CAPE

1.1". Up to 3.1" for July now. A good couple days here.

Ok I get it now. I usually just blow past the gibberish

Getting some beneficial moderate to heavy rain here with the main show. A few rumbles of thunder. Very little wind. No complaints, but not exciting. With all the talk of training and back building, this seems very progressive. Perhaps a different story up north. Just hit an inch. Probably not much more looking at radar.

It's decent since yesterday. Pretty darn dry locally before that. Areas all around generally did very well the past week.

As good as the radar looked with that stuff developing to my south, only 0.2" so far. Came together just to the N and E. All comes down to that line coming across the bay.

Yeah they dug out of their rut in a big way the past week.

Os be kicking some ass. Heading into the all star break on a roll.

You are going to get PUMMELED! dude.

Keeping an eye on the cells popping to my south moving northward ahead of the main action.

86 sunny and sultry here. Next few hours should be interesting. Glad I had an inch+ yesterday though!

Morning AFD on heavy rain threat from Mount Holly- Heavy Rain/Flash flooding: There are a lot of factors increasing our concern with the heavy rain threat. For much of the region, models depict precipitable water values around 2 inches which is above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Additionally, the warm cloud layer should be between 10K and 14K ft through much of this period (meaning storms will be far more efficient with heavy rain rates). While storm motions will be slightly faster than what we`ve seen the last few days (generally 10 to 20 mph), but depending on how quickly the low lifts northeast, there could be potential for training storms as the mean cloud layer flow is expected to be parallel to the front for much of the period. Given the increasing concern for flash flood potential, expanded the flood watch to include the entire area. Although flash flood guidance is generally higher in southern DE, adjacent areas of MD, and SE NJ, concern is for flooding along the more flash flood vulnerable coastal and tidal areas.

The notably warmer oceans overall now compared to then was the primary point of the post. Still hoping for a moderate Nino, more CP based, for the test case.

Soil was very dry here until an hour ago. Doesn't take long this time of year, esp in the woods. Tomorrow should be a more widespread event for the region.

Right at 2" for the month. Needed this one today. Plants got a good drink.

It's been interesting watching the radar this week, with the outflow boundaries from one decaying cell initiating another one, and the process continues. The stuff that came through really consolidated to my east. Booming thunder still although the rain has stopped here. 1.05" for the total.

0.95" in less than 15 mins. Not bad. Some nice T&L too.

Nice tropical deluge now.

Had a quick downpour, but mostly its all around, as has been the case the last 6 days. See what happens in the next few mins..

Glad you are ok, and congrats on the clutch play!

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/

Os are now only 3 games out with the Rays losing 6 straight.

Oceans are a heat sink, and there is more heat so..

Didn't see it specified on that site. TT still uses 1981-2010 climo for SSTs, so that might be an indication.

There will be a larger scale mechanism for ascent via an approaching shortwave plus plenty of moisture streaming northward later this weekend. The result should be more shear/organized convection, compared to the weak flow aloft and subtle(localized) forcing triggers of the past several days. A more widespread heavy rain threat plus some severe potential across the area looks likely. Hopefully the 'have nots' can cash in.