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The extended products still suggest the NE PAC trough retros back over the Aleutians with an EPO ridge for early Jan, but they have been doing that for awhile now. There are also hints of improvement in the NA. My guess is we will see general improvement in the Pacific over the next couple weeks, and increasing chances of -NAO episodes mid Jan forward.
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End of the EPS showing some improvement in the HL with the AO and EPO around neutral along with a +PNA. NA needs work but that is a serviceable look and might get some colder air working southward into central Canada with time.
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I think we agree, we will see -NAO episodes but probably not sustained(nothing like 2009-10), and more of the character of 2016- although hopefully sooner and a bit more frequent in late winter.
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He is a troll, and a perpetual dick. Well duh. An extended Pac jet, with an equatorward shift, is a hallmark of an El Nino. Ofc he makes posts like this to claim a torch is imminent. Jet extensions with an exit region closer to the US west coast also happen to favor a +PNA, but more so when the jet is shifted poleward. So an El Nino winter can feature both periods of +/-PNA, or be predominantly one phase or another in a given season depending on the exact character/strength of the event. The strength and position of the NE PAC vortex determines to a large extent how much cold air is available in Canada/US during a Nino, and so other factors such as AO/NAO phase are paramount in determining whether or not we have a colder/snowy outcome. But yes, let's make it all about the NPJ, which is an ever present influence on the downstream pattern, regardless of ENSO state, especially during the winter.
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That's a decent look, not awful by any means. +PNA, but the AO/NAO/EPO are all positive. What's most important is where the pattern goes from there.
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Lets see what the ens mean looks like at the end of the run today. Hell of a look.
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6z GEFS didn't really follow up with the colder look. Barely a hint of a coastal low for that period and NA looks more like previous runs. More watching.
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Mean suggests some frozen for this window. Biggest difference on the 0z run is some improvement in the NA. The op run has been hinting at heights increasing in the NAO domain via wave breaking. Something to keep an eye on over the next several runs, and need to see it on the EPS.
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yeah lookin better.
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I'll chill for a bit like the NPAC jet apparently needs to do. Never mind that an active/extended PAC jet is totally Nino. Might be bad in the new regime? Maybe Nina then.
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Better Pac look, not as good in the NA on the latest run. On a super LR smoothed mean where we can only glean the general idea, a wash.
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The extended products are somewhat useful for a week or so beyond the end of the ens runs imo. I don't hate this look at all for the first week of Jan. There is a mechanism to deliver some cold air with a more favorable Aleutian low position/-EPO. Now is it real? Who knows.
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Not sure what 'chill' means. I would assume retracted. This is extended- This is retracted- Ofc it's not this simple. The strength and position of the Aleutian low is influenced by other factors. There is a TPV lobe positioned such that it dumps energy into that vortex, generally keeping it deeper/further east than ideal for our purposes.
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Seems there are some misconceptions about the Pacific jet, extensions/retractions, ENSO... and what to 'root' for. This might be a good read for some. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-jet-stream-and-el-nino
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Light coating on the grass and cars. Snowed pretty hard on the drive in with a notable coating all the way to the north side of Easton.
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Steady light to moderate snow but probably gonna take a death band to get stickage. The more impressive returns are off to the east now. Temp 34.
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Some flakes mixed in here now. Temp down to 36. Just over 2" of rain.
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Just broke an inch for the day. Radar actually looks pretty good now. Most guidance had 2"+ here so probably won't get there.
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Deluge here now. Overall this has underperformed. Much of the day was rain free or just light rain. Even saw a peek of sun. Temp is 62.
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The NE PAC trough is too dominant right now. That feature is a fixture in a Nino but we don't want it to be a monster vortex parked in the GoA. Right now there is TPV energy feeding into it, but all the extended products still indicate some weakening and retrograding towards the Aleutians into early Jan, with improvement in the PNA/EPO domains. Some improvement in the NA would also be really helpful. We watch and wait.
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Great win. Showed they aren't just frontrunners. That would have been a horrific loss, and their third at home.
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I don't hate him at all. He is just infuriating at times, in key moments, and he never learns.
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Thank you thank you thank you Mr Wallace. Gutsy performance by Lamar and the offense. The defense is soo overrated.
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He truly is a dope.
