CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Stop panicking lol. This area has always sucked for snow, by any objective measure. There are a few "good" winters mixed in here and there, with generally many more bad. We don't do average very often, and that is gradually shifting lower. We have talked about median being a better expectation, so just roll with that going in. And yes, it might suck even more going forward with climate change. Reality.
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Old news Chuck.
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A bit different when there is a trough with a legit front moving through. Storms should be able to sustain even after max heating. Unfortunately for those who were hoping for more widespread significant rain, this is going to be moving through quickly, so its one shot and done. The Ridgely to Goldsboro dead zone watch is in effect though.
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Could still get a splitter lol. Whether I get 2" or a tenth, it wont make much difference in the ultimate outcome for the grass, but a good storm with some booming T&L would be fun. Seems like its been forever. The remnants of Elsa late last week was a good soaker, but totally boring otherwise.
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There will be definite winners and losers today, but across guidance there is no real agreement on exact location. Should be fun lol.
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Might get a local chase in later and get a shot of a shelf. If I'm lucky, might only have to walk down to the end of the driveway.
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HI is 106. Good day to sit inside in the AC drinking a stout.
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Brutal.
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Total for July here is 2.7" so far. Somehow the date setting on my station got messed up.
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Just looked at my rain gauge and almost 6.5" for the month. Not sure how that happened. I thought it was closer to 3. I will have to check some local stations.
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93/74 This may be the grossest day of the summer here.
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Must have been a severely -AO.
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Sunday into Monday is questionable- depending on the exact location of the front there could be some rain esp along the coast. Beyond that, there will be a trough in place with embedded shortwaves aloft moving through, so there will be some chances for scattered showers/storms from time to time, probably afternoon/evening stuff for the most part. No indication of any washouts on current guidance.
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Icon, NAM, and CMC still have a second round Sunday into Monday. The slower guidance have the WA ridge hanging on a bit longer. Might be more realistic given the time of year.
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WPC seems to favor the slower progression, as days 2,3,4 all show precip, gradually shifting east through the area.
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Maybe if you buy the GFS. It more aggressively brings the trough east, and it has the front to our south by later Sunday. The rain would be from late Sat into Sunday morning verbatim, and the next perturbation would result in rain to our south. Most other guidance hold the trough back to the west longer with a slower progression of the front, so there would be at least 2 rounds of possible rain for our region.
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LR GEFS and EPS continue to advertise a general trough over the eastern US, with h5 ridge in the western/central US. Atlantic ridge is relatively weak and well east. That would keep the big heat/humidity combo at bay, maybe through the end of the month.
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Icon is slow too and quite wet. Go with the Germans and the Brits.
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Two bouts of thunder here and about 7 drops of rain with decaying storms. The CAMs were right on, as any convection that developed died off after loss of heating. Going to have to wait until later Saturday east of I-95 for rain chances, when better forcing arrives as the trough moves east.
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Looking ahead to next week, the eastern ridge is replaced with a trough, with upper ridging building out west. This pattern should be somewhat cooler(normal temps) with better chances for t-storms as disturbances move through in the upper flow in conjunction with afternoon heating.
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The eastern ridge/Bermuda high begins to break down after today, so there should be increasing chances for showers/storms this weekend into early next week as the OV trough and associated front move east. It should be pretty slow moving, so for the drought worriers, decent chance of some beneficial rain.
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Anxiety can be a bitch. Get a clonazepam script from your doc. It's the shit for making you feel relaxed and ready to roll with anything, whatever the source of anxiety is.
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Mind Haze DIPA from Firestone Walker for HH. Rather good.
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Maybe the heat will break early this year and we get a nice November.
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Yes some of us here were cherishing those perfect weather days, knowing what was ahead for the next 5 months.
