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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    The NPAC gyre and associated currents affect the PDO and the (warm) SSTs near Japan, but understanding all the variables and intricacies is beyond the scope of my interest lol. I have other things to do.
  2. CAPE
    Continuing to see SSTs cool north of Hawaii, and also some increase in temps in Gulf of AK and along the US west coast. PDO appears to be trending towards positive.
  3. CAPE
    Maybe you have finally figured it out. I doubt it though. I predict many Ji "disaster" posts based on LR GFS op runs.
  4. CAPE
    6z GFS: Hi Nina
  5. CAPE
    We need some precip. Soil is parched. Blowing leaves kicks up a lot of dust. The farmers doing their Fall thing create ground level dust storms.
  6. CAPE
    Not sure about that, but it should be a little better than an inch or whatever fell there last winter lol.
  7. CAPE
    Yeah, let it be mild in Nov. Who cares. Only point I am making is the longwave pattern can look like crap in mid to late Nov in a developing Nino, and there is not much to be gleaned from that wrt the character of winter as a whole. I really don't expect this Dec to be anything like 2009, but it could be decent. My thinking is mid Jan through Feb will be the favorable period where we may get just enough cold with a more favorable HL look, in conjunction with an established STJ.
  8. CAPE
    Not saying this is how it will go, but this is where we are at h5 on the means roughly 10 days from now.. Compare it to around the same time Nov of 2009- And this is where the pattern ended up a few weeks later-
  9. CAPE
    The Roundy-Webb parrot will be right back at it when his daily post limit expires/renews at 1201am. Can't wait.
  10. CAPE
    High of 72 here, but temps dropped into the 60s mid/late afternoon with some clouds moving in. Currently 60.
  11. CAPE
    Not much of interest in the near term other than modest rain chances for some areas late this week and a chilly period late weekend into early next week. Outside chance eastern areas get brushed by a coastal storm off of NC early next week. Towards Thanksgiving there are hints of some change in the pattern, with a -EPO and a neutral/slightly positive PNA. AO and NAO look to remain somewhat positive. There is still a signal for a storm leading up to Thanksgiving. Still looks mild but might be our next best shot at some widespread rain across the region.
  12. CAPE
    They are who we thought they were. I would like to see Lamar with more TD passes, but when you can dominate on the ground like that, you eat clock and demoralize a defense.
  13. CAPE
    They are. And still without Williams, Bowser, and Ojabo lol.
  14. CAPE
    Ravens are so good at the UFA game.
  15. CAPE
    Mitchell baby! Finally. What a find he was. Feel bad for Dobbins, but he is probably done as a Raven.
  16. CAPE
    From 37 to 67. Feels even warmer.
  17. CAPE
    I bet Terrapin Depth Perception DIPA would have stimulated those taste buds a bit. Super hoppy on the front end.
  18. CAPE
    Wow pretty protracted but sounds like you are on the mend. I had an ear infection during the summer of covid(not from covid though) and was given amoxicillin, which caused a severe body rash. No more of that stuff. Took prednisone to get rid of the rash. Loved that shit while it lasted lol. Happy pills.
  19. CAPE
    How long has it been? And iirc you didn't test positive for COVID?
  20. CAPE
    It's also a great NFL football day. 4 matchups of top teams beginning with KC and Miami in Germany. Kickoff at 930am, so ofc I will start off with a Breakfast Stout from Flying Dog. I have some DFH 90 min IPAs in the fridge so might have one of those later. Depending on how the Ravens play, I might just go straight to the hard stuff.
  21. CAPE
    A lot depends on the Pac jet strength/position of the exit region. Recent ens runs are digging a trough into the GoA just beyond mid month, but right at the end of the runs it seems to flatten and the PNA appears to trend positive. Definitely some volatility wrt the Pacific pattern. I have no expectations for November/early Dec other than seasonable weather, and we could use a little rain.
  22. CAPE
    High of 64 yesterday. Low of 37 this morning.
  23. CAPE
    Where's the cold in that pattern? +AO/NAO, neutral PNA. Looks like a mild Pacific air mass.
  24. CAPE
    Put a tree guard around it and hope it survives the existing damage. Since it is only on half or less of the tree, it might be ok.
  25. CAPE
    Third consecutive night aob freezing. Currently 32.
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