CAPE

I quickly scanned through the members focusing on the 14-15th window- there are 3-4 members(out of 50) on the 0z EPS that have low pressure to our SE and tucked close to the coast- healthy storms that produce some significant snow for our region. The majority are offshore or all NS. Overall theme is progressive/offshore/late.

Not much to note. Looking at the EPS, the Monday night deal looks like light rain/drizzle/maybe fr drizzle? along the coast. Beyond that enjoy a week of partly to mostly sunny with temps in the mid to upper 40s. Maybe we get colder next weekend.

Be careful. They play an important role in NWP. At this juncture they are indicating that you may be disappointed if you expect the depiction on the latest op runs to be the correct outcome.

I'll use the 18z GFS vs 18z GEFS to illustrate- Phase underway here.. Not happening on the ens mean..

The advertised pattern is highly chaotic with energy riding over an amplifying western US ridge and interacting with additional energy associated with the TPV, then there is also energy undercutting the western ridge and taking the southern route. The op runs are (frequently) phasing energy dropping down from the NS with existing energy further south, while the ensemble runs largely have less interaction or suggest a much later phase. The difference in resolution probably plays a big part in the disparate projected outcomes, especially at this range. In simple terms, we just cant know yet.

12z GFS/GEFS is further east than 6z. Probably just some light rain/snow showers as it stands now.

That northern stream energy dropping down has been digging further west on recent runs, helping to turn the flow a bit more NE out in front. The coastal low develops out in front of the elongated ribbon of vorticity, underneath a developing strong upper jet. The ultimate phase is going to happen too late, but trends suggest a glancing blow is possible. Light precip probably won't get it done. Need some rates to overcome the marginal low level temps.

28 this morning. Very light coating of snow/sleet on the deck

Nothing else to track in the near term. Pretty low probability this becomes anything significant, but still some uncertainty as the ens means have generally been further west of recent op runs. Best case scenario is probably a coating to an inch in places if precip can fall for a few hours with some intensity, and overcome the warmish low levels. It would occur mostly overnight, which gives it a better chance.

18z EPS a tad better than 12z, and surface is a bit colder than the op.

Might go that way with a bit more amplification. As it stands 925 mb down to the surface is just a tad too warm. Decent rates and dynamic cooling could possibly overcome that.

Dec we were chasing cold air. Snowstorms wasnt even a thought Until I spotted the light at the end of the crapola pattern tunnel.

Closer but the air mass is pretty shit.

Surface panels lagging on WB

Lets see what it do

18z Euro looking better at h5 for the Tuesday deal.

Remember December?

33 here. I think the precip just ended lol.

Was wondering where you were. Everyone else seems to have lost interest lol. Admittedly there are issues, but it's not that far out of the realm of possibility.

HH GEFS closer..

Canadian mean- GFS/GEFS might be third string now with its recent performances.

12z EPS suggests its not completely dead.

2 losses in a row.