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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    A tenth here. Its pretty darn dry. We should see the Nino STJ start to juice things up in the next few weeks.
  2. CAPE
    High of 55 here. Currently 50. temps should drop quickly this evening with barely a breeze and a mostly clear sky. Could be a bit more in the way of clouds later. Might get near freezing here, but I doubt lower than that. Tomorrow night should be colder.
  3. CAPE
    36
  4. CAPE
    There is a tiny, sporadic signal on the means suggesting some flakes could fly during that period. Good bet for the western ridge with cold upslope flow in the wake of an early week storm. EPS is less bullish on a cold Turkey day.
  5. CAPE
    Over multiple runs on the 3 ensemble means, it appears the N Pacific is reshuffling into a -EPO/neutral-ish PNA look. I wouldn't mind if that pattern locks in. On the Atlantic side, it looks like any ridging in the NAO domain will be transient in nature heading into December. Something to keep any eye on, but for now the AO/NAO looks to remain close to neutral.
  6. CAPE
    EPS has been trending towards a nice high latitude look in the LR over the past few runs.
  7. CAPE
    Check out my profile pic. Pretty close.
  8. CAPE
    Admittedly pretty fun to look at at HH, with a bit of weed. Totally weenie tho.
  9. CAPE
    Here is one on mine. Funny read. Replies include one from DT lol. These dudes throw around terms/acronyms like 'downwelling kelvin waves' and WWB left and right, but its unclear if they truly understand the complexities/ ramifications of any of it. My guess is mostly no. Hyperbolic for the clicks is the game. Comical.
  10. CAPE
    The advertised pattern for the end of the month into the beginning of Dec is one we would love to see more of going forward. Verbatim there will probably be some snow for the western highlands, and not out of the question that places just west of the Fall line see a bit of snow during this period. Looks seasonably chilly at the very least.
  11. CAPE
    It's solid. Always easy to find too.
  12. CAPE
    Well there is some disagreement on the pattern progression. EPS keeps us on the mild side, while the GEPS is more like the GEFS but not as cold for the east. That said, we always know what he is gonna push.
  13. CAPE
    Seeing that TPV fall apart is a good sign. The last thing we want at this juncture is a strong, consolidated SPV, especially with a reflection at h5 in that location.
  14. CAPE
    Remains to be seen how exactly the pattern evolves beyond mid month. As the strong TPV north of AK breaks down, the latest GEFS run digs a trough further east over the Aleutians, with a downstream EPO ridge developing in a better spot. That places a trough in the central US that would progress eastward bringing a cold airmass for the end of the month.
  15. CAPE
    Upstream is clearly important regardless of the strength/persistence of any NA blocking. More so these days. We torched last year during that blocking episode because of a SER induced by a deep US western trough, itself induced by an impressive Aleutian ridge, courtesy of La Nina.
  16. CAPE
    This would be a pretty good look at range (a month later) if it persisted over multiple ens runs.
  17. CAPE
    Probably. While the upper ridge in the NAO space is there on that run, it's impotent as advertised, and it will probably be completely gone at 0z. Let me see it persist over multiple runs and on the means. Sometimes we see heights rise in the NAO domain briefly, but need perfect timing with a wave. What I like to see- and is most useful esp in a Nino- is a sustained blocking pattern(dipole) where we just wait for a legit wave to track underneath. Also snow chances suck regardless because it is November.
  18. CAPE
    To me, it means not useful/ not a sustained atmospheric blocking pattern. A transient -NAO is a crapshoot at best for our purposes. An actual(and more useful) sustained negative NAO is difficult to identify from a random op run or 2. A true NA blocking pattern is usually something that becomes evident over multiple ens runs.
  19. CAPE
    Thought he was more semi-retired. He is a legend in local forecasting. There surely is work for him if/when he wants it. His contributions are always value adding.
  20. CAPE
    It's bootleg and couples with an amplifying anomalous eastern US upper ridge, as a deep trough digs out west. Same thing we saw multiple times last winter. Just another random GFS op run though.
  21. CAPE
    Sipping on a 2022 BCBS for HH. So nice.
  22. CAPE
    That's 40 days away. Not a chance in hell these extended products have a clue what the NAO domain will actually look like. More likely the Pacific will be somewhat close to reality- looks Nino-ish. That said, I agree with you. NA blocking hasn't produced much here lately. Cross polar flow with advancing cold and a well timed wave along the thermal boundary has.
  23. CAPE
    The article with numbers is posted in the November LR thread.
  24. CAPE
  25. CAPE
    I think maybe too much attention is paid to the SST anomalies in attempting to characterize ENSO events, instead of the actual temperatures. Look at where the highest SSTs are, and that aligns with the location of strongest forcing- albeit relatively weak.
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