CAPE

71 here. This dry period has been much needed. Driveway has been saved, and solid enough to fill in the low spots and get some new stone down. The wetland on the back 40(more like 4) has receded some, so the first dose of larvicide might be a reasonable task. Might hit it this weekend.

This DFH 120 min lasted 4 days in my Fridge. It wont last another. HHH!

Snippet from the Denver AFD this morning.. sounds fun: The storm total snowfall forecasts were a mix of the global ensembles with lower weight placed on the GEFS. Amounts in the Denver metro are in the 15-25 inch range with Boulder and Fort Collins in the 20-30 inch range. The foothills will see the highest amounts with 2 to 4 feet likely. Given a more southerly track of this system, it would not surprise me to see a location or two in the northern foothills reach 5 feet. The area of highest uncertainty with regards to impacts will be the eastern plains. Amounts could be below Winter Storm Warning criteria there if the warmer solutions pan out. Or those areas could see close to a foot of snow with high impacts. There is high confidence in the impacts for the urban corridor and foothills with nearly impossible travel conditions Saturday night and Sunday. The Winter Storm Watch was kept due to the uncertainty with snowfall amounts with this storm especially farther east.

Lists are subjective. Definitely some good bands on there.

Clown Core is better.

Nickelback is pretty awful. Coldplay is worse.

All travel restrictions should be lifted, and I am talking international too. Any variant that pops up outside the US ends up here anyway, because there are plenty of exemptions for those restrictions- just not for the majority who would like to travel.

over-under 60 wins for the Os? I haven't paid much attention, but unless they have several pitching prospects that are ready to step up, who they got than can get outs?

GEFS Trending... Means are generally warmer with more ridging out in front of the closed low in the central US, and the press from the NA vortex is weaker as it is further east, more notably on the EPS. Hard to win with this setup esp in mid March, as relaxation in the confluence might allow any wave propagating eastward to not be completely shredded, but it will be warmer and the precip will probably still be on the light side. EPS has an inch or less of snow fwiw.

Yeah its a very solid stout and cost effective.

Just got home and its 65 here. Beautiful out.

Oh it isn't done yet. And wait until the poor VA weenies see their GFS snow for next week dwindle to next to nothing over the next few runs. I am sure they know better.

I know. And even though it was obvious I was trolling and never want to see it posted here again, it will surely appear.

Can we get a control run up in here?

I did have that one. Pretty much everything Founders does is good. This one doesn't deviate. It was just a tad on the sweet side iirc, but again, they almost never miss the mark. They always seem to get the background flavors just right- nothing too forward. Try the Panther Cub if you see that one. Very good.

Means are colder and flatter, but also crushed in the confluence and weakish/suppressed. EPS/GEFS/GEPS all showing a little something precip wise early next week. Snow maps have an inch or 2, GEFS has more ofc and likes VA, as does the op. Worth tracking but these damping waves running into confluence didn't yield much in the heart of winter, and it will be mid March. Need some legit ascent/rates this time of year.

This goes back to my "pick your path to defeat" post of yesterday am. Now we back to that shitt. Either way, Its not happening!!

I have had some in my mulch beds all winter. Starting to pop up in the lawn now.

He was specifically bemoaning the 'degradation' - as he sees it- of the early week storm potential. His disaster/venting posts always have an element of universality.

I am referring to the Monday timeframe. See my post this morning based on the EPS/GEFS from 0z. Either way it would be tough to pull off, and an "in between" scenario has never seemed very likely. Yes in general it can snow in March anywhere in our region and even down into NC. We have seen it a lot in recent years. It still might, but I don't like the odds for the Sun-Tuesday timeframe at this juncture. I really don't like the h5 look much going forward either, so I am pretty pessimistic about seeing a widespread 4"+ event anywhere other than the elevated western areas of our region.

And then only 2 more months after that before it snows.

I put some grass seed down yesterday. Now that the cold is exiting, I will start watering that area. With the increasing sun angle and soil warming up, It might germinate in the next 10 days. Can't have a tropical deluge washing it away lol.

Objectively there was never a path to victory.

Snippet from latest AFD Denver/Boulder- There`s getting to be better agreement now on a large upper low moving slowly from Southern California Thursday across the southern Rockies Saturday and to the central plains by Monday. There are still some differences in the latitude and timing, but really given such a large, slow moving system, they may not be that important. The main story is that there`s a pretty good chance of a prolonged period of at least light snow, and possibly a period of heavy snow, for most of our area. The chance of significant snow looks greatest Friday and Saturday from about Denver southward, though there are some model solutions that have the significant precipitation further north or have steady precipitation all the way from Thursday night through Monday morning. Most model QPF for the Friday through Saturday period ranges from 1 to 3 inches. There are heavier solutions. It should be cold enough for this to be mostly snow, at least at 5000 feet and probably across the area.

I would probably take my chances with the confluence and a well timed flatter wave, even though this scenario has resulted in shredding or suppression a lot this winter. It is the colder look, and we don't have the blocking we had earlier. Otoh, a more amped wave coming in a bit later might have more upside for the western highlands, and maybe even your hood, but for the lowlands in mid March..