CAPE

I agree. This was always a wave or 2 moving along a progressive cold front. The guidance generally depicted a relatively brief area of forcing, and somewhat localized, behind the front in the colder air. We suck at anafrontal, regardless of temps.

After an hour of mostly light sleet, changed to snow here in the last 30 mins with some big flakes coming down now and a temp of 32. Sun peaking out though lol. Unfortunately most of the precip is over. Good shot of rain as expected. 0.81" Looks like cold and windy with snow showers the rest of the afternoon.

34.5 with moderate sleet, and wind ofc.

Wind suddenly kicked up and temp fell 5 degrees pretty quickly. Down to 42. Moderate to heavy rain. 0.66" so far.

Nice. Change that profile photo, at least for a day.

I like the look of this window for my yard. Some of that is rain and then sleety verbatim on the 6z GFS, but temps are crashing during this time and it might be hanging onto a warm layer aloft that could be overcome with the heavier precip. If its a tad colder later in this period I might end up with 3" instead of an inch or so.

47 with moderate rain here. Just started in the last 20 mins.

I am more interested in getting the fertilizer soaked in lol. Grass already greening up nicely. I am hoping for a decent few hours later with a combo of light to moderate snow falling, big wind, and crashing temps. That would be fun to watch, and I am not really concerned about how much. An inch would get me over 20, so I suppose that's my "bar".

1-3" is the forecast, which I guess is about right given the range of guidance, but I would be surprised to see more than an inch. The best forcing within the cold air looks to happen west of here, and it doesn't look as impressive on latest guidance. Your area gets in on it, but then it seems to shift more to the NE.

Not even an advisory here so I wont even bother looking out the window today. If I end up with a couple inches it won't count.

You forgot the flash freeze and the white-out squalls. Deep winter and stuff.

This should have been a great event out there. Color me surprised at how this has (apparently) evolved. Never woulda thunk it a few days ago. Still having a hard time believing the corridor will do better, but evidence seems to be mounting.

Welcome, Spring.

Funny, but since you do important FB forecasting for soccer moms, I am sure you aren't conflating here.

You can have blizzard conditions without any snow falling at all. It is all about visibility.

Been busy with work and haven't really tracked the latest trends. Not sure how I feel about the NAMs or even the Euro over this way. Gut still says this is mostly rain for my yard with maybe a quick shot of snow at the end and maybe a coating. Looking pretty good now for places along and esp NW of I-95. Beautiful out right now. Heading out to put some fertilizer on the grass so the rain can soak it in.

27 with freezing fog.

This is still primarily a rain event for areas along and east of I-95, despite what the latest Euro runs are depicting. I just can't see it. And there likely won't be a prolonged sleetfest either. This is a pretty clear cut cold chasing precip situation imo. Sure there could be a brief period of frozen but not likely anything significant for the lowlands. Remains to be seen how areas NW of the Fall line can do with this, but better odds for at least a couple inches. This still looks like a moderate snow event for places far west/NW, maybe heavy for the far western highlands.

A lot of precip for here. Mostly rain and sleet. Pass.

Looks good to me.

A lock at your place in Canaan. With winds of 40 mph and crashing temps. Would be a shame to stay in Winchester and be disappointed again.

Reich was probably his only supporter. Irsay likely demanded a change after the debacle at the end of the season, and the GM probably agreed. Wentz is probably right in the middle of the pack of starting QBs as of today if you do the team by team analysis. He is a slightly different version of Kirk Cousins.

I am guessing the Colts have a deal in the works for Garappolo, or maybe Cousins? They invested a lot in Wentz last year, so they wouldn't do this deal without a plan for moving forward, I don't think.

He is serviceable. He plays hard and will compete. Definitely prone to the head scratching mistake at a critical time. Given the few options available for an upgrade, not a bad move. Imagine being TB, NO, or Carolina at this juncture. No answers at the most important position.