CAPE

6z GEFS and 0z EPS

A bit more convoluted but the other globals have the same general idea. With that broad HP there and a front in the vicinity, there should be an area of LL convergence with an impressive moisture feed.

CMC, Icon, and Euro(0z) also have the same idea- a disturbance in the SE tracking northward on the western periphery of the Atlantic High getting entrained in the front associated with the remnants of Beryl.

I'll be monitoring my weather station from afar lol.

Looks like a potential disturbance in the flow around the western side of the broad W Atlantic High combined with a frontal boundary associated with the remnant low moving eastward(possibly slowing/stalling) could set up an extended heavy rain threat for late week. Long way off and we know how this has gone lately.

Looking forward to missing out on it. I will be back for the stretch run of actual summer though, and then MA extended summer through October.

Thanks! Watched the match today. Hoping to be at a local pub watching them in the finals. That would be pretty awesome.

That's 100

Os need to find at least one more legit starter, and one reliever. Povich isn't ready and needs to be demoted, like now.

Beautiful. Took some vacations in that general area years ago- Boone, Blowing Rock etc. Microclimate in winter- quite cold and relatively snowy for that latitude(at least back then). I'm sure it is still to some degree.

I'll be escaping the heat and humidity beginning mid week. A short stay in Dublin then off to the greater Manchester UK area until the end of the month. Weather looks nice through at least mid month, with high temps ranging from the mid 60s to the low 70s. Hoping for some rain at home so I don't come back to a bunch of burned up plants lol. Grass will do what it always does.

High of 95 here.

88/73 Sultry.

High of 95 here today. Currently 83 approaching 10 pm.

All the dairy farms around here have extensive irrigation systems. It is a must given the scattered, inconsistent nature of summer rains. Not sure how any farm in our region can depend exclusively on mother nature to deliver the needed water for feed corn etc.

Yeah I saw the big totals in your area on the radar estimate. Places in SNJ had 4-6" during that period.

Snippet from Mount Holly morning AFD focused on Saturday- Low pressure lifts northward into Ontario Friday night into Saturday with a strengthening southerly flow developing in the warm sector over the area ahead of an approaching cold front. This will ratchet up the mugginess even further with dewpoints potentially reaching over 75 degrees in some areas by Saturday afternoon. Combined with forecast highs for Saturday once again in the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas, this could bring peak heat indices in the range of 102 to 107 degrees, meaning heat headlines would be needed if this forecast holds. The synoptic scale lift provided by the cold front along with abundant moisture looks to result in widespread showers and storms by Saturday afternoon into the evening. And at this point, both severe weather and flash flooding look to be a threat. We remain particularly concerned seeing progged PWat values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is again is close to climatological maxes.

Low of 58 this morning. Won't be seen that again anytime soon.

It's a smoothed snapshot on a seasonal model at super long range. The overall look may be unappealing, but within that general longwave pattern you can see the potential for a period or 2 of cross Polar flow with a -EPO and the TPV stretched and in that position. As we have seen in some recent Ninas, a couple relatively short lived cold periods(and a little luck with timing) within an overall mild winter pattern can produce a few good snow events along the east coast.

77/53 What a difference a day makes. Ofc this time of year this can't last very long. Back into the low 90s with dewpoints into the 70s for the 4th. That should be the beginning of a period that will feature some t-storm chances.

Got lucky here with that southward moving line of storms last night. Picked up exactly an inch from that and ended up with 1.28" for the day.

Getting a nice storm here now. Nothing severe, but some glorious heavy rain.

Evapotranspiration, or as some call it in those areas- corn sweat. Those are some crazy high DPs. Plenty of feed corn growing around here with all of the dairy farms in this area, but I have never really observed a notable increase in summer dewpoints compared to surrounding urban areas. Smaller scale compared to a place like Iowa though.

88/76 Not as hot here but still a sauna.

Another tenth lol. Hopefully I can nickel and dime to a half inch. Looks promising for later on some guidance, while others have convection focused to the east.