CAPE

Don't forget the ICONIC SUCK and CMC. They are on the suppressed side but its there. And the CMC ens is closer than the op.

That type of interaction is generally want we want. A scoop not a squash, and it needs to happen far enough west. Always timing.

I think its too soon simply because this is all we have to track at this point so there is no reason to start another thread.

It is with the initial piece but then there is yet another hammer coming down lol. Very volatile with the amped up ridge and the TPV shedding off vortices. More fun and games(changes) to come.

Jiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We got a storm. Details are for later. SE VA PUMMELEDD!

Its better but might not quite get it done this run. effing WB..

I am on pokey WB but at hour 129 it looks better than 0z run

The southern vort is stronger and further west(good) and we want the NS to come in further west and play nice

Still some work to do, but the idea is there across guidance now. GEFS better.

The ICON SUCKS has it, but it's a southern VA/Lower eastern shore hit.

Back away from the op snow maps at range. Slooow, steady now. I know you can.

Deep winter look and feel end of Feb/Early March? Been awhile.

I always thought the late week deal was too soon. Once it goes by we have the cold coming in, and the Euro I think was the first I noticed depicting some trailing energy a day or so later. That was the key.

You need to show up earlier for these models runs- I am not a PbP guy, more of a color commentator. I promise I won't be a Romo and talk all over you though.

The changes were evident pretty early- More separation from the NS energy associated with the Thursday-Friday storm, so our shortwave was sharper/ wester, and better interaction with the next NS piece dropping in.

12z GFS- Our shortwave of interest is more distinct/stronger with higher h5 heights out in front. NS coming in. Lets see if we phase.

lol thanks. I do my best. I don't always have the time, but when I do and there is something trackable, I try to do a bit more analysis. Hopefully some folks get something out of it, and I don't make a fool of myself in the process.

12 km NAM at range- always a good laugh.

You sure the guidance has the ridge placement and amplitude correct 6+ days out? How about the timing and depth of the NS energy dropping southward? Uncertainty is the answer.

^Looks pretty similar to 0z overall. A bit more expansive with the precip at that point.

I usually find myself watching videos from NW Japan about this time every winter.

The primary 'problem' we are seeing on the latest op runs is the advertised amplitude(and progression) of the western ridge. The image below is from the Euro- the ridge folds over(breaks) and that peels off a TPV lobe that crashes down and obliterates that southern vorticity ribbon. At this range the amplitude/progression/axis of the ridge and the degree (and location) of NS energy that drops in are likely not representative of the actual outcome. We need the NS to constructively interact with the southern energy, which mostly involves timing. There is a reason we rely more on the ensembles at this range.

CMC ens reasonably close for 6+ days out GEFS continued improvement...

EPS looks pretty good to me.