CAPE

Getting the good front end isn't as critical up where you are as the warming aloft occurs slower and doesn't last as long, outside of maybe the NAM.

I'm blaming the alcohol.

Dammit you quoted my post before I fixed my homophone abuse.

Absolutely. But we need the precip to come in quick and heavy for some decent snow, because there is no denying the warming aloft.

Eh its frozen in the end. I hate it when I am expecting all snow and I start to hear the pingers. In this setup, I would take it over freezing rain, and given the uncertainty, even up your way I would be prepared to see more than you expect or want.

Given the advertised strong LLJ and the likely warming from 850-700mb, imo 2-4" is a win along/east of I95 before a flip to sleet/zr. This is far from an ideal set up for the lowlands.

Wait, the other day you said you weren't picky.

Nice thump for DC-Balt and over this way on the 18z GFS.

Yeah this has trended colder at the surface, at least. The warm nose aloft is one issue, and that is a beast on the NAMs, the other is how this storm is morphing from a nice front end thump to a one-two punch sort of a deal. There will likely be an area that largely misses out on both if that verifies. The front end is where it is at for places further south/east because there will be legit cold/dry air in place. Just need the goddamn precip to come in hot and heavy to mitigate the warming aloft for a few hours. If it is delayed or light, forget it.

I will keep hugging the Para until it screws me. Coming soon..

Mylar Wizard DIPA for HH. Another good one from Black Flag.

I know where my yard is. I tracked this thing and contributed, but now is the time to stay in banter for me. I will take my sleet, fr rain, and probably plain rain, and like hate it.

NAM is a sleet/zr bomb for most verbatim.

Need a far NW burb thread for these kinds of events.

The Para is my favorite.

This is an improvement from the 0z run with the heavier precip coming in through the DC area. 850s are getting warmish already during this time though. Maybe heavier precip can keep it mostly snow.

colder trends, more sleet doe. might end up more snow doe. i doubt it, because i am a negative nancy.

Overall trends are colder, with the coastal low more dominant and taking a pretty good track. Need the waa on the front end to come in fast and be furious in order for the lowlands to have a fighting chance at some snow accumulation before the warm nose intrudes. NW areas are looking good as usual.

Yeah I thought it looked great up top and out in front. Tad slower though. 0z will be telling. And yes great post by him. He continues to impress.

lol I realize that.

Garbage run here. Toss.

Pretty good stuff. Not a huge milk stout fan but that one is nice. You know I prefer the high gravity imperials.

lol ofc they are.

SREFs look just like the NAM. pick your emote.