CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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The latter.
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Classic Harbaugh clock (mis)management. Lets not use 2 timeouts and settle for a field goal.
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Defense looks flat. Now Hamilton is out. Rams look sharp. Maybe the Ravens ability to come back will be tested. Haven't really seen that this season.
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Started raining here a little after 10am. Heard a few rumbles of thunder. 0.55" so far.
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3km went from 0.5 to 5.5" on the 10:1 map here lol. Forecast seems about right- rain/snow mix, little or no accumulation.
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I don't see significant can kicking at all. First, consider that this is an extended tool. In the first case we are looking out to day 29, in the second day 23. Given the smoothing in the features with time on the extended guidance, the looks seem pretty similar. In addition, there is subjective interpretation. I might think the run initializing on the 9th looks a little better in the NA for example.
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It does. Still holds significant weight, imo.
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Slight. Given other factors, not enough to make any difference.
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Are we now in the model hallucination stage of the program, preceding the radar hallucination stage?
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It's literally the same, outside of minor run to run noise.
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I would love this to reflect ground truth, but it won't be (as most of us know). At this point I think there is a decent shot of non accumulating snow in the air east of the Fall line, and an inch or 2 up your way, with several inches in the western highlands. That would be an area wide win imo given how this looked not too long ago.
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This would work. A bit east based but this is a 7 day h5 anomaly- it does evolve to a Baffin block for a time. Again, my wag is we see relatively short lived negative NAO episodes, but good enough with the persistent STJ tossing waves our way. Surely we can time something.
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Agree with this. I think we will see episodes of a favorable NA, of the variety more like 2016 than 2009-10, which developed early via a Scandi/EPO ridge bridge, and was impressively sustained.
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Also the EPS is suggestive of h5 heights increasing into the NAO domain. This is really what I am keeping an eye on. We pretty much know what the Pacific is going to be based on location of Nino forcing, but we really could benefit from a more favorable NA.
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The dominant feature is the NE Pac low as expected, but it has indeed retrograded as predicted.
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I was referring to his 97-98 reference, implying the entire winter will be a disaster.
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Advertised surface temps with moderate to heavy precip falling (snow verbatim). It would certainly require dynamic cooling to get it done. At the very least I am feeling pretty good about a couple inches of slop in PSU's yard to save winter.
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I will say this just looking at recent runs of the GFS- that shortwave is sharper and the trough tilts negative sooner, resulting in the surface low popping further south and a bit more developed as it hits the coast. That might be enough to allow the cold to come in with significant precip still ongoing.
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We are going to need some help in the NA. All signs still point in that direction in the coming weeks.
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I hope the flakes fly for the NW crew, but it's just good to see a juiced up storm. Looking like a widespread 2 inch+ rain event. Good sign as we head into our better climo period. Looks like a sloppy Ravens game.. hopefully they can run for 300.
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Update on the mid month potential- pretty strong signal for a coastal storm at this range, but as previously discussed, cold air availability appears limited. Look at the surface pressure to our north- it is the inverse of what we want for a northerly flow of continental air into a developing storm, and there is a lack of antecedent cold to begin with. The way the setup looks now, this could be a significant snow event for the highlands of NC northward, depending on the exact evolution/storm track.
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I made a reply post to him yesterday- the last time he misinterpreted a twitter post on the subject, illustrating how jet extensions lead to a +PNA. @brooklynwx99 also made a similar post. To no avail. Perpetual deb.
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Why do you post this stuff when you clearly don't even know how to interpret it? Stay in the damn Panic thread FFS.
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My choice would have been the high gravity stuff- probably 30 or 31 lol. Sipping on a Utopias Barrel aged 120 min IPA for Friday HH right now.
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Verbatim it looks a few degrees above average. So no snow on Xmas = torch. What a jerk.
