CAPE

After another endless summer week upcoming, it still looks like we get a significant front and a cooler airmass for next Sunday and into the following week. GFS tends to be on the cooler end in the long range so temps might be closer to 70. Dew points at this time are in the mid to upper 30s- that's the big difference compared to this garbage air mass we have had seemingly forever.

0.16" of rain here today. Also the monthly total.

Absolutely. I will roll the dice with a favorable AO/NAO anytime. The basic problem in December is climo, so HL blocking may simply produce chilly and wet when storms come along, esp for the lowlands.

Rough day, but least he made the last one. Bengals look good, but I must root against them.

They really should have scored a couple more TDs the way they moved the ball with big plays.

Green Bay needs a kicker.

Pretty decent shower moving through here all of a sudden. Heaviest rain I have seen in over 2 weeks, which isn't saying much.

CFS weeklies start to build heights in the NAO domain around mid November. As advertised December has a -AO/NAO, -EPO, and neutral PNA. Things look to shift sometime in early Jan, and go to complete crap into February. Long way off, but at least seeing some signs that December could have a decent h5 look. I think that aligns with the thoughts of some of the folks who dabble in predicting the character of the upcoming winter.

Looks like the stagnant summer-like pattern breaks down next weekend with a trough moving east as a ridge builds out west. If the GFS is correct next Sunday will be the start of a more Fall like period. The frontal passage produces maybe a few sprinkles in our area verbatim, with the energy passing further north and west. Might be the middle of the following week for the next chance of significant rain.

Latest CFS runs have a pretty decent look for December, then it all goes to shit like the rest of the seasonals, with a monstrous Pac ridge and ++AO/NAO.

Looking forward to another week of 75-80 degree temps. Is this still Summer II or are we into Summer III yet? I will get another round of grass seed germinated and the only leaves coming down are dry crispy ones typical of late summer. Oak trees are dropping a ton of acorns this year.

Lol Weather Will wont be happy you posted this. And that looks like a smoothed over climo average snowfall map, maybe with slight adjustments for ENSO state. Just what one would expect from a seasonal model.

Canaan will still get 100". I will roll with whatever, and do a chase or 2 if necessary. I have plenty of work to do outside so I can make do with a mild/dry winter just fine. Much nicer to be outside than any summer month around here (May through October).

That one underperformed here, but still managed 5 inches or so. Much more just to my east. I should have chased that one to the beach too, along with Jan 17 and 18. Big snowstorms on the immediate MA coast with a whiff inland seem to be a thing during a Nina.

We just can't know if it will get cold enough to snow. It barely did last year for the lowlands, and if not for the persistent -AO/NAO it may have ended up much like the winter before. Therefore, 'Precip hole' setting up.

Snippet from Mount Holly on the continuing mild pattern- Little change to the overall thinking in the long term as a high amplitude pattern of Western US troughing and Eastern US ridging develops. Those looking for a return to cool and crisp autumn conditions will have to continue waiting, as this is a surefire warm pattern for our area. One recent change is that it does look like the onshore flow regime from over the weekend could continue well into Monday, which would lead to another day with a lot of cloud cover. Beyond then, while some minor day-to-day variation is likely, the overriding theme will be mainly dry conditions and temperatures running solidly above seasonal averages as ridging dominates the pattern. In fact, for the entire forecast period, there are no locations in the entire CWA forecast to drop below 50 degrees through the end of next week, not even the Poconos. A rather unusual stretch of temperatures as we approach mid-October. Another 7 days of warm and then maybe a change next weekend as a front approaches. If the GFS has the right idea, the week after next would feel like actual Fall, with normal/slightly below normal temps.

From Mount Holly this morning.. Model guidance has trended towards what the GFS has been advertising with this system, with tonight`s EC run essentially moving all the way in line with what has been the GFS solution. This means the center of the surface low and its associated heavy precipitation should stay pretty well south of us. This will spare us from a heavy rain event and any hydro or wind concerns. However, we will still have a vertically deep layer of onshore flow, and there will also be a long fetch of easterly flow over the waters which will help push a lot of moisture from over the ocean onshore. This will result in an extended period of mostly cloudy to overcast conditions. With the coastal low staying further south, there will not be much forcing to "wring out" the moisture, preventing much in the way of steady rain. Instead, scattered showers and drizzle will probably be more favored, especially on Saturday. By Saturday night and Sunday, some steadier but still mainly light rain will become more likely, especially in southern and eastern portions of the area, as the coastal low moves a little closer. Overall, grey and gloomy will probably be the best way to describe most of the weekend. It seems the GFS has been "winning" a lot lately.

Add it to the list of seasonal guidance depicting boilerplate Nina pattern during a Nina winter.

Still quite a bit of disparity between the models on the late Sat into Sun period. GFS has not waivered on the idea of 'not much to see here'. ICON and CMC, and to some degree the Euro, have trended its way. My hunch is there will be some showers and drizzle here and there with any significant rain staying pretty far south and east towards the lower Delmarva and eastern VA. Mount Holly's latest take- Complex and challenging forecast evolution during this period as the blocking pattern continues to evolve. The main players will be 1) a strong high building south over the Canadian Maritimes pushing an backdoor cold front through the region Friday night, 2) a slowly developing area of low pressure off the SE US coast, and 3) an upper level trough ejecting out of the western CONUS which will act to de-amplify and lift northward the upper level low currently over the midwest. At least some of the energy from this upper level low may split off and end up feeding into the low off the SE coast. Ultimately, how these features all interact will determine how this coastal low develops through the weekend and unfortunately that is still not certain. That said, latest runs of the ECMWF and GEM Regional have backed off a bit compared to the 0z runs of these models. However these models still bring the system farther north bringing more in the way of rain into the area for Sunday compared to the NAM and GFS.

Drinking a Master of Oranges DIPA from Aslin. Pretty good stuff.

GFS/GEFS suggesting some relaxation in the persistent -PNA in the LR. Some hope for the latter part of the month to feel more Fall-like. There sure has been a tendency towards blocking ridges recently. Maybe that persists and shifts further north over the next couple months.

Negative AO/weak PV historically brings colder air. NA blocking promotes a more favorable storm track for the MA and puts the Highs and Lows to our north in the right places. Last winter our cold air source was largely cut off by the Pac jet flooding Canada with warmth, and there wasn't a significant/sustained -EPO to promote cross polar flow and overcome the anomalous warmth there.

68 and been cloudy all day here. I'll take it. Sunday looks semi interesting with a high to the northeast and a low off the SE coast. Looks like some stiff east winds and coolish esp further east. Models disagree on rain chances, with Euro and CMC favoring some light to moderate rain for eastern third of the area while the GFS not much to see other than clouds and drizzle. ICON is sort of in between.

Theo's and Ava's are both very good. Maybe not the ideal family place but RAR Brewing is excellent and has good food too.

Looks great for getting outdoor projects done with no bugs and nice temps. We are rarely wetter than normal in a Nina. Looking forward to it.