CAPE

My WAG is cool neutral. Official CPC ENSO forecast favors neutral conditions into the Fall. Beyond that who knows. Latest CFS v2 ensemble mean has neutral transitioning to weak Nina for Winter.

This is probably how it will go. WA ridge that sets up in that position this time of year usually flexes and doesn't break down too quick.

Similar to last week, a couple stellar days after today, and Friday should be nice too but transitioning to more humid.

Storms missed just north last night. Looks like any decent heavier showers will be just SE of my yard today. Might pick up a quarter inch, but the latest mesos look pretty pathetic for here lol.

0.00 I got to hear 2 rounds of thunder though as places literally a few miles north got hit twice.

We suck at severe. And anything else fun or interesting. Heat and humidity is our thing.

Looks like another bust here. Hopefully there will be some decent showers on the backside tomorrow morning. Otherwise its sprinkler time.

Yeah that WAR looks pretty stout on guidance, and not in any hurry to move. Southerly/sw flow between the developing trough to the west and that ridge will make it sultry here again for the weekend and into next week.

Maybe

This wont help much out west.

Fwiw at this juncture, ENSO neutral conditions look to persist through Fall, and are favored to continue into winter. Not that it matters that much anymore lol. The ground truth differences between Nino-Nina-Neutral in winter are pretty ambiguous the last 5-6 years for the MA, east of the highlands. Exception being Mount PSU ofc.

89 here. Temps wont be busting low today.

After Met summer is over, we have extended summer for 2 more months, then Fall for 4 months until Spring returns.

Had about a 30 second downpour last evening that yielded 0.03". Heard a lot of thunder in the early morning hours but no rain from that. Some place nearby got something.

Yeah mine are older mophead plants I think, based on the color and pH dependency. I will pay more attention to pruning and cut back only a portion of the oldest branches in the Fall going forward. I think what I did last Fall was more aggressively cut everything back, and not really knowing what I was doing, it turned out to be the right thing given the age and the fact it had not produced blooms for multiple years.

Time to move discussion to the other thread. Maybe a few garden variety storms later as the front drops in. A quarter inch or so of rain would be nice. On to Tuesday I guess. As it looks now, timing might not be ideal.

Finally the sun is out. A tad late. High temp only busted by 7 degrees.

Latest mesos get most of the action going right along the fall line and forming more of a line moving southeastward. 18z NAM nest suggestive of a few discrete cells followed by a multicellular line towards the coast.

Looks like you moved from one downsloping/rain shadow area to another. You should have headed a bit further west lol.

80/71 Still a thin cloud layer here. Much brighter and sun finally breaking out. See if temps get a boost into the mid 80s now.

SPC has adjusted/expanded the slight risk area further south.. OH to Mid Atlantic Region... Overnight convection has resulted in a large canopy of mid/high clouds across portions of eastern OH and western/central PA. This will significantly limit daytime heating and destabilization later today. Therefore, have adjusted the SLGT risk area farther south into parts of OH/WV/MD where stronger heating is expected, and where CAM guidance in is better agreement regarding thunderstorm development. A shortwave trough currently over Lower MI will help to initiate storms across northern OH by mid-afternoon, with storms tracking southeastward through the evening.

Think I may have found the answer. Apparently blue hydrangeas should only be pruned late summer. And they don't necessarily need to be cut back every Fall- although mine is older so apparently it is the thing to do.. a bit confusing. I guess whatever combo I did this time just happened to work lol.

Pleasantly surprised to see blooms on my hydrangea. Have not had any the past few years. I just figured the tree canopy had grown to the point where it wasn't getting enough sunlight. I cut them back the same as always. Hasn't been a water issue. Anyone have any ideas?

I can feel the juice in the air compared to early this morning. It was quite comfortable then with a temp of 71. Currently 79/70 with thinning clouds.