CAPE

Perpetual. Should be rapidly winding down over the next couple weeks. Love that layer cake off to the right.

That's a given. And you can have that a day or 2 before and after a paste bomb.

March 14 > 93 March 15 > 93 We aren't getting those though. I will take a storm like March of 18 over 93. This is an IMBY bizness.

It's a crapshoot, and it wasn't my idea to name storms after me lol. (well the Jan 3 one maybe given the crap pattern we were in at the time I got bullish on that window). The last one(the fail for this Sunday)I just saw as a sneaky chance with that trailing wave after the storm of last night went by and the boundary sinking south, with colder air in place. It looked promising for a few days, but as has often been the case this winter, the guidance was pretty far off on the timing and placement of the NS feature(s) at range.

At this juncture I would put my money(about a dollar) on the March 8-12 window for a possible modest to moderate winter storm based on the currently advertised pattern progression on the means.

Probably not, but you never know. It has been hinting at a little something for that timeframe but that sort of a look will almost always be underwhelming east of the mountains and/or end up further north.

I went back and looked at my photos and it was more of an all day event here on the 21st, but didn't really get going good until early afternoon. Heaviest was late afternoon into the early evening.

Yeah I don't remember it melting that fast. Ofc the height of it here was late afternoon I think with the deform band.

The medium range looks pretty active but for now it looks like most of the action will be north of us. Looking ahead, recent GFS op runs have advertised a winter storm that takes a more favorable track for our region around the 10th. Looks active leading up to that and the pattern looks decent, but it remains to be seen if anything can track underneath. The best h5 look on the GEFS is centered on March 10 with a favorable AO and NAO, indication low heights off the Canadian Maritimes, and there is a bit of a signal for a storm. Still out in fantasyland and it is getting kinda late.

Rained most of the night with the temp right at 32. A bit of a glaze on the deck railing and tree branches, but nothing too significant. More rain that I expected though given how dry some of the guidance looked. 0.42" and still raining lightly. Temp up to 33.

Temp down to 32 now. Dry out there though. Not sure I will see much more than a tenth total for the 'event'.

I remember that one I think. I was just a kid and it was a nearly snowless winter and the forecast was for 1-2" iirc. Ended up with close to a foot. School let out early and fun times sledding late that afternoon.

33 and maybe some mist out there. Not even drizzle lol. 0.02" total. Quite an event so far!

2018 was a good one. Classic paste bomb even here. Think I ended up with 7" or so, and you probably did better iirc. Ofc that was another one of those recent "good" Nina winters for eastern areas in general.

Temp down to 33 here, but only 0.02" of drizzle. Generally just a cold, gray winter day. I'm not hating it. Pretty cool contrast from yesterday when it was 70 and sunny.

All subject to change. Significant model errors in ridge amplitude/ axis and timing of northern stream energy coming south is likely at this range. (as we just saw with the failed Sunday-Monday potential).

Yeah I saw that on the GFS. It looks like something that would probably end up further NE. Already coming in a bit too far east at an odd trajectory for our area. Could always trend the other way though!

yeah I need to load up on omega-6

12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look.

Good luck. This event has been pretty much locked in for days now with some frozen/freezing precip up that way. I just hope the road crews have something better to do around here than drop a bunch of salt on the roads.

36 here. Looks like some chilly light rain today and maybe a more substantial chilly rain tonight. Temps should be pretty steady here until rising later tonight.

The Super bowl day event trended right into the lap of Psu land. It was pretty localized but it trended NW across guidance in the few days prior, well other than the GFS, which never figured that one out.

This might of been the worst storm thread since the internet was invented in 1995 There was no requirement for you to follow it. You probably weren't getting snow from it even if it had transpired.

Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.