Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates     

  1. Today
  2. Hoosier

    April 27-28 Snow Potential

    Was looking at some late season snows in the last few days of April or later and to say that climo is hostile for accumulating snow south of about the WI-IL border is an understatement. Rockford doesn't have a 2" calendar day snow after April 23 and there are very few 1" snows after that day.
  3. Sounds good... what did you think of the Euro and does the HRDPS have any value for severe weather? @losetoa6 mentioned both in the main disco thread ETA: Good call on the MRGL risk
  4. Hoosier

    April 27-28 Snow Potential

    LOT might put out an advisory like 2 days in advance if models come into agreement with this.
  5. Tonight's NAM3 still shows a strongly-forced squall line along the front later Friday. Instability and deep-layer shear are modest, but it's probably sufficient as currently progged to warrant a MRGL risk when the new Day 2 SPC outlook is issued in a few hours. I still think that we could eventually end up as a SLGT, depending on how much heating occurs.
  6. rochesterdave

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Yeah. With lay-overs it’s crazy. It took me 18 hrs once on the way there. I recommend the red eye or an overnight layover in SF or Seattle. Great hotels in Hawaii. For 300/night you can be a high roller. I’m a real hotel snob and Maui doesn’t disappoint. I’m sure the Big Island is similar. The whales and dolphins are incredible too. The whales will have migrated north by now but you can snorkel in that sapphire blue water- it’ll cleanse your soul. I like the set up for Sunday. The timing stinks. Middle of the day. We can still get pasted. That’d be fun and maybe kick down some of the allergens floating around. I’m rambling.
  7. No one wants to jinx it given the past few years...
  8. Dr. Dews

    April 2019 Discussion II

    It's basically a crisp September night. 50.3
  9. Dr. Dews

    April 2019 Discussion II

    GIDLT
  10. canderson

    Severe weather event for April 24-25

    Yea they’re good. They’re on the WO/East Mountain/ border essentially
  11. btcs31

    April 27-28 Snow Potential

    But why on a weekend...? I could care less if we get 35F and rain on a Tuesday in May, but please give me dry average temps Fri, Sat, Sun this time of year.
  12. cstrunk

    Severe weather event for April 24-25

    That area of rotation dissipated as it moved northeast, and another area of decent rotation formed without a tornado warning near Diana, TX. I called my friend to let them know, but there was no tornado warning. He said it was quite windy and they had lost power, so I told them to hang tight for 10 minutes or so in their closet. No other incident that I'm aware of and it looks like the rotation has weakened.
  13. ineedsnow

    April 2019 Discussion II

    Windows open fan on.. perfect sleeping weather
  14. DeltaT13

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I was hoping youd stop in for this last gasp of winter. I think Hawaii is "only" about 12, (haha not that big of a difference I guess).
  15. rochesterdave

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I f’ing love Hawaii. I’ve only been to Maui but it’s heaven on earth. Prices are good. Food is great. The Ocean there is phenomenal! Just that 16 hr plane ride. Ouch
  16. rochesterdave

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I’m back.
  17. kdxken

    April 2019 Discussion II

  18. TauntonBlizzard2013

    Heavy heavy lawn thread 2019

    That’s a lot of loam. I’ll be doing my whole yard with about 25... granted it’s only a quarter acre lot... but still
  19. NTXYankee

    April 27-28 Snow Potential

    Yuck. You could not pay me enough to live that far north, I think Columbus winters are long.
  20. donsutherland1

    April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    Fair weather will hold for another day in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. However, a system will likely bring showers and perhaps some thundershowers Friday into Saturday. At present, most of the New York City area should see 0.25"-0.75" rain with some locally higher amounts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around April 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.95°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist into the first week in May in Region 3.4. The SOI was -9.30 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.056. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 99%. There is also an implied 74% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 52% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record. The 5 Warmest April Mean Temperatures were as follows: 1. 57.9°, 2010 2. 56.9°, 1941 3. 56.2°, 1981 4. 56.1°, 1921, 2002 5. 55.9°, 1969 On April 23, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.470 (RMM). The amplitude was higher than the April 22-adjusted figure of 2.079. The amplitude is the highest on record for Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. Since 1974, there were four cases when the MJO reached an amplitude of 1.750 or above during Phase 2 during the April 20-30 period. The mean May 1-10 temperature was 58.8° vs. the 1981-2018 average of 60.2°. 75% of those cases were cooler than the 1981-2018 average. However, during May cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above for the month, the May 1-10 temperature averaged 60.8°. Therefore, it is likely that the first 10 days of May will probably wind up with a mean temperature of 59.2°-61.2°. Finally, the 12z ECMWF suggests the possibility of some snow Saturday night or Sunday in Chicago. To date, Chicago has seen 47.0" snow for the 2018-19 season, which is 10.7" above normal.
  21. canderson

    Severe weather event for April 24-25

    Parents near Longview in a closet right now, TOR warning and they heard the low rumble sound.
  22. OrdIowPitMsp

    April 27-28 Snow Potential

    I was about to post in the winter 2018/19 grade thread but I think I’ll keep that on hold thru the weekend......
  23. IWXwx

    April 2019 Discussion

    I think Stebo's right. The same guy that plants palm trees in Wisconsin.
  24. alex

    April 2019 Discussion II

    Lol same here. Raw day. 38 and drizzly. Yuck
  25. Felt a twinge if hope reviewing models today
  26. Lava Rock

    April 2019 Discussion II

    Windows closed. Woodstove cooking .
  1. Load more activity
×