CAPE

^Looks pretty similar to 0z overall. A bit more expansive with the precip at that point.

I usually find myself watching videos from NW Japan about this time every winter.

The primary 'problem' we are seeing on the latest op runs is the advertised amplitude(and progression) of the western ridge. The image below is from the Euro- the ridge folds over(breaks) and that peels off a TPV lobe that crashes down and obliterates that southern vorticity ribbon. At this range the amplitude/progression/axis of the ridge and the degree (and location) of NS energy that drops in are likely not representative of the actual outcome. We need the NS to constructively interact with the southern energy, which mostly involves timing. There is a reason we rely more on the ensembles at this range.

CMC ens reasonably close for 6+ days out GEFS continued improvement...

EPS looks pretty good to me.

A couple things- an atmospheric block literally blocks the flow- slows it down and kinks it, giving storms more of an opportunity to track underneath and up the coast instead of progressing off to the east. When we get a classic block in the NA, it is a west based -NAO with anomalously high heights across Davis Strait/Baffin, and that is usually accompanied by a quasi stationary vortex (50-50 low) off of the Canadian Maritimes. So we have a low to our NE and we end up with HP to our N/NW (no GL low!) which is exactly what we want to keep cold air in place as storms approach from the SW. In the current pattern those HP areas tend to slide off the coast and turn the flow more easterly off the Atlantic, and getting a coastal low to track in the right spot for snow is more of a thread the needle deal. As we have seen this winter when we do have a cold trough in place over the east, the tendency is for storms to form further off shore.

HH GEFS is significantly better.

The perils of a progressive pattern. Timing has to be impeccable. This is a primary reason why we want a blocking regime.

That interaction needs to take place a bit further west like the Euro, which was pretty close to something bigger. Ridge axis a tad too far east on the GFS. Overall a pretty radical set up with the amped up look. Nice potential.

But the 0z run looked like this and you thought it was ok.

Early March can produce different outcomes than say early Jan even if the state of the drivers largely remain the same.

Not bad at this juncture. Ask me how worried I am about the GFS lol.

12z EPS is souther than 0z, but not crushed/nonexistent like the GEFS. Canadian ens mean has a storm too but it is further south than the EPS.

It was pretty close to something big. Brings the NS energy in behind with some snow showers and then COLD.

It's a bit odd given the track of the low but its another op run that shows a storm and that's the take away.

Yeah it goes to rain, but we got a storm.

She looks good

The pretty WB snow map from the ICON(SUCKS) run.

As usual it comes down to the subtle interactions between the southern wave and the NS shortwave(s) dropping in downstream of the amplifying ridge. ICON got it done much like the Euro did, but even simpler. GFS is messier in the NS and timing is off so it just kicks it. We just cant know, and hopefully the ensembles will shed some light and not just play follow the leader.

No, this is the @losetoa6 storm.

Agreed. This one looks more interesting for places up near the PA line. It is the storm to track right now so I will keep an eye on it.

As a science based person on a science based forum, not starting a thread to track and discuss the details of a stable discrete storm threat because jinx!!! is beyond silly.

The Sunday/Monday storm much less crushed on the 6z GEFS.