CAPE

Had a brief downpour overnight with a rumble of thunder, otherwise just some light rain. 0.34"

Getting some steady light rain here in the stable marine airmass. Currently 69. Have to see how this plays out tonight. I am guessing any storms that try to move east will tend to die out. I'll settle for the leftovers.

Might play out something like 2018. Early Jan bomb cyclone courtesy of an impressive +PNA/-EPO ridge with cross polar flow, followed by a late winter -NAO episode with a non hostile Pacific, resulting in a mid March SECS.

Mid 80s and humid earlier in the day. Back doored since. Breezy and coolish outside now, 75. Can feel the marine influence. Probably kills any storms that try to move east though, and it is bone dry here again.

If we get an h5 pattern similar to this, with the Aleutian ridge more poleward and the suggestion of periodic -EPO episodes, we could end up with a good few weeks to a month of actual winter similar to Jan 2022. The other thing you like to see in a Nina is a somewhat southward displaced/stretched TPV. Occasional cold air pressing southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and TPV in a gradient pattern with a well timed wave is a pretty straight forward path to victory for our area in a Nina.

High of 94. Still 91 at 5pm.

That was a good Nina winter, esp the beach blizzard chase. The 2021-22 Nina was better in my yard, with 3 Jan snowstorms, including snow on snow. Right around 20" for the month. Plus I identified the potential for the early Jan storm weeks before when we were mired in the 'shit the blinds' pattern with no apparent end in sight. Was fun to track from LR to short range, to it actually coming to fruition- although it left PSU land high and dry. Not much of anything snow-wise before or after that over here though. Some bad luck in Feb. That was an epic Jan by today's standards, so that winter goes down as a big win.

52

I am starting today. I have the initial area raked and soil loosened. I stick with Jonathan Green Black Beauty Original and use their Green up starter fertilizer.

Low of 51

Os can't catch a break lol. Another one down. Hopefully they can keep playing .500 and get in, while getting Grayson back and maybe Elfin for the end of the reg season and playoffs.

High of 72. Currently 67. Nice breeze all day too. Perfect.

Yes this second batch hit pretty squarely. Just over a half inch so far.

A banging thunderstorm happening now a couple miles to my SW, but not likely to deliver any rain here. The one last night passed just to the north by a mile or 2 lol. Oh well. Nature of the beast.

Picked up a hundredth yesterday lol. Everything managed to avoid my yard. Glad I got that rain Saturday morning that wasn't supposed to happen, because the high probability period for heavy rain beyond that was a fail.

Storms well NW and well SE of here. In a bigger gap of nothingness than last night lol.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 319 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Sussex County in southern Delaware... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 319 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Millsboro, or near Georgetown, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. * Locations impacted include... Georgetown, Millsboro, Milton, and Henlopen Acres.

Decadal- i.e. decadal scale. It is often multiple decades. Doesn't mean the phase shifts every 10 years.

The Os offense needs to snap out of this inconsistent mode. With all the injuries/other shortcomings with the pitching staff, this team won't go far unless the bats get going again, especially situational hitting.

Cool. I love the beach in winter. And you won't have to chase those Nina beach blizzards. Seem to be happening more often lately.

84/74. Sultry. Plenty of mid/late afternoon sun to help fuel convection. Hopefully there is a more consolidated line so the haves outnumber the have nots. The actual front comes through tomorrow, so there will be another chance with that, followed by an early Fall preview.

Mostly got missed last night. Picked up 0.17" as a storm skirted by to the southeast. 0.82" since yesterday morning.

Its gonna be close. That gap of nothingness is legit.

That might actually make it here. Sinking southward. The gap has closed.