CAPE

High of 78 here.

The 6z GFS depiction early next week would work for some decent and more widespread rain across the area. Instead of the vorticity lobes passing to our north and focusing the forcing in PA and northward, some upper level energy digs just to our south and puts our area in a better spot for precip.

Looks like some chances here and there over the next week for parts of the region, but probably not a widespread significant event. There will be haves and have nots. It's that time of year though.

Ended up with 0.21" total.

Getting pretty close here. Need some significant rain in the next week, or I will be dumping gallons of water into the soil. Grass will be toast anyway regardless, but all the plants are a pretty big investment.

.08" Last chance coming across the bay over the next hour per radar. A damn quarter inch would salvage something.

Looks like 3"+ per radar estimates.

I was up your way over the weekend and it is super dry there. Grass looked brown and dormant.

Rain shields up here. Next to nothing. Places a few miles to my west got clobbered. Same over towards DE. Oh well.

The STJ is generally weak during summer- just don't have the temp gradient that exists in winter. The midlatitudes get pretty hot, esp over land masses. The emerging Nino plus lowering sun angle moving into Fall and winter should jack up the southern stream. Juiced up flow and rain chances for our region in summer usually come courtesy of HP in the western Atlantic, combined with cold fronts that manage to press far enough southeastward.

It gets no credit now if we whiff again. WPC will be wetter next update

Try this one if you haven't. So good and versatile. I often add a tad to certain fruity IPAs to give some complexity. A little in RAR Nanticoke Nectar kicks it up and adds interest.

they GFS

87

They generally seem to love the GFS. The other globals have been consistently wetter.

Monday into Monday night still looks good for showers and a few t-storms on guidance. Who cares if more rain falls well SW/NE, as there is a high probability for some widespread rains through our region. A half inch to an inch is a major win at this point. We beggars.

At least some places are getting something other than smoke. Severe Thunderstorm Warning DEC005-081645- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0062.230608T1602Z-230608T1645Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1202 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Sussex County in southern Delaware... * Until 1245 PM EDT. * At 1201 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Sharptown, or 11 miles southeast of Hurlock, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

Took this from work this morning.

It means not a typical fair weather pattern associated with HP. There will be clouds/chances of precip.

Missed the earlier round of showers, but just had a nice heavy downpour. Picked up a quick tenth. Still a few cells to the NW headed in this general direction. Maybe a little more to come.

Gonna be close but no cigar here with the storms moving through. Will pass just to my east.

Throw in a few major volcanic eruptions..

Who cares about a sustained -NAO in June and July.

EPS and GEPS look especially promising for early next week.

low of 51 here