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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    38 and cloudy here.
  2. CAPE
    HL blocking defo makes it more interesting.
  3. CAPE
    Leaves and sticks. Damn wind. Can never keep the leaves where I want them.
  4. CAPE
    Time to let the chips fall. My forecast is for 2-4" with some sleet, and there is also a "concern" for several hundredths of an inch ice accretion at some point tomorrow, before changing back to snow tomorrow evening. Time to focus on the next one, and the one after that. It ain't boring, folks.
  5. CAPE
    My deck is elevated and screwed.
  6. CAPE
    Some improvement on the 12z EPS. Stronger/souther NA vortex...better confluence...stronger surface high pressure compared to 0z. Still work to do.
  7. CAPE
    Need to park a barge out there. Sure see a lot of digital snow on the models after a cold front blasts off the coast following our big rainstorms lol.
  8. CAPE
    I don't think it has finished yet lol.
  9. CAPE
    I am going with the Euro/3km NAM/Para/WRF blend with this one, assuming they don't take a single tick north from this point on- which is unlikely lol.
  10. CAPE
    Happy to see there is such a large area offshore that will receive up to 3" of snow.
  11. CAPE
    If the effing north trend would stop, some of us outside of the northern tier would do ok. But I mean, what are these runs going to look like at 18z? My yard is tickled by the 850 0c line for a panel on most guidance now, which probably isn't a disaster- yet- but the indications are strong.
  12. CAPE
    Imo there was no way both waves were going to be legit and hit the same area. With the first wave stronger, (and confluence to our NE not as strong as advertised, esp on the Euro) it goes norther, and in its wake it pulls the boundary further south. Had the lead wave been a weak pos, I think the second one would have probably been good for N and C VA and much of MD, DE.
  13. CAPE
    It's late to that game.
  14. CAPE
    As of this moment it still shows 6" of digital snow(3 in the real world) but that is likely going to change in about 30 mins.
  15. CAPE
    lol It will probably eff me on temps more than precip when it makes the expected jump north, but might be both!
  16. CAPE
    I never look past the one right in front of me when it gives me snow. if the trend stopped right now it would still be decent here,. One more tick and its mostly sleet. Ofc the GFS also wants to eff me on precip, but it is the only model really doing that.
  17. CAPE
    He has a way with words..
  18. CAPE
    Most guidance still looks decent for over here outside of the GFS, but there would be some sleet mixed in, which is fine. Not much margin for error though. Need the souther solutions of the bunch to be more correct.
  19. CAPE
    Still need the EURO to completely cave. 6z run was still quite good for many.
  20. CAPE
    WSW will probably be going up for the southern tier counties of PA. Maybe even into central PA, as the north trend continues.
  21. CAPE
    Looking Euroish.
  22. CAPE
    I like the juice over this way on the 3k NAM even though it might not be all snow.
  23. CAPE
    NAMs are sleety here.
  24. CAPE
    Overall things look good for a general light to perhaps moderate event. Problem is there will probably be an area that will receive lighter qpf on the south side for wave 1, and could also miss wave 2 completely- and it might coincide with the same places that have been screwed recently. So yeah there is some angst.
  25. CAPE
    But we were told the late north trend doesn't happen in these types of setups.
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