CAPE

Mount Holly is a tad bullish here- certainly more than I am. Friday Night Snow, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 23. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if the GFS reels folks back in at 0z and/or 6z. This set up is so touchy, the outcome is hardly etched in stone at this point.

HH supports my earlier inclination to head to the beach. Couple inches in my yard, 6"+ down there.

One thing I have noticed mostly while looking at the means is the area of low pressure sitting there NE of Florida. Not paid much attention to it really, but the 18z NAM certainly did- seems to have suddenly made it integral to the development of the coastal low this run. I am just catching up so maybe this was mentioned, but seems like it completely lost it's mind here.

At least the 18z RGEM didn't shat the bed. Looks about the same as 12z.

Normally no, but the upcoming period looks more dicey for snow on the coastal plain, and I could use a fix- of snow and DFH. Rehoboth beach and Lewes are actually my favorite nearby places to visit.

If I go there will be. Probably has to be a legit chance for at least a half a foot for me to go, unless my yard looks to be completely missed or fringed.

Yeah a couple more runs and I think the Euro and GFS will look about the same. Hopefully there is a little improvement from the GFS in getting to that point.

Those days are over for me. Last time I lost any sleep model watching was 2016. Just do what makes you happy and generally disengage emotionally from stuff you have zero control over.

As it stands I am probably heading to Rehoboth on Friday.

This is what it is now. A tweak here or there, but in the end I expect there to be a light to moderate snow for the general area, with those pretty shades of pink on the Euro confined to the immediate coast or gone altogether.

I actually clicked on the chart and looked at it- he misconstrued something. Looks like only one site where the GFS was significantly more in error than the Euro. The rest were about equal, or slight errors one way or the other. Basically a wash.

Yeah same general idea as the op but less precip. And the GEFS has led the way on the trend for the more meaningful snow to be in SE VA. At this point I would expect them to be very close as we go forward.

Sure it was cool too. I don't expect either to verify verbatim though. The GFS might be a bit underdone/fast, but I think it is probably closer to what the outcome will be.

Well there is the NAMing for east of I-95. Now we can get back to the more reasonable outcomes.

Ground truth this run is very Euro like. Probably better.

Mount Holly headlines are informative, and keeping it pretty general for now. Expected given the uncertainty.

6z EPS is pretty much a hold from it's 0z run.

The Euro keeps dragging me in to more (unrealistic) expectations lol. I still think in the end 2-4", with a boom of 6 for my yard is reasonable given the set up. Tracking this potential storm has been interesting for me because I first started looking ahead to this window about 2 weeks ago when it started to become clear the MLK storm would be mostly a rainer here. In my mind the overall h5 look then heavily favored offshore tracking lows with the possibility of a coastal scraper that could be a bigger storm. My yard can do pretty well in these scenarios, or get fringed or even nothing. I got 5-6 inches here with the scrapers of both Jan of 17 and 18 (da bomb cyclone), but pretty much equal chances of fringe or getting a moderate event here in my experience with these kinds of storms. With this one I have always felt lower end warning criteria was a reasonable outcome. As things look right now, that is still achievable. And yes Mount Holly is generally excellent and detailed in their AFDs.

A good outcome in this pattern(progressive) has always been contingent on subtle interactions and timing, plus fundamentally we needed the NS trough to dig more than usual in these set ups. A lot has to go right for this to work out, especially for places not right along the coast. Hopefully today brings some better trends with the trough orientation.

From Mount Holly this morning- Similar to last night, the majority of tonight`s 26.00z guidance had an overall eastward look relative to their more westward 25.12z counterparts. The phasing between the shortwaves generally happened later, with a more positive tilt longwave trough as it approached the Southeast coast. This then results in a further east track of the surface low. Even the EC, which remains on the western edge and still shows a high impact event, was a little more east. And other models such as the GFS and UKMET are even further east and would be quite low impact for our region. But there are still more western solutions on the table, such as the 0z NAM. Upper air changes on most of the models were quite subtle, but as has been discussed, downstream output will be contingent on very minor changes occurring over the next 24 hours. Today`s trends will certainly be important. With all of the shortwave energy at least over land now, sampling will be steadily improving, and "big picture" model solutions should start converging in the next 12 to 24 hours.

I'm usually in bed lol.