CAPE

Always a good bet given recent history, and with nothing of significance to suggest anything different. That being said, in these parts all we need is a couple weeks with a favorable pattern within an overall period of suckage to have a memorable winter.

CFS has backed off on the strength of the Nina over the last week. Close to neutral in Feb now.

Speculation mostly at this juncture, but it's time. Days will be getting shorter going forward. Ji is slipping.

This is a major problem across the league. The use of data analytics, with measurement of and emphasis on velocity and spin rate etc. seems partly to blame. Rather than going by 'feel' and natural grip/motion/release to develop a repertoire, this generation of pitchers attempts to 'synthesize' it based on specific desired outcomes.

Look at the advertised position of the surface high in the western Atlantic and the low/mid level flow and temps. The worst of the heat for the MA will be late week into the weekend.

600 dam lol Baltimore and Philly will be pushing 100 by the end of the week.

Low of 57 this morning. One more nice day before the heat dome begins to build. Tomorrow shouldn't be too bad but heat and humidity will be on the increase beyond.

0.28" from a garden variety thundershower overnight

80/50 Enjoy the hell out of this while it lasts. Having a beer then going outside to plant some flowers.

55. Feels great out there.

Mount Holly also mentioned the possibility for severe in their morning AFD- Convective details remain unclear at this time, but the medium range guidance continues to indicate potential for at least some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front Friday afternoon and evening. With the approaching trough, there will be at least modest shear and forcing for convection. These could also be sufficient enough for a severe threat as well, however the limiting factor for severe currently appears to be the less-than-impressive instability thanks to the poor mid-level lapse rates. In any case, we`ll need to keep a close eye on Friday`s heat and severe weather threats.

Yeah we gonna cook pretty good next week. With the flow around that High, dewpoints will be well into the 60s with a couple days in the low 70s maybe.

The 0z Euro has an even more pronounced dig to the shortwave energy and even develops a bit of a surface low off the MA coast.

The 0z GFS digs the h5 energy a bit further south than previous runs and doesn't mix out the higher dewpoints as quickly, resulting in an increase in showers/storms along the front Friday evening.

Got in on one overnight. Brief downpour produced a meager 0.13". Looked better on radar to my south, as usual lately.

Less than a quarter inch here for the month, and doesn't appear there will be any significant rain over the next week. Abnormally dry showing up. Those areas will be expanding. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MD

Super nice outside. 74 with a DP of 50, and breezy. Low of 59 this morning.

.01" here. Getting pretty damn dry. Grass doing its usual thing this time of year.

DFH WWS + Sativa for Friday HH. I'm not going anywhere.

0.15" Looking at radar it will be done in about 5 mins. Maybe a bit more later, but probably not gonna make the 1/2- 3/4" that was forecast yesterday.

Agreed. Ninas have been better here overall since 2016, save for the third in the trifecta the winter before last, which was historically bad for all the major cities/burbs from Richmond to NYC.

That's inevitable. I was talking about a Nina.

I'll roll with it over here.

In three weeks the days begin to get shorter, as we head towards winter. It will be a Nina.