CAPE

New edition of CanSIPS for December. At least what little cold there is would be close by. That look in the E Pacific might allow for some delivery.

Damn, the Jets. Who the hell is Mike White? I guess the front runners who were convinced the Bengals were the best team in the AFC last week will be off that bandwagon. Back to Buffalo I guess, which is actually the best team.

-PNA is a winter wrecker.

I literally told you what to google to find all the basic info, and more if you wanted to go there. I teach for a living too. Always challenge your students.

All versions of the WWS are a bit "thin", and lightly carbonated. Probably related to the 17-18% abv. This is as good as the original imo with some additional complexity from the Utopias barrels. Let it warm and it really opens up. I also really like the bourbon barrel aged edition. The oak aged vanilla version is good, but I wont get that if the others are available.

He needs to put in some effort and learn more than the easy button shallow overview. No substitute for having a more profound understanding of the mechanisms, esp given this is a major driver for winter patterns and he seems very interested in understanding why above average snowfall doesn't happen here on the reg. Bad teacher!!

Sipping on a World Wide Stout aged in Utopias barrels. Big and complex, as expected. Did I mention its a sipper?

It wasn't snobbish lol. If you simply search "understanding ENSO" you will be off and running, including finding the 'geek stuff'. Everyone can be an expert on everything because Google!

The 6z GFS is sharper/digs the NS shortwave more as it drops in from north of the Lakes, thus a bit more precip/snow for the mountains this run.

1.28" total here. Looking forward to some stellar Autumn weather over the next several days. Leaf blowing season is here.

The upcoming chilly period has been well advertised on guidance for a while now. The pattern, and climo, is favorable for western highland snow, from upslope if nothing else.

You are asking some very basic questions here. Maybe read a little bit about ENSO, trade winds, and ocean thermocline.

Where did I say you should be optimistic about the chances of seeing even mean snowfall? I have told you several times that 'expecting' median is more realistic.

Up to 0.92" after that last round. Wind has been a bust, and that's fine with me.

I'm sure. Won't be me. I loved the dry period, just not the temps and humidity. Getting a bit too wet now, and my yard has been in the jip zone compared to other locales. Give me 2 weeks of rainless, seasonably cool weather after today.

That looks quite a bit more 'impressive' than the exact same panel on TT. Gotta love WB.

A little wind.. a little rain. 0.33" lol. Looks like some heavier stuff incoming. I'm way good with getting an inch or less total here. Might get more interesting over the next few hours.

Latest from the CFS for week 6 fwiw. Not a terrible look up top and in the EPAC at h5. Suggestive of -EPO/AO and at least a neutral NAO. Verbatim no cold air anywhere close by though lol.

I'm not overly enthused about some anomalously 'favorable' pattern setting up over the next month. Guidance has been persistent in suggesting some seasonable weather and even a period of slightly below normal temps, mostly courtesy of a +PNA, so I will gladly take that if it is also mostly dry. We'll see how things look on guidance in a few weeks as we head into December. For many of us, getting a winter storm in November or even early December is pretty rare.

Take on severe potential from Mount Holly- Severe thunderstorms/tornadoes: Instability will be quite limited. However, even with a marginal instability, a few thunderstorms are possible, primarily in Delmarva. Any thunderstorms in the vicinity of the occluded front will be developing in an area with significant wind shear and helicity. Thus, rotating storms will be possible in this area. The higher threat for this looks to be further south from our region near the front during the period of max mixing, but will have to watch if the front progresses north faster than currently forecast, the risk for rotating storms could develop as far north as northern Delmarva.

October...November.. all the same with the rate of change of snow cover advance in Eurasia evidently. goin' weaken that PV!

we good for early winter.

Other than some moderate to heavy rainfall, the wind looks to be a bit of a concern here under a strong LLJ, with gusts of 45 mph possible tomorrow. Looks like the immediate coasts of MD and DE could see some 55 mph gusts.

A few would meltdown. Most won't care much. I sure wouldn't. A Mild winter would be lovely for doing outside stuff. I would embrace it.