CAPE

The middle of next week looks a bit stormy. April showers.. Beyond that it looks like some chilly weather for a few days. Love the 50s and 60s this time of year.

Had several brief downpours overnight and this morning with a few rumbles of thunder. Rain gauge seems to be blocked up so no idea how much fell, but I am guessing no more than a quarter of an inch.

Looks like there may be some scattered gusty showers with possible graupel this afternoon as the main upper level energy passes overhead.

Severe is cool to track I guess, but other than heavy rain and T&L, I don't want it imy. Had a severe storm a couple summers ago that blew a tree down, but luckily it was well out in front of the house and only partially blocked the driveway. It was good firewood the last 2 winters.

Latest take from Mount Holly- As the entire upper-level trough gets closer later Thursday afternoon and evening, substantial flow through the atmosphere is expected to be over our area. This flow is nearly unidirectional (south to southwest) and will result in substantial shear. An examination of some model forecast sounding points from around the region shows impressive flow, however the instability profile is thin and short. These profiles tend to represent low-topped convective events. Given the shear that is forecast though, convection embedded within it will have the potential to transport the strong winds from aloft (40-60 knots at 925 mb) down to the surface. This will particularly be the case with line segments that take some some bowing/forward surging. Given the magnitude of the low-level shear (0-1 km) of around 30 knots, there is a non-zero tornado threat. Convection may start as discrete, especially to our west, but should evolve into a line or line segments with an eastward extent. Damaging straight-line wind is the main threat, however a tornado cannot be ruled out especially with any mesovortices that develop within a linear convective line. Some guidance shows that there is some potential for organized convective development near early evening in southern New Jersey to Delmarva, and the Slight Risk area (level 2 out of 5) has been expanded eastward and now covers nearly our entire area.

That does happen, but also the trough is exiting stage right and the warmer air is right on the heels coming in from the west, so the cold is hanging on over here a tad longer. Wind completely died down here overnight with clear skies, so perfect for temps to drop and plenty of frost to form.

low of 25 3 straight mornings of 25 or lower. Looking forward to the warmup today.

The coldest is occurring now and that's exiting tomorrow. After that it looks like 50s-60s (probably 70 or so on Thurs) through at least the middle of next week. Avg high temps are on the move upwards so any forecast 'cold' anomalies going forward aren't that cold, but certainly could still see some pretty chilly nights here and there the next couple weeks. Lets hold off the 70s/80s and humid at least another month.

Looks like pretty typical temps upcoming for this time of year.

23

Yep, we slight risk for Thursday. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

31 currently and the wind is no joke. Low of 25 this morning, and likely lower tomorrow morning. Have my hydrangeas covered but not sure it will help.

38. About to crank up the wood stove with the cold night ahead. Thought I was done with it until next Fall.

From Mount Holly AFD- For Thursday...As a robust upper-level trough/closed low arrives from the west, deep surface low pressure is forecast to track well to our northwest and north. Deep southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front will continue to support strong warm air advection, and this will help to propel a surface warm front across and north of our region. Given a chilly and very dry air mass initially in place in advance of this system, any precipitation may slow the northward progression of the warm front at least some. This will be key in how warm the region gets during Thursday before the cold front arrives. It does appear that most if not all of our region gets into the warm sector by later Thursday afternoon. A 120-knot 250 mb jet is forecast to be overhead by later in the day. In addition, 850 mb flow increases to near 50 knots. The GFS BUFKIT forecast soundings show strong and deep unidirectional flow and therefore strong shear in place. These soundings also show a thin instability (CAPE) profile and also have the look for low- topped convective potential. Given the strong forcing arriving from the west with an incoming cold front later in the afternoon, a low- topped squall line may develop and race across much of our area later in the afternoon and evening. Given the wind profiles, locally strong to damaging winds may occur especially with associated line segments that may take on some bowing/surging. The severe weather risk will depend on the timing and also the amount of instability, however as of now plenty of shear is forecast along with strong forcing.

Snowflakes flying here now with a temp of 41. Blustery day.

Shocking development.

Very cool. Driving I could see the virga and there were lots of convective showers around, but not a drop here. A really nice early Spring day and perfect to get outside stuff done with no sweat and no bugs.

47 here with a light sprinkle passing through. Disco from Mount Holly for this afternoon- Ahead of the reinforcing cold front passage later on today, scattered showers are expected to develop across the area. The environment will be a bit moisture starved to support any appreciable or particularly widespread convection with PWats only around 0.3-0.4 inches. Nevertheless, guidance remains consistent in showing light scattered QPF, including the CAMs. The HRRR remains the most aggressive CAM with this activity. The shortwave and upper divergence will undoubtedly provide plenty of support for scattered convection, and the cold mid-levels arriving ahead of the surface front will provide very steep lapse rates (7-8C/km) resulting in a couple hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. However, the convection will be battling dry air (owing to lack of any return flow and broad scale downsloping in the westerly surface flow) and I suspect this will hamper the convection`s ability to get very organized or widespread. Given low level lapse rates exceeding 9C/km and cold air aloft (700 mb temps around -15C), any convection that materializes will be capable of producing small hail/graupel, isolated lightning/thunder, and wind gusts perhaps into the 30-40 mph range. Thus, I have maintained a mention of this for the entire forecast area with this update.

Pretty. As it should be out there this time of year.

I read that the buds need to be protected from frost/freeze or it may not bloom, but some varieties are more hardy than others. I will cover mine just to be safe. "More serious frost damage turns the leaves and emerging buds dark brown to black and wilted. Hydrangeas that haven't put on any new growth or developed flower buds are likely to be fine, even after a frost or freeze." https://homeguides.sfgate.com/hydrangea-pruning-hard-frost-72951.html

Goes without saying. Model simulations so good.

Hydrangeas have buds, so with a night or 2 in the mid to upper 20s I will have to cover them.

^Head to the western highlands. About the only place in the region where snow chances are reasonable the next couple weeks.

Looks brief, but the following cool down doesn't look as cold as the upcoming one.

Nice rebound.