CAPE

You can mostly thank the EPAC for the cold dump out west. Nina says hiii.

SPV looks like it may be getting up off the mat, and the -AO period may be nearing an end. Bring it. I bet we see more cold air intrusions than we have had all winter. Wouldn't take much lol.

28 here. Figures it would rain when surface temps are decently cold for once lol.

I noticed Dorchester was added too.

Not thrilled with the wetter trends. Hopefully the heavier stuff stays just to my south/east.

The primary issue now/this coming week is the PAC ridge, which is a common Nina feature. That tends to favor cold dumping west and the SER rearing up. That has not been the 'problem' for the most part up until now though. I guess you could argue the robust -AO/NAO suppressed it, and now we have a relaxation up top.. Shit just has a way of being more out of sync and screwing things up here for snow chances a Nina. Very anecdotal I know, but hard to argue if you live in the MA lol.

I think we both know it is not simply the Enso state, but just going strictly with historical data, even with blocking, there are more issues with getting above avg snow here during a Nina. The obvious difference is the jet configuration, specifically the absence of a stj.

That one has been discussed. As things look now, it probably wont work out for our area, but still plenty of time. It does appear it will deal a major blow to the SER though, and possibly be the impetus for a 50-50 low to reestablish, as you can see in the panel I posted.

Nothing happens in isolation. Who knows. My wag is it was ultimately somehow Nina related. There seems to be a tendency for subtle shifts to go the wrong way for the MA at the wrong times in a Nina.

This advertised look ain't too shabby to close out Feb.

That doesn't mean we don't see another decent blocking episode. The propensity for -AO/NAO began well ahead of any SPV perturbation. The NAO simply effed us for this period by retrograding practically to western Canada at exactly the wrong time.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-023-024-131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.210213T1300Z-210214T1200Z/ New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD- Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-Cape May- Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Pennsville, Millville, Cape May Court House, and Ocean City 321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland and central, northern and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 8 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible due to icy roadways, especially Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

This ice storm is mine.

The storm late next week may or may not work out for our region, but it looks like it will knock down the SE/WA ridge and potentially set us up for the end of the month.

LOL. Decent chance things improve and we have more favorable periods ahead. The next week is going to offer some wintry weather, so its not like awful, but we need to shift that trough east to get back into a pattern where it is more favorable for snow.

It hasn't been an issue, but it is now, which fits most of the LR predictions heading through Feb. The relaxation in the -NAO is untimely. The current/advertised H5 pattern sure looks like a Nina, and since we are in a Nina, I will keep it simple and call a duck a duck lol.

Yeah I didn't do very well lol. Was more just a current observation.

Way too many trees here. A light ice coating might look nice and add to the winter scene. Beyond that, no thanks.

My kind of ice 'storm'. A tenth.

Nice pack freshener for the jack zone.

Not much meltage yesterday, and should be less today. We did ok considering. Don't have to drive too far south to find barely anything otg.

Dusting in Easton from the northern edge of wave 2. Nothing on the ground from wave 1. Interesting driving down here, There was some light snow cover in the northern half of Talbot Co, but nothing much south of that.

Outside of a light glaze, eff ice storms. Luckily, despite what models often advertise, it rarely materializes over here. This upcoming week is going to be a waste of prime snow climo in the end. Goddam Nina.