CAPE

It hasn't rained in what, 2 weeks? Pretty amazing stretch given how wet it has been here for months. Much needed. Driveway is solid again and the wetland back in the woods has shrunk quite a bit. Less area to seed with mosquito larvicide.

The very dry air mass combined with westerly winds (downsloping) will allow for efficient mixing conditions and dewpoints should fall solidly into the single digits by this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to warm well above guidance into the low 50s in most locations with mid to upper 40s farther north across the higher terrain. Resulting relative humidity values will be in the teens across most of the area for much of the day, uncomfortably dry. For further discussion on the Fire Weather concerns, please refer to the Fire Weather discussion section below. What? Bring it. I will be outside most of the day. I will moisturize so my skin doesn't start to flake off.

Eye high and 101 mph.

The Canadians and Europeans are remarkably similar at h5. Pretty solid look. Get ready up on Mount Manchester.

0z Euro op had rain changing to snow Friday as the low tracks off the coast. EPS suggests that is a possibility. CMC/GEPS are very similar. GFS/GEFS is warmer and all rain. Has more NS energy involved and less ridging over the top.

Latest AFD Denver/Boulder- ...POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY... Despite some of the wild gyrations we`ve seen in model guidance, the overall plan with this storm is still the same. In fact, the latest EC and GEM ensemble data suggest about the same evolution, if not slightly higher totals, than previous runs. The EC ensemble average is now up slightly to about 1.8" liquid equivalent for Denver, the GEM remains at ~2.4", while the GEFS was down to about 1.8", following the lead of the wildly erratic GFS. The bottom line is that the value of the ensemble data is huge in this storm, and we`ll be keeping the forecast relatively unchanged at this point and favoring the EC ensemble blend. This storm has everything going for it, including infusion of rich Gulf of Mexico moisture, a pronounced TROWAL, a persistent period of moderate to strong QG lift, long duration, and strong upslope as long as the 500 mb low tracks across east central/southeast Colorado. So far, most model averages (not the 12Z NAM and GFS) are still sticking with the upper low tracking from near the Four Corners into southeast Colorado, putting northeast Colorado in a very favorable area for strong lift, upslope, and heavy snowfall. We`ve overall kept the forecast relatively unchanged for this event with 14 to 24 inches for the I-25 Urban Corridor, with locally heavier amounts possible toward Boulder and Golden depending on exact track and evolution of the storm, of course. Foothills should see 2 to 4 foot totals with the heaviest favoring Larimer County. Again, any slight change in track could result in much higher/lower amounts. The 10-90% snowfall graphics represent this uncertainty well, with bottom end (10th percentile) 10" amounts along the I-25 Corridor but the 90th percentile showing amounts near 30". Foothills areas go as high as several feet in the 90th percentile, or worst case scenario!

Its a porter, so its a bit "thin" compared to a barrel aged stout. I thought the flavors were all well balanced though. I got the hint of maple, vanilla, and the bourbon. Nothing was overwhelming, which I thought was good. No it isn't a GI BCS by any means, but it is well done and very good in its class.

Good stuff.

I am going with a high gravity selection from DFH...shocker. No, not the 120. Fruit-full Fort.

Boone or Blowing Rock area. Major micro climate. You would get snow there, and beautiful country for hiking etc, but there isn't much else.

GFS has like 5-8" across Denver(a foot just west)..aggressive warmth advecting in from the SE then a bit of a dry slot, meanwhile Euro and CMC are colder with the milder air confined to SE CO, and Denver proper gets crushed with 25"+.

RG3 is looking for work.

Lots of issues-

His name has come up a lot when considering possible trades for a WR. I think he would be too expensive for the Ravens.

I will in certain situations. No colds, no nasty norovirus- had that 2 years in a row in 2017-18. Masks work, and getting really close to people you don't know is kinda weird too when you think about it.

And that has worked out more than drafting one. They have drafted plenty of young receivers the past couple years, and need to see some development/production. A veteran is what they need, and Jones can make those contested catches. A slimmer version of Bolden.

John Brown was a cap casualty released by Buffalo. Ravens could get him back at a reasonable price. ofc injuries are always an issue with him. If they are going to go bigtime WR in free agency, the best match is probably Marvin Jones. He would be a perfect fit for the Ravens.

Yeah a first round pick is a tough ask with the good tackles available in this year's draft. Brown is proven though, multiple pro bowls, and only 24. How about this lol..

NFL is back. FA period and then the draft. One local story is Orlando Brown Jr wanting a trade from the Ravens because he wants to play his natural position at LT. One of the best young tackles in the league, and will want to be paid like it. A trade will be complicated, and the Ravens will want a first round pick most likely. For you Vikings fans, they seem to be one of the teams that are very interested.

If nothing else it looks like the dry period may end by late next week. Yet another pretty interesting h5 look at range, and EPS implies a nice storm, but looks mostly wet for now. GEFS and GEPS are a bit colder, and also hinting at some precip, but more disorganized than the EPS.

Not bad.

Does that include Dr. Seuss outrage posts? I mean, that is some important shit.

Here ya go. Deep fried anything is yum!