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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Exactly what he is doing. Even by the numbers its a -NAO. Maybe he is arguing that the mechanism by which it forms won't result in a sustained blocking event. I could buy that.
  2. CAPE
    Yeah its the same as the extended runs now on the GEFS.
  3. CAPE
    It used to be the shit. Lately I am not sure, esp for the coastal plain. Seems over here we do better with -EPO/cross polar flow. Doesn't always work out so well for the Fall line points west though.
  4. CAPE
    Ok now you are kind of ruining it.
  5. CAPE
    It is on the ens mean.
  6. CAPE
    The oddity is the trajectory of the low track . It's essentially an Albert Clipper. Not so common in early Dec. EJ is correct though. 50-50 low. HP to the west over the GLs- results in a nice feed of cold from the north into the storm. -NAO forces the low to track to our south.
  7. CAPE
    Pretty good post from you. More please.
  8. CAPE
    Just for fun, the Black Friday edition of the Euro Weeklies for late Dec, centered on Xmas.
  9. CAPE
    No rock throwing lol. Sounds impressive. Probably a bit too much detail on the analysis for 10 days out though.
  10. CAPE
    This has been a pretty persistent theme on the ens guidance for around the 5th- an OV low/coastal transfer. EPS suggests some snow for us this run.
  11. CAPE
    The exact position/strength of the NE Pac(Aleutian) low is equally important to the NA state(arguably more so), compared to a just a couple decades ago. Encouraging to see the guidance retrograding it further west and popping a PNA ridge in the long range. Last thing we want is that feature parking in the GoA or worse.
  12. CAPE
    Sea effect snow season has begun in NW Japan. Watch it pile up over the next 3 months.
  13. CAPE
    This would be a good sign heading into early winter.
  14. CAPE
    If the trends continue we might see legit below avg temps by Dec 10th.
  15. CAPE
    All 3 ensemble means have the PNA trending positive by December 7th now.
  16. CAPE
    The general idea on the latest ensemble runs is the primary storm track remains to our northwest through about December 3. Beyond that there are indications of low pressure development along/off the MA coast. We shouldn't expect to see guidance lock in on anything specific at this range, but over multiple runs there are hints from Dec 4 onward. With an active southern jet there should be chances. The advertised pattern looks seasonably chilly for the east, but not especially cold.
  17. CAPE
    These 3 panels should give everyone here a good feeling with winter a week away.
  18. CAPE
    EPS > GEFS
  19. CAPE
    EPS is colder than the GEFS for that period.
  20. CAPE
    GEFS likes the 5th for a storm. As is typical, the mean follows the op with an OV low and coastal transfer. Verbatim it's a bit warm. The 6z run had a similar evolution for that timeframe. The GoA low would be the primary issue for this period. Subject to change though this far out.
  21. CAPE
    Improvement on the GEFS over the last few model cycles. The 0z run has +h5 heights centered over Baffin, and the Pacific look is somewhat better. The exact MJO progression is likely the biggest driver of the Pacific pattern for the early/mid Dec period. The latest runs are generally weaker in phase 3, and take it into the COD before/just as it gets into phase 4.
  22. CAPE
    ^The EPS continues to indicate a much improved look in the NAO domain over the last few runs for that period. It has gone from a flat central Canada ridge- more of a Pacific puke mild look- to a pretty impressive -NAO for the first week of Dec. Still not a very a cold look with that GoA trough. My guess is the less favorable Pac will be temporary. GEPS has a ridge popping over AK towards the end of its run.
  23. CAPE
    He is focusing too much on the anomalies(pretty colors) instead of the height lines. On LR tools it's the 'general idea'. Some get it, some don't.
  24. CAPE
    lmao no chance. you do you dude. we all contribute in our own way.
  25. CAPE
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