CAPE

looks ready for the old bay and vinegar.

Ensembles have been advertising this pattern for awhile now, and its still looking good. Hard to beat an h5 longwave look like this for the middle part of June.

From Mount Holly AFD- Several hires CAM`s are indicating that the storms will evolve in sort of three waves. The first, has basically already occurred with storms that developed across DelMarVA. These storms began to interact with each over and one ended up having its outflow run into a developing updraft producing several funnel clouds over Delaware this afternoon. The outflow boundaries from these storms will start to propagate north across SEPA and central Jersey through the rest of the afternoon as the forcing remains weak over the region. Heading into this evening the cold front should eventually start to slide south out of NY and will become the trigger for the third round of convection this evening and overnight. The good news is that precipitable water values should decrease considerably tonight behind the cold front. Thus, expect the risk for heavy rain to decrease by late this evening.

Decided to pop open the 2008 vintage WWS. It's more complex, with more dark fruit notes. Alcohol is barely noticeable. Even with a hard pour, hardly any head though. Almost flat. Not sure if that is typical of a 12 yo beer lol. It is tasty, but I like a bit of carbonation.

Managed to catch a piece of the back edge of all that convection moving southeast through DE. Been frustrating here the last few days missing everything. Rained for less than 15 mins and picked up 0.34" . At least I am on the board.

I had a few drops at some point overnight. Registered nothing in the rain gauge. Probably a slightly better chance over here today, but again not really much of any forcing to initiate lift, so most likely storms will pop due to terrain influences, and along local boundaries. Maybe right along the bay and the immediate coast if a sea breeze develops.

I am letting my turf type tall fescue grow... tall. It always starts to struggle around now with the heat and the high sun and generally dry soil, and deteriorates from there. Can't do much about the trees robbing moisture/nutrients from below, but letting it grow higher cant hurt. I will cut it to 4" when I mow.

Guidance is generally backing off on the more widespread heavy rain potential for tomorrow into the weekend. Trend is for the front to push through faster and slow/stall further south, with HP nosing down from the NE. Would make for a really nice weekend, but for areas that miss the scattered pulsed convection in the weakly forced/weak flow regime, rain chances might come down to the frontal passage itself. Looks like any wave(s) that develop along the stalled boundary will mostly impact areas to the south.

There will be some heavy rainers pop up over the next day or so with the high pwats and decent cape, but with weak flow/shear they will probably pulse and die. There will likely be few haves and many have nots.

Need some of this. Getting into fringe drought territory again.

^wrong thread

HH bringing some relief from our mini heat wave.. and drought.

Easton jack.

92/70 Sultry.

Euro looks pretty wet across the region from mid week into the weekend, with multiple bouts of convection, frontal passage, then perhaps a low forming on the stalled front to the south heading into the weekend. Some 2-3"+ totals.

Congrats! So which one of you is going to make our pathetic MA snowfall map for last winter?

88 was the high here, and not uncomfortable being outside with the breeze and reasonable dews. Tomorrow will surely be more steamy.

80/67. Doesn't feel bad out there now with a nice breeze.

If the GFS is correct a series of upper level vorticity impulses will begin to impinge on the ridge beginning Tuesday, and with chances of convection and more clouds around, it will be plenty humid but not as hot. It tries to push a front through midweek, so Sunday and Monday would be the hottest days w/temps into the 90s most places, then dropping back mostly into the 80s and possibly upper 70s depending on the amount of clouds and timing of any convection. A stronger disturbance is advertised to move through by the end of the week by both the GFS and CMC, which could bring a more significant rain and much cooler temps by next weekend.

DCA 102 IAD 100 BWI 103 RIC 103

And I thought I was the only one here who knew/cared about all this esoteric electrical/electronic stuff.

My doc said to stay out of the heat/ sun for a few days with the rash. Took my first dose of prednisone(60mg) and drinking a 90 min IPA. Feeling much better already.

It gets hostile here for grass as we approach the solstice, regardless of how much rain falls. Last Spring/Summer was a perfect example. Ton of rain for consecutive months and still dead in the end. Now I did (as always) reseed in the Fall and used a supposed summer blend that is more heat tolerant, plus I have fertilized per the recommendations. I shall see shortly if it makes a difference.

Pretty cool shot of the clouds I took from Target in Easton from that warned storm an hour or so ago to the south.