CAPE

I see a -AO, -NAO, and a ridge over AK. Pretty damn good HL look.

Why the fuck is channel 13/CBS Baltimore making us watch the shitty Commanders play the hapless Jets instead of carrying the Browns-Texans game? Unbelievable.

There is a definite trend in recent model cycles for more significant NS energy to dig southward and deepen as the EPO ridge amplifies. This has a couple potential impacts on our period of interest- it brings colder air southward, and it interacts with the waves tracking across the southern US. Depending on the timing, this could mean damping or 'squashing' waves, or possibly phasing with- which could be a good outcome if it happens at the right time. Tracking for early Jan has gotten a bit more interesting lol.

Don't know why but this post reminded me of this epically funny South Park Christmas episode.

Impressive -NAO towards the end of the 6z GEFS. The less favorable look on the Pacific side should be brief. Already looks like the Aleutian low is redeveloping with a bit of a ridge building out in front.

That low moves into the 50-50 region, and now seeing hints of NS interaction/possible phase for wave on the 4th- 5th.

There is stronger shortwave energy on the GEFS for Jan 2. Temps look pretty marginal for this period though.

The 6z GFS gets some snow into your hood. The airmass sucks unless right underneath that closed low, and even then some elevation is required. If it takes a track similar to the 6z GFS, the western highlands are going to maximize the potential.

The signal is still there on the ens means, but notably weaker on the 0z GEFS.

0z Euro partially phases 3 pieces of energy under an anticyclonic wave break, popping a surface low that scoots eastward just to our SE around the 2nd. Verbatim a few inches of snow for southern VA. Same timeframe as the GFS clipper. 6z GFS is trying but just not cold enough for the lowlands. Develops a coastal low but too far offshore. Definitely something to keep an eye on- could be a sneaky threat for this window.

Likewise WW. I am a little high rn, but I won't talk politics. It has no place here.

Wait, so I can't mention weed while poring over a HH run?

Another acceptable ens run for the 6-7th window.

Law of averages. They were due.

Location dependent. You have a place in Canaan right?

lol EJ liking Ji's post.

Guess you will just have to wait to find out, with the next 5 days in the 50s.

As a Ravens fan I probably should be cheering for the Steelers here. I JUST CANT DO IT. Come on Bengals.

Torch!!

Paying less attention to the colors and more to the height contours is a good rule of thumb to glean the general idea from an overly smoothed seasonal model. I know you know this. Shame on you for trolling the panic stricken. Shame on me for coming in here and being rational and unemotional.

My Christmas wish is to never see a day 10+ snow map in a Med/LR thread ever again. Will it come true?

There are currently discrete(proper spelling) threats on the ens means though. Not all about the damn snow maps.

Early Jan is get on the board time with a moderate event or 2. Late Jan into mid Feb might be KU time, given strong Nino, QBO phase, weak SPV, and pretty much all extended guidance consistently depicting a period of sustained NA blocking.

Pretty classic looks on the means for the 6-7th. Although there won't be a sustained block in place, the timing looks good with predecessor waves lowering heights in the 50-50 region and building h5 heights near GL overtop. That should place surface HP in a favorable position that allows a northerly flow into a developing storm tracking northward along the east coast. The -EPO/TPV combo will have cooled central/eastern Canada to close to normal temps, so cold enough air for snow(given the track) should be available. Game on baby.

Nice signal on the EPS for the 7th. HP ridging south from eastern Canada with LP off the Maritimes, LP along the Gulf states with moisture streaming northeastward.