CAPE

Looking ahead at the big picture, nothing wrong with this h5 look. I'm sure some will nitpick this or that, but this is a cold look for much of the lower 48. GEPS is similar, with a prominent west based -NAO. The advertised h5 look on the GEFS is clearly not as favorable, but verbatim even it suggests temps are normal/slightly below into the second week of Jan.

All 3 ensemble means have the storm for the 7th on the 0z runs. EPS has the strongest signal for low pressure tracking just off the NC coast with decent cold in place. GEPS is weaker/ further SE, and the GEFS is sort of in the middle- still looks like there are a few camps among the members on low position (as illustrated in my post last evening), but I didn't bother looking at the individual panels this morning. Upshot is this still looks like the best opportunity for frozen in the next 10 days. Verbatim on the EPS it is cold enough for a snow event for western areas, further east it is a bit more marginal but easily the coldest we seen in a long time while actually precipitating. Based on the EPS, my wag would be rain/mix to snow from the Fall line points east.

Yeah Lamar should have at least 5 more TD passes/runs

I really think(and hope) it's wrong. Like a lot of things, we have no control over these outcomes. It will be what it will be, and life goes on. That said, the Ravens better fucking beat the Dolphins

End of the latest EPS run- Latest Euro Weeklies- the pattern progression through the mid Jan period. Go ahead and freak out about the latest GEFS runs, even though the advertised pattern progression doesn't align with Nino forcing, and looks more Nina like. I'll go with the higher res/better track record of the Euro on this one. Could be wrong. My guess is that those who think the GEFS is more correct are predisposed to expecting the worst case scenario.

The ens runs don't even get to mid Jan technically. And why is this a 'bad pattern'?

HH for the 7th- a few camps among the members, from milder and NW with the track to colder and suppressed, and the in between scenario. Still a good signal for frozen in general for the MA. Exact details cannot be known at this juncture.

0.90" Underperformer, and I am happy about it. Soil is saturated with water laying around in the lower/ heavy soil areas. 6.44" for the month.

Yeah the timing and degree of interaction with any NS energy is going to be critical for determining the exact outcome. That was absent last run. We just cant know yet lol.

6z GEFS is even more impressive for the 7th wrt the surface low strength and frozen potential. Looks especially good along/west of the Fall line.

The 10-11th potential looks to involve a significant piece of NS energy, so our area may be on the milder side with the focus for frozen further NW. Still a long way out so plenty can change. Behind that the central and eastern US may see more impressive cold. Advertised h5 look on the GEFS is favorable with indications of a ridge building over AK, and a west based -NAO. Hints of another wave at the end of the run but that's way out there.

Both the 0z GEFS and EPS continue to signal potential storms for the 4th, 7th, and the 10-11th timeframe. The first 2 look like lows that track underneath and off the coast of VA/NC. The potential for the 10th looks more complicated, with a possible primary tracking to our west. For now I think the 7th looks the most promising for some sort of a moderate frozen/mixed event across the region given the h5 look, track, and cold air availability.

gib·ber·ish Gibberish, also called jibber-jabber or gobbledygook, is speech that is nonsense: ranging across speech sounds that are not actual words, pseudowords, language games and specialized jargon that seems nonsensical to outsiders.

Damn dude, you've had way more than me.

I find little value in snowfall maps on an ens mean 8+ days out. Still trying to glean the general idea.

I'm not sure you understand the fundamental purpose of the ensembles. Pretty sure you don't. You could google it.

Interpretation of an ens mean vs an op run is a bit of a skill.. defo nuanced.

Is this a bad look on the 18z GEFS? This is the look on the 18z GFS operational at h5, same time. Apparently bad though. Some of you need to do better, or stay in the damn panic thread and moan.

Some of y'all would be better off never looking at an op run at range. Seriously.

For those who look at the 18z GFS and think it is a crap run verbatim (Hi Ji), remember it is a single op run and we are still 8 + days out from the initial window of interest. Look at the big picture at h5- the shortwaves are on the playing field, rolling across the southern US, while the HL look is favorable(note the oranges/ reds in the right places). We just can't know the details yet.

When the goal is snow and most of us live well east of the Allegheny front, like I said, it's super easy to be a pessimist. Boring. More rewarding to do the analysis, have fun with the tracking process, and when it pays off, fucking enjoy the hell out of it. Frankly, some here should find another hobby.

Its easy af to be pessimistic, given our location. What's the point in doing that though? We know the potential upside when it all comes together. Lets look for the key pieces that can make that happen. They are there on guidance.

Not by me.

Don't spoil it, I have slow ass WB. That has been a window of interest.

It's HH. Feeling optimistic about HH GFS. (Probably partly because this Old Fashioned is over the top good). This place needs a lift. Lets see what it do.