CAPE

43 this morning. Looks like a beautiful Spring day. Good day to be outside. Tomorrow not so much.

Friday looks like the best day for winter-like conditions right now. Saturday doesn't look bad either, but probably above freezing by afternoon.

Sure it can snow in early April. Even had a couple inches here years ago. This doesn't look like the synoptic setup to do it though. Basically it would be an anafrontal deal. That will be cold chasing rain most of the time, and esp in Spring. Looks pretty good for interior NE, with a coastal low forming up that way.

They needed a veteran presence. They have a bunch of young WRs, and they will probably draft another one. Less pressure to make it a first round pick though, where they usually bust picking a receiver. Interestingly, Watkin's best season was in Buffalo when Roman was the OC.

We have seen this crap from models for months lol. Probably a 100" of digital snow for the winter here from any one of those ens, mostly at this range. Mount Holly's FA goes up to the Poconos. They aren't too impressed with the threat of frozen even there. They could be wrong ofc, but I will easily side with climo on April 1. This doesn't look like some historic event on the means. Sure there may be some wet flakes in northern areas as the precip ends, but that is pretty pedestrian. If that floats your boat, well, ok.

70 with modest winds. WA was not necessary here.

This is reality, from Mount Holly. Op models esp the GFS are LOL. We could barely get enough cold for snow in the heart of winter. The next system of note approaches later Wednesday into Thursday with another chance for some rain/thunderstorms/hydro concerns as a cold front crosses the forecast area. Rain is expected to start moving into the region later Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will pick up behind the cold front on Thursday. Temperatures drop off behind the departing cold front with overnight lows dropping to the 20s to lower 30s. The precipitation is expected to cut off before the cold air arrives so not expecting much, if any, mixing to occur. Highs look to struggle to remain in the 40s across the forecast area on Friday.

This sounds ominous. I will prepare to take shelter. From Mount Holly AFD- As the system`s cold front approaches from the west into the late afternoon and evening, MLCAPE values should be on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg (possibly even higher across Delmarva and southern NJ) across much of the inland portions of the area. Meanwhile, deep layer shear will be quite strong (50-60+ kts) across the warm sector and low-level shear will also be very strong. Forecast effective SRH values will be on the order of 300-400 m2/s2 with large curved hodographs, so the kinematic profile will support organized storms and rotating updrafts of any deep convection that develops in the warm sector or along the cold front. It`s still a little too far out to determine the convective evolution, but this severe event needs to be monitored very closely. SPC has highlighted southern portions of the forecast area with a threat of significant severe weather, and damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

Wind picking up now. Temp down to 76.

80 here. Breezy, but no big wind yet.

The grass seed I planted around March 10 is now actual grass, and the existing grass is deep green. Yeah baby.

Newest member- King of Prussia Dental Ass

From Mount Holly this morning- By Sunday afternoon the precipitation field will likely take on a more convective appearance as elevated instability develops. The primary fcst question then becomes, can we warm enough near the surface to overcome the fairly stout low-lvl inversion that is progged to be in place? If we can... and thus generate sfc- based instability there would be an appreciable severe threat as kinematics will not be lacking with 850mb winds around 60-70kts and 925mb winds up to 50kts. However, at this time, the thermal evolution is not clear, particularly given the low-lvl cloud cover and overunning precipitation earlier in the day. This uncertainty is partially quantified by the fact that the NBM`s IQR for Sunday`s MaxTs is 7-9 degrees, which represents a higher than usual spread in its components. If storms remain elevated it should be a fairly mundane spring rainfall event, with current QPF in the 0.75-1 inch range (although with convection in play locally higher totals are possible).

Drinking a 120. Just felt like that kind of a day. Really gotten green out there. My grass is coming to life. Along with the moss, clover, and dandelions. Embrace the variety.

Best pizza ever is wood fired, gorgonzola cheese, caramelized onions- can stop right there- or add some pear slices for that extra layer of flavor and contrast. No red sauce obviously.

I eat avocado on or with anything. Never tried the juice, but I have a bottle of avocado oil.

Avocado. Not even close.

The big 3 global ensembles all have it for that timeframe. Most people are probably rooting against it being sustained, given the sensible weather it would likely produce this time of year.

Here we go! This look might have been interesting a month earlier.

55 this morning and foggy. Looks like the first 80 degree day tomorrow. We will surely see a 90 in April.

I get it, they are annoying. In many cases the requirement comes from local institutions and businesses. The school where I teach developed a COVID protocol based mostly on CDC guidelines, and has followed all state level mandates. Lecturing in a mask is not fun, but I do it, and given there are 12 people sitting in front of me who all come from different states, it seems the prudent thing to do for all involved. Also, there are other things the government requires me to do that I have bigger complaints about, but I wont go there lol.

A head nod and a smile works too. I don't really care to get touchy feely with strangers so much.

eff tradition. Wasn't the origin ancient Greece? What relevance does that have now? Plenty don't wash after grabbing their junk for a piss, or wiping their arse.. no thanks

Looks like 1.85" is the total. 60 degrees at 8pm. Bring on the heat and the hot wind, I guess. Maybe we can dry up some of this mess.

Mount Holly had a great discussion this morning, saying this had similarities to a PRE, similar the setup ahead of a tropical event. That low that was hanging off NC had some semi tropical characteristics before moving inland, and even though it weakened, it maintained a circulation and interacted with the front from the low well to the NW.