CAPE

Dude..

We do wind well around here. Mount Holly snippet- The other big story to note will be the winds. This will actually be quite remarkable given the winds we just had and that we went light and variable overnight last night - another quick turnaround. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the Arctic cold front will quickly mix down to the surface after sunrise. With the dry air noted earlier, steep low-level lapse rates, actually not too far off the dry adiabatic lapse rate in fact, will allow for deep vertical mixing, carrying down winds from well above 1500 feet from 850 to the 700 mb level. With a strong ll-jet moving beneath this shortwave, we will see strong winds glide right down to the surface. Ended up dividing the Wind Advisory into two segments, starting the western portion over the Poconos and Lehigh Valley at 10 am, and the rest of the area at 1 pm, both of these advisories lasting through 10 pm. Wind gusts up to 45 to 50 mph will be possible across the entire forecast area, likely highest associated with and behind any showers and snow squalls that form.

lol 10% chance of flurries here this afternoon. Rare to see that in a forecast- usually not mentioned unless it's at least 20.

Ji wants instant gratification, and it only comes from looking at op runs, even 10 days out. Go blue or go home lol.

Nice!

Nice wintry feeling morning with some frost. Low of 22. Better than the 62 of yesterday morning.

I think so, but staying focused on the next 2 weeks, we have the late week deal that you might be more interested in than me, the possible "sneaky" little wave for next Sunday, and then the window around March 2nd looks to hold some potential for a coastal. Seeing hints on both the GEFS and EPS. H5 certainly has that look-

I mentioned yesterday on the 12z Euro run that there was some trailing energy being left behind from the late week storm. Seeing that on the GFS now too. Next Sunday- Monday is a sneaky period to watch for something. As for the first week in March, check out the 6z GFS. It has a parade of storms but as depicted the boundary is too far north.

"simple equation for a sine wave" But go ahead and be pedantic. No help needed when it comes to technical subjects. Thanks for the offer though.

It has generally been more erratic than typical. Maybe it is about to get back on a hot streak.

I would love for the GFS idea to be more correct, but well, I just don't trust it after its recent performances. Ask Psu how much snow he had in his yard last weekend and then ask me lol. The GFS was inverted right up until game time.. and then we have the 2 events prior to that to consider. It is defo on a 'negative' heater. Tossing out all the guidance though, the other thing I don't like is the pattern leading in fundamentally isn't a good match for frozen in this area. Not impossible, but..

Not much to say about HH GFS. It is still holding its ground for the most part. We will probably know in another 4-5 days whether or not it has a clue or if it is just doing GFS-like things that have largely been in error lately.

Simple equation for a sine wave. Applicable to almost everything in nature, from seasonal water table variations, to AC voltage and current, to Rossby wave behavior in the atmosphere. Math is fun!

y = A sin(B(x + C)) + D The amplitude and period of the ups and the downs vary depending on the amount of snow or lack there of for any particular model cycle.

12z Euro has a more substantial piece of trailing energy that gets left behind after the next Friday(rain) event. Not sure if anything will come of it this run.

I need Chuck to weigh in.

Especially considering most of that would 'fall' beyond day 15. Good thing is those maps are useless until there is a discrete threat on the radar in the short to medium range.

I have built up a tolerance due to constant exposure. I need purple now.

Still a week before we even have a chance lol. Waiting and watching..

Just looked over the 6z GEFS members for late next week- there are 6 (out of 30) that have some/mostly snow, and the rest look mixy/rainy or just rain.

Lets hope not. For now it is the only one on the radar to track though.

That squall line hit literally as I was pulling out of my driveway. Clouds looked impressive. It poured for about 3-4 miles but once I got a bit further south there was just scattered rain and nothing heavy.

We will have to see how long the TPV can stay displaced and locked into a 'good' spot. Without much(or any) downstream ridging in the NAO domain, the character of the EPO ridge upstream will largely determine that- meaning the amplitude, axis, and orientation. It is a bit tenuous without some help in the NA. Right now I don't see much to "worry" about on the ensembles, at least not through the first week of March.

March 1-7 is probably THE window. Not saying we wont have chances beyond that, but climo starts to make it more difficult pretty quickly going forward. Looking at the ensembles, still pretty scattershot, but March 2 and then the 5th-6th is where a discrete threat might start to emerge.

62 here lol. Windy with brief downpours, but only 0.21" so far.