CAPE

Exactly a half inch here. As crappy as the radar looked for my yard when I went to bed, lucky to get that much.

Only a tenth of an inch for the month here, and looks like tonight is going to be pretty scattered over this way with the showers, so will need some luck. In that betwixt and between groove here lately.

Nothing here last night, and I tend to agree about tonight. With that low track we will be on the 'unstable' side with some juice, but bad timing for surface based instability. Looks more hit or miss in our area with the heavier showers/storms, while the better dynamics/forcing for more widespread rain pass further north closer to the low track.

Slight risk of excessive rain for parts of the region. I get their reasoning on the location, but given the advertised track of the shortwave/developing low, the more widespread moderate to heavy rain looks to be north. Places within in the highlighted slight risk area would appear to also have a higher chance of seeing little to no rain with convection being more scattered.

Scored a hundredth here! Getting pretty dry here all of a sudden. Despite watering, the grass is doing its usual thing. Peak lawn is always right at the end of May.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD this morning- Things get potentially more interesting for Wednesday night. A new area of low pressure looks to take shape over the midwestern states along the lingering frontal boundary. This will then deepen as it moves northeast towards eastern PA through Wednesday night. There are still model differences regarding the strength and track of this system but the general trend appears to be towards a stronger system . Both the GEM Reg and especially the GFS depict a robust shortwave driving this system as it eventually takes on a neutral to negative tilt by early Thursday. The system will be accompanied by widespread showers and storms by late Wednesday evening through the overnight and this could actually come through in multiple rounds. And in fact we have concerns for both the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall with an associated flood/flash flood risk. This is because strengthening low moving right near the area could result in deep layer shear increasing to 40 to 50 knots. In addition both the GFS and GEM depict a strong LLJ at 850 mb advecting in PWATs of around 2 inches with this LLJ also helping to aid in increased low level shear. It is still too early to be confident in exactly how this will evolve as, along with the uncertainty regarding the strength of the system, a potentially limiting factor will be the timing during the overnight during the diurnal min of instability. Even so though, the strong low level warm and moist advection could still result in at least several hundred j/kg of CAPE which may be enough given the strong dynamics and shear.

50 here this morning. A bit Fall-like.

71 with a dp of 48 and a nice breeze out of the east. Perfect out there.

Yep, at this range there is plenty of uncertainty with exact location of the front, timing of disturbances etc.

58 this morning. Very nice out.

Should be some active periods going forward with this general pattern. Disturbances in the flow and fronts nearby combined with surface heating will be triggers.

Need to watch this shortwave digging S and E under that closed upper low over eastern Canada Wed into Thursday. For now, as depicted it's probably a bit too far north for our area.

No signs of big/prolonged heat over the next 10 days or so. This h5 pattern should generally keep temps close to normal. Should also see some shower/storm chances with disturbances and associated fronts moving through.

A near perfect weekend upcoming with plenty of sun, high temps around 80 and dewpoints in the 40s-low 50s.

0.08" total.

Watched an ep last night with a (vintage) 2020 120.

I have the sprinkler going now lol as mother nature provides some light sprinkles and drizzle to supplement . Soil already pretty dry here with the trees robbing everything.

0.02" so far.

Good stuff. Not as good as the original or the BBA version imo, but good. The 2022 120 min IPA has a different look to the artwork on the bottle, so easy to tell. Also has the abv listed for the first time ever (16.6%).

Getting a moderate sprinkle now at least, while Easton and places just south are on round 3 of heavy rain. Lots of thunder in the distance. There are going to be some 2" amounts easily down that way.

Sampling the fourth (out of four) of the "new" 2022 version of DFH 120 min IPA. Had a 2020 vintage yesterday and man I still love the old recipe, but can't hate the new one. More of a triple IPA than a dank barley wine and will probably be loved more by 'hopheads'.

I will say most of the CAMs had this depiction. Pretty much all of them had the action just south of my yard. Maybe I can catch some pity rain later with some of the stuff upstream, but that looks to be headed mostly south as well. Might be sprinkler time by tomorrow.

Exactly. I mow the grass to 4". It is tall fescue after all, plus it is a cool season variety. Even so it is a losing battle through the summer with all the trees plus soil that is very well drained.

My latest project is replacing bad deck boards. Did some last fall, and noticed a few more are rotted in sections. Deck has a cool multicolored look now lol. I will probably lightly scrub the whole thing with some Oxiclean and hot water at some point and put a transparent stain on it, which will look good for a year or 2 as always. OxiClean is the shit btw. Rinses off easy leaving no residue, cost effective and works better than deck wash products.