CAPE

Well, a half inch or less there probably doesn't bode well for snow in your yard.

Mount Holly on snow chances. A tad different than that Ukie snow map above lol. For those who enjoy Spring snow, our eyes turn to the behind the cold front as cold air will race southeastward into the region by Thursday morning. I`m not to terribly bullish on wintry precipitation however with the cold air surging, its becoming increasingly likely that we`ll see rain turning to snow for the Poconos however it will likely be highly elevation dependent. Generally less than half an inch will be possible but with an increasing solar angle we may not see very much actually accumulate.

Latest AFD from Mount Holly- As the midnight shift mentioned this morning and I`ll repeat verbatim, "it is becoming clear is that the large-scale pattern is favorable for an axis of decently high QPF, with upper-level flow becoming increasingly parallel to the surface front. With intense large-scale ascent via differential cyclonic vorticity advection and warm/moist low- level advection, precipitation will be widespread and fairly long-duration (despite the fast movement of the surface low)." So the challenge is where exactly does that axis of heavy precip develop? Based on trends in model guidance, forecast keeps the heaviest precip over our CWA with the highest totals (1-1.5") just east of the I-95 corridor. While subtle shifts are likely within the guidance of the next couple of days, I anticipate we`ll see at least some portion of the forecast area will recieve a prolonged 6+ hours of moderate to at times heavy rain even as the system is gaining speed moving to towards the northeast. As such, we`ve introduced heavy rain wording into the forecast for the Wednesday afternoon and overnight time periods.

Guess where WPC has the axis of heaviest rain for Wed currently. Still some disparity across guidance. Hopefully no more than an inch.

Sudden wind.

73/64 Feels humid.

Temp has jumped to 73. Windy too.

Been partly sunny here the past hour.

Looks like the overrunning part is done. Only 0.18" here. 2.95" for the month currently.

Yeah it looks like maybe some isolated straight line wind damage, and an outside chance of a weak tornado SE. A run of the mill gusty storm with some T&L would be nice.

Warm frontal overrunning about to clear the area. No thunder here. Lets see if we can get the surface cooking now.

Raining pretty good here now. Haven't heard any thunder yet.

Just drizzle/light rain here. Looks like this first round may stay mostly to my NW. I'm not mad. It would be the first rain underperformer in about a year lol.

Not really LR anymore, but the mid to late week storm looks like it may be an impressive rain producer for our region. Latest AFD from Mount Holly- As the low approaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, considerable large-scale lift will be in place via right- entrance region upper divergence from a favorably positioned 250-mb jet streak, strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the advancing, more neutrally-tilted trough, and substantial warm/moist advection on the northern periphery of a poleward-advancing warm sector. Models indicate widespread precipitation developing in this regime, convectively enhanced near the approaching front and in vicinity of the intensifying surface low. Model soundings do indicate some instability in the pre-frontal warm sector, especially if the surface low tracks farther west. Have added thunder to the forecast for much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is quite possible with this setup, especially since upper-level flow will become oriented mostly parallel to the approaching front (thanks in large part to the high- amplitude ridging downstream). QPF of 1-2+ inches is depicted with the CMC/ECMWF (50+ percent less in the GFS/ICON). Given the potential convective enhancement of the precipitation and a couple of antecedent soaking rain events, this seems like a setup that favors some flooding potential. Will monitor this closely as the event approaches. In addition, very strong cold advection will occur on the upstream side of the cold front, with temperatures dropping 10-20 degrees in a matter of a few hours after frontal passage. The cold conveyor belt of the intensifying surface low, along with favorable frontogenetical forcing/deformation, may produce a band of precipitation on the west/northwest side of the low that lingers for several hours. Thermal profiles would favor a switchover to snow for the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, perhaps resulting in some accumulations Thursday morning.

Lol wait until Wed-Thurs.

Yes it is, and thanks. Did it on the cheap a couple years ago and it turned out pretty good. The motivation was to further lessen the grass area, which is hard as hell to keep going in the woods and with the silty/sandy soil here. The wetland is back in the woods towards the left in that photo.

The morning round would be elevated convection on the backside of the initial wave with the warm front. If there is a decent period of clearing, the afternoon round might be a tad interesting. Without surface heating the inversion will hold and any severe will be isolated at best. Severe looks more likely in central and esp SE VA.

After mowing the chickweed down, the grass(and clover) look pretty good. Beginning of the "good lawn " period. That will last until about mid June here, then it will gradually burn to hell from the Solstice through August. Then it is rinse and repeat in the Fall. Or just give up lol.

Enhanced risk for SE VA now.

Time to mow the chickweed.

Euro/EPS is more amplified and not as progressive as the GFS, so that would be the evolution to root for to get a chance of frozen for the MA. Even that as depicted would favor the western highlands and maybe places like NE PA- typical climo favored regions for Spring snow.

43 this morning. Looks like a beautiful Spring day. Good day to be outside. Tomorrow not so much.

Friday looks like the best day for winter-like conditions right now. Saturday doesn't look bad either, but probably above freezing by afternoon.

Sure it can snow in early April. Even had a couple inches here years ago. This doesn't look like the synoptic setup to do it though. Basically it would be an anafrontal deal. That will be cold chasing rain most of the time, and esp in Spring. Looks pretty good for interior NE, with a coastal low forming up that way.

They needed a veteran presence. They have a bunch of young WRs, and they will probably draft another one. Less pressure to make it a first round pick though, where they usually bust picking a receiver. Interestingly, Watkin's best season was in Buffalo when Roman was the OC.