CAPE

ICON fwiw. Not as good for our region and better just NE. The shortwave was broader/much less sharp this run, and beyond that I have no other insights because IDGAF and the ICON SUCKS.

I think he is always in that mode lol. I lived up that way for 12 years (at 900 ft) and never felt like I was in some sort of magical place for snow. I never kicked a 1-3 incher out of bed.

Latest NBM snow map for the hell of it. Waiting for HH GFS to get rolling while enjoying a HH Coffee Stout.

Mount Holly AFD.. we just cant know yet. For Saturday and Sunday...Low pressure tracks well to our north, however a strong cold front is forecast to cross our area by late in the day Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front will maximize the low-level warm air advection and despite cloud cover, afternoon temperatures are anticipated to get well into the 50s across the coastal plain where even some low 60s will be possible. To the north and west of here, temperatures may be held down some due to more cloud cover and a possible earlier arrival of the cold front. There may not be much in the way of precipitation with the frontal passage as the main initial forcing for ascent lifts well to our north and the upper-level trough axis is still well to our west. Shortwave energy along with a favorable mid to upper level jet though may produce a ribbon of better lift late Saturday night especially across the coastal plain. It will turn much colder and drier Saturday night in the wake of the cold front along with a northwesterly breeze. As we go through Sunday, our sensible weather will be determined from what develops offshore of the Carolinas. Temperature-wise it will be cold. Much of the guidance is in agreement that low pressure develops along Saturday`s frontal zone that is located offshore. This occurs as the large scale upper-level trough shifts closer to the East Coast. However the low pressure placement, track and intensity will depend on how far south and east the colder air presses and also if any interaction (phasing) starts to occur between the northern and southern stream energy. Some guidance now showing a sharper upper-level trough which results in a bit more phasing and therefore a closer to the coast placement of the surface low. The ensemble guidance offers variability and as a result there remains considerable uncertainty with the details. Despite the surface low tracking offshore, the positioning of an upper-level jet looks favorable resulting in a zone of enhanced forcing for ascent for a time Sunday, especially across our coastal plain, which could result in a period of snow. Given the uncertainty and accounting for some guidance shifting closer to the coast (the National Blend of Models, NBM, responding to this), increased the PoPs a little however we are still no higher than the chance range.

There is very little variation between the members. Almost all of them resemble the op.

Wider view of the clown map

Might happen. This is clearly still evolving. GFS actually got pretty close. Most of the additional love from the coastal on the 6z run was right along the coast.

I am playing with house money over here. 1-3" on SB weekend would be awesome.

Taking a peak at the snowfall mean as we get closer is fine, but still a lot to be resolved. Posting probability maps with silly commentary provides no value.

That was quite the run of posting some of the most useless WB maps. Y'all are dangerous.

A tad better than 0z

It does have that elongated, double low look, with the 700/850 low further west, kind of similar to last storm. Coastal DE and NJ are getting hit pretty good here.

The coastal still develops a tad late and offshore on the GFS, but it is emphasizing impressive forcing right along the cold front prior to the arrival of the trough. Have to see how that trends, as a good amount of snow seems to be associated with that.

6z GFS kinda went boom

0z EPS improved a bit.

Pretty decent signal at range for something other than an offshore scraper. Maybe something for inlanders to finally get more excited about.

From Mount Holly AFD this afternoon- For Sunday and Monday...Our sensible weather during this time frame, especially Sunday, will be determined from what develops offshore of the Carolinas, however temperature-wise it looks much colder. Much of the guidance is in agreement that low pressure develops along Saturday`s frontal zone that is located offshore. This occurs as the large scale upper-level trough shifts closer to the East Coast. However, the low pressure placement, track and intensity will depend on how far south and east the colder air presses and also if any interaction (phasing) starts to occur from northern stream energy and energy tracking along and eventually out of the Gulf Coast states. Much of the guidance keeps the features more separate and therefore the surface low is well offshore and more progressive. Some ensemble member guidance however does show a closer to the coast track of the surface low, so this at least bears some watching. Despite the surface low tracking well offshore, an upper- level jet feature may result in a zone of forcing for ascent for a time Sunday, especially across our coastal plain. For now given the uncertainty, we kept some low PoPs (20-30 percent) in place. Whatever does develop should be moving away by Monday as the main upper-level trough axis swings across our region and surface high pressure starts to arrive from the west.

Been busy so catching up on HH run. For the snow map weenies the ens mean looks serviceable I suppose.(except for WinterWxLuvr)

Almost perfect. You needed to work Miller B in there somewhere.

The primary problem last winter was no available actual cold air. That can happen in a NINO or Neutral too. Overall Ninas have worked out well for my yard recently- better than Neutrals/Ninos of the past several years. So it also depends on specific location in any given winter. The lack of cold last winter hurt us both, but it was just good enough for places a bit further N and W. You tend to generalize a bit too much.

Flow is fast and progressive. If we had blocking similar to last winter with the Pacific state we have had for the past month, I bet no one here would ever mention the ENSO state.