CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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There it is on the GEFS. Man what a nice look.
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Fluid mechanics/dynamics is cool stuff. Fascinating. Look up Karman vortex street. Vortex shedding occurs on all scales with high enough flow around an obstruction. There is even a flowmeter based on the principle.
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Sure is. Guidance in general has been hinting for a couple days now.
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Search Atmospheric Angular Momentum and EAMT. Plenty of technical papers on the topic. Complex large scale physics. Esoteric stuff. General idea- The atmosphere is a fluid moving relative to the rotating earth. Big mountains (ie in east Asia)represent obstructions/disturbances to the flow, and act like a 'lever arm' in a sense, imparting a force relative to the earth's rotation, and can influence jet stream configuration.
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Yep. Many of our good events are hybrids. Miller B gets associated too much with Ninas and failure. We have many failure modes lol.
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Cold air in place ahead of a storm, with a favorable pattern, gives the MA lowlands the best opportunity for frozen. The late week deal has always looked convoluted and simply not enough cold around yet.
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It's possible. I am mostly just having a little fun with the labels. The advertised pattern would support a primary wave taking the southern route. There will certainly be pieces of energy in the NS with that look.
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Miller A for Xmas!
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The big 3 global means are all suggestive of one or more waves tracking from the the deep south up along the east coast between Dec 20-25, with cold air in place. Same general favorable h5 look- Go Canada!
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Marcus Williams also activated. Hopefully he plays tomorrow. Secondary significantly better with him in there.
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I think pretty much everyone here realizes this is a marginal cold setup, with relatively low chances for significant frozen.
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As I said the other day, all our hopes and dreams are mostly dependent on random interactions between waves. Man what a weird hobby lol.
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The flow is a bit more compressed(h5 vorticity is stretched out) due to the closer proximity of the quasi-50-50 low. These subtle differences in spacing/interaction can make significant differences in outcome.
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What happened to that cad signature the gfs modeled 24 hours ago? Primary low stronger and further north, and all that HP across the top is a tad weaker. The ultimate outcome is still TBD with this one.
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The coastal low on the 18z GFS takes a little more favorable track and deepens quicker. Rain changing to snow on the backside? Congrats NJ!
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He has trouble articulating his thoughts in a coherent manner sometimes. He has been around a long time in this subforum and many of us remember his valuable contributions.
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Chuck is pretty smart tbh. He doesn't troll on purpose.
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Probably a snowman19 sock.
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Ravens cut Mike Davis, activate JK Dobbins. Will we finally have Gus and JK in the backfield at the same time, with Ronnie Stanley at LT? Bring that shiz.
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Still hints of low pressure developing near the gulf for this period. This sort of look could produce a low tracking up along but somewhat off the coast, potentially better for the lowlands.
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lol I am no expert, but I guess I have learned enough over the years to identify the important features and their interactions in a given setup. Large scale fluid mechanics. Cool stuff and complex. I actually enjoy it.
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Not sure what you are on about here. I focus on the synoptics and the features at the surface and aloft each model cycle, so I guess I see things from a different perspective than you do.
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Pretty much the same. No one here cares about rain this time of year though.
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A shame we cant get someone to post a few 12z Euro maps in the LR thread.
