CAPE

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

Probably being triggered by a stationary front oriented NW to SE through the region. eta- the front is now a warm front on the move eastward. Looking at current analysis it lies right along the bay in our region.

Current take from Mount Holly on potential for severe with Fred- One other item to watch: with our region being in a right-of-track position late Wednesday and Wednesday night, we may have to monitor for the risk of rotating cells and an isolated tornado threat. The SPC SWODY2 has added a Marginal Risk of severe weather for the region. Due to weak dynamic forcing, including the lack of any nearby synoptic frontal systems, this potential looks lower than normal with a tropical system. It also looks like instability will be quite limited. Nonetheless, this will at least be something to keep an eye on.

Nothing heavy here, but have picked up 0.35" from a few decent showers rolling through.

0.18" from that brief little shower. Didn't really rain that hard. Tropical though. Very efficient.

Getting a decent tropical shower here now. I am happy to see the westward shift in the heavy rain forecast for this week. Looks like the mountains will take the brunt, with a general 1-2" for the Piedmont and maybe even less for the coastal plain. I have a project scheduled for late week, and wet and rainy might delay it.

18z 3km NAM looks problematic for late tonight into tomorrow for areas just SW of DC that got hit hard last night with heavy rain. Some 2"+ amounts

It is uncanny.

WPC qpf forecast for the next 7 days. Could be even more than that, esp for areas west of DC. I will hope for even less than depicted for my yard, as I have excavation work scheduled for late week.

Yeah it looks like 3 periods where heavy rain is possible through next Saturday, the first being later tonight into tomorrow. The first threat looks like it is focused on DC and just west/sw.

Yeah its a tad risky getting a cool season tall fescue blend going that early. It's still a bit early now, but I have found around the middle part of August is less of a problem in general. Almost 2 months past the solstice, but the hot and humid weather can still be a problem. I do it in stages and I need to get going early, as I am in the woods and want all the new grass to get well established before the leaves start coming down. With the lower sun angle half my yard is much more shaded now too, so I start with that side first.

At least your weather during the winter months there still resembles winter.

I was just looking at the monthly rainfall analysis. Your area is in a precip min hole compared to the general area. Looks like a max of an inch for the month from NE MD into N DE.

It has been much more localized. Nothing like the widespread above normal rains for the coastal plain like say last year. Just under 3" for the month here, but there are places just to my south and east that have twice that in the last 5 days.

Seedlings were noticeable when I looked after work on Friday. So 5 days or so. Happens pretty quick with the warm soil as long as you keep it wet. I am using the Black Beauty Ultra.

Multiple roost rings visible on Dover radar again this morning. Could see at least 5.

Started working on lawn repair last weekend. More of the lawn managed to survive the heart of summer than usual, so it will be more of an overseeding than a total redo. Still a lot of relatively small areas that went completely to thatch, so that's what I am picking away at now. Raked out, seeded and fertilized the first area last Sunday. With the warm soil and several bouts of rain this past week, the seedlings were up on Friday.

We can get those big ass Asian tiger mosquitoes in late summer here, and if this week ends up as wet as advertised, might have to deal with them. Had em last summer and they were around into early October. It was insanely wet here from July into Sept though last year.

Picked up 0.6" here last night. The amount of moisture has been about perfect here, with some rain almost every day this last week, and nothing excessive. I have been on the edge or missed the good t-storms, but heard plenty of thunder though. Overall the rainfall here this summer has been about normal. I have not been bitten by a mosquito even once. Few and far between. Those effing flies though.

The general pattern this week into next weekend looks conducive for multiple chances of heavy rain and possible flash flooding, with the mid week period being influenced by the remnants of Fred. Just looked at the hi-res rainfall totals and several locales along and south of a line from DC to Dover have seen 4-6" over the past 72 hours.

Here is the culprit. A decent wave developed along the front. Mount Holly did mention this possibility in their evening AFD.

Man radar looking impressive! We are likely going to have a dry frontal passage around here. The good instability is well SE.

85/73 Still pretty gross out but not as hot as yesterday. Picked up 0.35" of rain yesterday, but expect the best convection will once again fire more to my south and east today. Heard thunder all night into the early morning from storms moving south of here. 5 or so miles SE there were 2" plus amounts, with up to 4" over the last 24 hours in central and southern DE.

There were 7 simultaneous roost rings visible on Dover radar this morning.