CAPE

Who knows. ENSO forecast is to trend neutral for Spring and Summer. Flip a coin beyond that.

Tony Pann needs to feed his fan nerds.

Pretty marginal. If it were to continue well into tonight, they might.

29 here now. Tree branches look pretty. Harmless so far. Just the way I like it.

ermahgerd ice storm.

It turns out 30 degree rain in mid Feb during the day is mostly just rain. Some light slushy ice coating deck railings etc, but most surfaces just wet. Might be more interesting if it is still precipitating later.

Even he would be hard pressed to find much to like about the upcoming week.

It's called MYASS

A lot like December and much of January.

Lets hope they are equally wrong about where the pattern heads by the end of the month. If that's the way its going, we may have a chance or 2 as the longwave pattern progresses east beginning late next week and before it transitions to full on Nina Pac dumpster fire.

lol I was just looking at that.

I agree that effed things up, but that ship has sailed. The wave train in the Pac is such that the mean ridge is too far west. Idk, the tendency for a big ridge in that location looks Nina-ish to me, but whatever the causes, without the blocking and the trough/cold dumping out west, there isn't going to be much to inhibit the SER until there is a progression in the longwave pattern- we at least need the western ridge axis near the west coast.

Unless temps drop some, the mid Feb sun radiating through the clouds should mitigate it somewhat. This evening and overnight would pose a bigger risk.

Light rain just started here. Temp up to 30. It will be interesting to see just how much of it freezes during the daytime. Don't think roads will be much of a problem here.

"Normal" temps for late Feb.

Same here. To be expected this time of year even with the clouds, unless temps are way below freezing. It seemed to continue overnight, mostly in the areas that receive the most sun exposure, but wet soil conditions and no real cold to freeze the top layer leading in doesn't help.

I lost a little more snow overnight with temps in the upper 20s. Mid Feb sun and moist, unfrozen soil doing the work.

lol Useless. I usually only see those when WW posts them.

Yeah its all relative. I broke into double digits so hard to complain. This week looks meh for most of us though outside of some freezing rain chances. Looked more promising a week or so ago. The NW crew should be more interested.

I think we are right in the middle of our epic period now. The level of epicness is difficult to put into words.

I will keep an eye on the late week deal, because it is far enough out and colder air will be coming east on the backside. Maybe a trailing wave possibility.

The medium and LR threads were merged. I have little interest in the events this week, because I find rain to be uninteresting in winter. I prefer to focus on

Pretty sure all of them are at this juncture. The GFS also has warm rain for the end of the week.

Cold rain is fun. Freezing cold rain is more fun.

There will be some volatility in the transition, and I would guess we see the coldest air of the winter in the next 10-14 days. With a little luck/timing we might get a good storm. The coldest low temp here so far is 21. Have had low 20s a few times, on perfect radiational cooling nights. No teens. All the events that produced snow here featured rain or sleet at the beginning, middle, or end. Temps were 29-33 when snow was falling. So while it has been chilly overall, definitely not cold. Just ask the DC folks.