CAPE

Unless something pops today, looks like my monthly total will be 9.78". The grass to burned thatch ratio is somewhat better than usual.

Yep, just saw that. He would have been a nice addition. I hope the Os don't go bargain basement. They have the prospects to make a significant addition or 2 to put them in a good position for a postseason run.

With the demotion of Tyler Wells to double-A to get rest/controlled work, it seems the Os intend to pick up a veteran starter before the deadline. Wells seemingly hit a bit of a wall and the same might happen with the other young starters. Reports are linking the Orioles to Mike Lorenzen. Probably a decent pickup of they can pull it off, but he is sort of having a career year and the prior 8 seasons pitched 100 innings or less. Not ideal given the state of the current rotation. The Cardinals are selling and Montgomery would be a better fit. More durable, innings eater, and having a good season.

Picked up 0.33" with a localized heavy downpour around 430 am. There was a 20% pop. My yard can't miss lately lol.

9.45" for the month. Outside chance of exceeding 10 for the month with the disturbance moving through tomorrow. Pretty scattered chances though, and probably light overall. Sunny and 81/60 currently. Hard to do better this time of year.

Feels awesome out. Got the Jeep washed. Plenty to do outside the next 2 days before I leave for jolly old England. Weather here looks as good as it gets for a while, but I am sure I will return to stifling heat lol. Over there, highs in the mid 60s and lows in low to mid 50s, with shower chances each day through next weekend.

Quick hitter here. Garden variety. 0.30"

91/73 Not awful, and the breeze helps a bit.

Definitely not as bad as yesterday. So who is impressing? Would be nice to see Dobbins and Bateman make an appearance.

Caught the edge of another storm that is mostly to my southeast. 0.17"

0.93" Nothing severe. 8.95" for the month

Heavy rain with booming thunder and lightning, but very little wind so far. Had enough of that on Tuesday.

It's noisy with continuous lightning. Getting closer. I don't need the wind though.

Continuous thunder to the west. See what it do.

Feels like a Margarita happy hour. Cheers!

High here was 93. 88 currently. Very oppressive with the high dewpoints.

Mount Holly afternoon AFD mentions the shortwave and storm chances this evening/overnight- Latest analysis shows a very subtle boundary straddling the Delmarva and southern NJ on a southeast-northwest alignment. This boundary, after pushing south across the region overnight, will move back northeast across the region this evening into tonight. Dew points remain sultry on the south side of this boundary, but to the north, temperatures and dew points are running just a bit shy of expectations, keeping heat indices lower than expected. That said, will retain heat headlines as-is even though it looks like we may be falling short. Aloft, a notable shortwave is over the Appalachians to our west, heading east. This looks to be the trigger for thunderstorms now developing in that general vicinity. Expect these to continue moving generally eastward thru the rest of the afternoon into the evening, possibly crossing a majority of the region, but most likely areas from Philly south and west. They will be feeding on the weak shear with the aforementioned shortwave and the plentiful CAPE (over 2000 j/kg) just south of the aforementioned boundary. This will therefore provide at least a marginal risk of severe weather, so SPC has added these areas to the marginal risk. Will need to watch convection and instability trends closely this evening, as its not out of the question a further ramp-up is eventually needed, but for now am comfortable with current forecast. Shortwave moves on by overnight, but then remnants of developing MCS`s further west may come into play. Lots of uncertainty here, with some guidance showing them holding together late tonight into early Saturday, while others completely dissipate them as they cross the mountains. Thus, have slight chance POPS for most late tonight into Saturday morning.

93/76 Sultry

Maybe today ends up the better day for more places. Yesterday was more talked up, but it didn't produce much in our region.

The Os should really focus more on the bullpen for pitching help- at least one more solid middle reliever is probably a must if they want to get anywhere in the postseason. A starter would be nice too, but not easy to get without giving up pitching prospects, and then someone gets displaced. Means should be back at some point too, probably early September.

12 km NAM and FV3 HR look very similar to the GFS, with some timing differences. Latest 3km NAM has some action too, but somewhat different placement within the region.

Some recent model runs, especially the 6z GFS, seem to be keying on a disturbance in the flow, potentially inducing an area of more widespread heavy showers for this evening.

90/75 More humid than hot here. High was 91.

Yeah one big storm or a few moderate ones and I am above here. The latter is what happened the winter before last- almost all of it fell in Jan which was nice as it stuck around longer.

Highly variable here. Last winter was a disaster for the entire MA, but the winter before was good relative to average- 20" imby. Long term mean snowfall is 18" or so here. I haven't hated the Ninas since the 2015-16 Nino winter. The coastal plain has cashed in pretty often with late developing coastal scrapers. The neutral/weak Nino winters since 2015 have largely sucked.