CAPE

Regarding the late week period and storm potential- as advertised there may be enough cold nearby to get involved(for favored areas) should a wave track close enough. Guidance has generally been suggesting a southern shortwave ejecting northeastward along the boundary at that time, but the depicted location/orientation of the NS energy dropping down with an amplified EPO ridge(breaking) would tend to dampen it and shunt it eastward off the coast to our south. Far enough out that the location/interaction of these features will likely change some. A thread the needle type deal, and fighting climo for the lowlands. 6z GFS h5 heights/ vorticity for reference-

0.64" total

Early season cold tends to drain into the intermountain west/ the N central US, and from there it can sometimes make it into the south central US. So yes, not that uncommon for places like that to see measurable snow sooner than many areas of the MA.

I made a post about the 'potential' during this period a couple days ago, and it has been discussed since. The advertised pattern has been pretty good, with possible waves riding the boundary, but climo is a major problem. Next week should feature legit wintry conditions (with some snow chances) for the western highlands, but further east, probably just some chilly weather and any wave that tracks close enough would probably be rain. Never know though- some frozen not out of the question esp inland.

Pattern as advertised on GEFS is 'getting there' towards the end of the month. The (upcoming) Pac jet retraction has the ideal ridge/trough position around AK inverted as depicted, so that could use some work. The AO is slightly+ to neutral. NAO trending negative.. moving into Dec ideally we see the NA +heights shifted a bit more over central/southern GL, with the associated trough further SE towards the 50-50 region, and some improvement in the Pacific. All that said, we see winter storms quite often with less than ideal h5 patterns. Need to get into the front end of snow climo period as much as anything.

Exactly the same amount here. The forecast and most guidance only had a half inch or so here though.

0.46" here so far. Done for now.

Modeled 'favorable' patterns in Nov look good on paper. That is all.

Lets just see if we can actually get our first freeze early next week. Looks marginal for the lowlands, but decent chance most areas (outside of DC proper) can get below 32 for a few hours Monday and/or Tuesday morning.

The pattern as advertised is decent enough, with some timing/luck ofc. Beyond that, it's mostly just too soon outside of the highlands. Looks like a bit of a relaxation for the end of the month, so hopefully we get another shot around mid December. I never expect snow in Dec, but it would be nice for a change.

Still a ways off, but the way the pattern appears to be evolving/progressing on the latest LR ens guidance, next weekend into early the following week might feature the best chance for a winter type storm, with possibly several waves riding along the boundary during that period. Climo is the biggest problem ofc. This look a month later would be more interesting.

With the -EPO/WPO getting established, cold air will be able to increase/expand in our source region via cross polar flow. Follow the streamlines.

I made a post about the potential for next week a few days ago using h5 from a global ens mean. At 7 days out just posting a snow map without any supporting discussion of the setup, well, that's not really very useful in a discussion thread. And yes, it will quickly cascade into a race to see who can be first to post a snow map for the next model cycle. Meh.

Just an opinion and not directed at anyone in particular, but it would be nice if the snow maps could be posted in the digital snow thread. They become marginally useful with additional synoptic discussion when there is an actual threat in the short range. Otherwise we will see discussion threads become cluttered with random snow maps every model cycle.

Pretty chilly next week coast to coast.

The schedule is favorable for a run. Defense could transform from a debacle the first few games to a dominant unit with the players that are returning, the addition of Smith, and younger players like Hamilton figuring it out. Wish there was some way to get a legit receiver, but OBJ would probably be the only option for a significant upgrade at this point, and he will have suitors that will pay him more than the Ravens. Probably Jerry Jones.

I mentioned it in banter thinking someone else would start it lol. My interest was mainly to declutter this thread a bit. Go for it my man.

Not dying for rain over here. An inch would do nicely.

Just wish there was some sign of an actual professional level passing game. We will see how far they can go with good TEs, mediocre receivers, and Roman's simplistic schemes. OL looks healthy and dominant, and Edwards should be back after the bye week. Smash mouth and Defense will have to do it- the Raven way. Smith is a tackling machine and makes a huge difference in the middle.

Ravens offense tonight against NO- No Bateman(now out for the season) No Andrews No Gus the Bus And no Dobbins Good luck Lamar! Will need a dominant performance from the OL, and Likely will need to have a big game. And the defense needs to kick some azz.

Nicole remnant thread?

CFS continues to look pretty weenie with the pattern progression heading into early Dec. Love seeing those +height anomalies in the HL.

Thankfully this anomalous warmth is done, although it may feel pretty tropical with some heavy rain towards the end of the week. Should be frosty tomorrow night. By Sunday into Monday high temps wont make 50 and there is a decent shot at first freeze for the lowlands.

It distorted expectations for some for awhile. Ji still hasn't recovered.

Yeah that's the timing aspect. NS energy dropping in could phase with a wave, it could come in overtop/just out in front and dampen it, suppress it, etc. A vorticity lobe moving off the Canadian Maritimes would act as a 50-50, but without an actual block to the north it would be a transient feature. That's why we love the 2009-10 pattern so much- the ideal synoptic set up with HL blocking plus the active southern stream made timing less critical. Was just a matter of waiting for a healthy wave to come along and track underneath. Maybe we finally get that again next winter.