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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Front moving through now. Wind has kicked up with an increase in clouds. No rain ofc, but it sounds like it with all the leaves plopping on the roof.
  2. CAPE
    Snippet from Mount Holly AFD wrt Thanksgiving day- However, some models/ensemble members, most notably the 00Z GFS, depict another closed mid level low developing, resulting in surface cyclogenesis, with another round of precipitation possible on Thursday as the low slides off shore over Delmarva. For now, I`ve stayed close to a consensus blend that doesn`t include the GFS as I can`t recall another event with an evolution like this, and so far this seems to be an outlier solution. Therefore, the forecast keeps Thanksgiving dry with temperatures slightly below normal.
  3. CAPE
    There is a fairly persistent indication(I won't say signal) on the ensembles in the LR for a wave tracking to our south with cold air in place. This varies from run to run ofc. The 27th -30th seems to be the window. Verbatim on the 0z EPS this would be a light snow, mostly falling to our south over S VA/NC.
  4. CAPE
    Remains to be seen if anything materializes during this period, but the advertised h5 look is pretty damn nice. Rather see it a month later though.
  5. CAPE
    Da hell is going in in here? Been busy but not much has changed imo. The period around the 28th still offers some potential for wintry weather, esp for climo favored areas.
  6. CAPE
    A blend of ens guidance over the past few days has suggested highs in the 40s on Thanksgiving, then somewhat colder for the days to follow. Not sure I see anything different right now, but it is still a ways off and with the pattern in transition there are plenty of moving pieces. A lot depends on the interaction between the amplifying EPO ridge, the building heights in the NA, and the TPV lobe.
  7. CAPE
    KC was a winner last night. With Bengals falling to 5-5, losing Burrow for at least a couple games, and the Andrews injury, they are (once again) clearly in the driver's seat.
  8. CAPE
    Losing Andrews is a big blow to any SB aspirations imo. He is that valuable. Always money, and Lamar's security blanket. Is what it is though. That style of tackling needs to be looked at, but in today's NFL it's already hard enough for defenders to make 'clean' hits and tackles.
  9. CAPE
    Some cold Nov rain would make me happy. Dust bowl out there.
  10. CAPE
    Looks like it will be chilly for a spell. The pretty colors in the 'right places' on guidance is nice to see. Climo rules. It isnt early Feb.
  11. CAPE
    There was a similar post in that thread a few days ago and the RR-signal went out. He rarely misses.
  12. CAPE
    Awesome. I bet you were ready given all the discussion about atmospheric blocking and ENSO on this forum. That pic is a composite from Dec 1 to Feb 15 iirc, during the epic 2009-10 season ofc.
  13. CAPE
    The 0z EPS looks quite active around the 28th too. When I made the original posts early this morning that run had not completed yet.
  14. CAPE
    SPV is forecast to be somewhat perturbed going forward. Can see a nice stretch and on the temp anomaly panel it looks a bit toasty. Forecast strength and position of the SPV at 10 and 50 mb, along with TPV locations at h5-
  15. CAPE
    GEPS has it too- a bit further south.
  16. CAPE
    Nice signal on the 0z GEFS with a discrete shortwave that tracks NE to the MA coast on the 28th.
  17. CAPE
    Don't forget the -h5 height anomalies across the mid south/SE up into the MA. Classic Nino.
  18. CAPE
    A bit silly but just for fun. The latest Euro Weeklies @h5 for Xmas into New Years.
  19. CAPE
    The ens mean ofc has a stronger signal for frozen(albeit still modest) than the previous 2 runs where the op snowed on us. This upcoming period is good practice if nothing else. We gonna be busy this winter.
  20. CAPE
    HH GFS is just a bit different for the 28th lol. Doesn't look to be 3 op runs in a row with snow.
  21. CAPE
    A model based on collecting a ton of data from satellites combined with AI/machine learning
  22. CAPE
    Spire lookin good
  23. CAPE
    Faint signal on the GEFS for the 28th. A long way off, but the 26th seems to be the beginning of the window of interest based on current guidance. Much of the heavier precip is along the SE coast and offshore on the mean from the 26th- 29th.
  24. CAPE
    Canadian has the ridge bridge. Impressive -NAO.
  25. CAPE
    That would be a wet Thanksgiving eve.
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