CAPE

Someone been a little quiet in the main thread lately. Probably poring over X in search of some super Nino backup. Post with multiple link dump coming soon.

Moderate to maybe low end strong seems most likely at this juncture based on the current metrics/historical analogs

Predicted SST anomalies weaken some in the east/expand westward- takes on a more basin wide look further into winter. Just a couple seasonal models ofc. Need to see what the updated runs look like. PDO is what it is, but there are hints it may be less negative going forward.

Latest guidance depicts a shift in the longwave pattern after next week's warmth. Could bring some legit Fall weather.

The CWG article was an example of hyperbolic clickbait. 'woke' and 'radical WaPo' was all you.

Os now with their best record since 1980. Magic number is 1. 2 years removed from a 110 loss season, they will win 100+.

PR doesn't exist anymore.

"AGW nonsense" This is a science based forum. Political opinions are irrelevant here.

Stop with the 'woke' crap. It is used as a political pejorative and has no place on the weather side. Take that shit elsewhere.

Having an active STJ improves chances for favorable storm tracks in our region, so that is a check if the atmosphere behaves in a Nino-ish way. We need some help in the HLs and the -QBO is at least suggestive that we won't see a raging +AO/NAO. Even if those indices are neutral, we can get cold air delivery via the EPO. No idea on impacts due to higher WV in the strat. As usual snow chances will come down to wave timing and how much cold is available. After 3 straight Ninas and NS dominance, at least this will be a roll of the dice that is historically more in our favor.

It has had the favorable Nino h5 look for multiple runs, with the last 2 being especially weenie. Would be a bad sign if it bailed now when we are actually sniffing winter.

It is generally better. I made the post wrt to the discussion above regarding Dec being a winter month anymore.. white Xmas or torch. CanSIPS at least suggests a chance of the former, CFS not so much.

The 'big heat' should stay to our west. GFS(as usual) is warmer than the other globals. Looks like a week of generally upper 70s-low 80s for the MA. Warm enough.

I like crisp cool late Fall sunny days. Neutral otherwise. Hate sun in summer.

One of the best ever. RIP

you charlie?

CPC/NCEP still expecting a moderate to strong Nino for the winter months fwiw. The hyperbolic super Nino talk comes mostly from agenda driven twitter randos, and the forum favorite daily post limited member.

It's definitely annoying to drive in.

We in the slight risk for excessive drizzle.

Congrats NC

This is like the weather in the UK in early August, but with less sun lol.

Another day of perpetual drizzle. Tomorrow is the day to get outside and do something. Looks like more shower chances for the end of the week.

True, but less noisy than looking at every run. Goes back and forth every 10 days to 2 weeks typically. CFS is a somewhat of a useful tool maybe a month out.

This is a more realistic depiction of what the CFS is currently advertising for December. Not saying it has the right idea, but you can't glean anything useful about the potential longwave pattern a couple months out from a single run of the CFS.