CAPE

It's the Tony Pann coastal low!!!

lol

Euro/CMC vs. GFS again? I'm just rooting for that little sliver of gray to shift north a bit for mby flizzard. CMC has it too and its even more pronounced.

Progressive flow and the position/orientation of the upstream ridge are key factors influencing the ability of the shortwave to gain latitude before heading off the coast. CMC gets it done by having the ridge axis further west at the point the shortwave drops down. Another factor is the position and strength of the northern stream vortex over eastern Canada- it's stronger and digs further south on the Euro/EPS with a more amplified ridge.

Posting a 500mb map longer than 2 weeks out should result in 3 day ban This is p funny coming from the dude who has a shit fit on the reg when a 15 day op run doesn't show blue in your yard.

Good plan, but wtf is a self respecting snow starved weenie supposed to do when there's nothing inside 7 days?

Ravens might want to put in a claim. No risk at all, and given the utter mediocrity of their current WR corps, what's there to lose? He knows the system, not that anyone couldn't know Roman's 'system' in about 5 mins.

We just can't know yet. More pattern tracking.

ENSO is forecast to trend neutral mid to late winter, so what we end up with for a longwave pattern is a bit of a wildcard. Certainly not out of the question it could lean more Nino-like. Kind of seeing that already.

Fwiw. Aligns pretty well with the pattern progression on the GEFSX.

Oh was Pann the weenie he went after? lmao if so.

Sounds like he said something that pissed off the edgy NE snow weenies.

lol. yes we know John.

Whatever gets people to read his blog. Ofc Siberia is anomalously 'warm' with a massive upper ridge in the WPO/EPO space. That feature is key for getting the air from up there to transfer down into the midlatitudes- the incoming anomalous cold. That ridge will be trending weaker over the next week or so, to be replaced by a TPV, so Siberia will actually be getting colder into early Jan. His choice of words plus that specific map implies something different.

Dude has a very narrowly focused perspective of how the atmosphere works, plus an agenda.

Yeah it's a progressive look, and with the western ridge shifting east and breaking overtop as advertised it would be tough.

Canadian ens has been pretty consistent with a signal for a modest wave tracking under us around the 27-28th. GEFS has had it too at times over the past few days.

Harbs will dig in. Unless it comes from up top, zero chance anything happens until the offseason.

Had a solid 3" here from that one. Plus the mini whiteout at the end. That was fun and doesn't happen often.

Not many but the GFS loves to advertise it.

Bristow must be high. Laughing at every post.

The Ravens may stumble their way into the playoffs, but they better not need that game against the Bengals the last game of the season. No chance. And good luck against them, the Bills, or the Chiefs in the postseason. Or the Chargers should they get in.

Latest GEFSx gets us to this look moving into the second week of Jan. Based off the 0z GEFS run from yesterday that goes out to Jan 3. Should this progression transpire, mid to late Jan should be colder than normal, coinciding with near peak climo for cold/snow.

The reality is that the pattern will reshuffle some and we will end up with whatever we get lol. Hoping for 'tweaks' of the current pattern is probably just as unlikely to yield better outcomes. Are we suddenly going to get a persistent vortex near the Canadian Maritimes under the NAO ridge instead of heights building there and developing a full lat ridge whenever a trough approaches? That would be a nice adjustment of the current pattern but not sure that's realistic either. Whatever transpires, one thing we will have in our favor going forward is better climo. Lets just hope the Pacific doesn't go to crap in conjunction with the AO going super positive.

No real relax/reshuffle/warm up on the CMC ens. Just reload. More of the same general (Epic ) pattern. Go Canada!