpler. GFS is messier in the NS and timing is off so it just kicks it. We just cant know, and hopefully the ensembles will shed some light and not just play follow the leader.
  15. CAPE
    No, this is the @losetoa6 storm.
  16. CAPE
  17. CAPE
    Agreed. This one looks more interesting for places up near the PA line. It is the storm to track right now so I will keep an eye on it.
  18. CAPE
    As a science based person on a science based forum, not starting a thread to track and discuss the details of a stable discrete storm threat because jinx!!! is beyond silly.
  19. CAPE
    The Sunday/Monday storm much less crushed on the 6z GEFS.
  20. CAPE
    Well lets get that party started then!
  21. CAPE
    That storm is happening. Locked in. It's largely just a matter of where the sleet/ice vs the rain is, and if there is any snow on the front end.
  22. CAPE
    Someone should start a thread for the late week slop event. For those who buy into superstition and mojo and whatnot, it could only help at this point lol. It would also declutter this thread. @WxUSAF
  23. CAPE
    Low of 16 here.
  24. CAPE
    Not a bad signal for 7 days out on the EPS. Mean snowfall for this period is 2" across VA/MD/DE, more in the western highlands ofc.
  25. CAPE
    All 3 globals are depicting pretty extreme amplification of the western ridge next weekend, causing the TPV to shed a lobe that produces a digging trough. Both the CMC and GFS literally drop the hammer on top of the southern wave, while the timing and orientation of the trough on the EURO allows (positive) interaction with the wave further west, thus not crushing it to oblivion. Long way to go before we know how this unfolds.
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