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January Banter


Isopycnic

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I agree Cold Rain, Bastardi drives me crazy sometimes but he is one of the best mets out there IMO. He is vague about places (except the NE which is his baby) because he is forecasting for the whole country and trying to discern the pattern and forecast accordingly. I have listened to or followed Joe since the 80's and he has a very good track record of being right and owns up to it when he is not. One thing for sure is he is not afraid to put his forecast out there ahead of time for all to see and not the day before or after the fact as The Weather Channel and others do.

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Agree Michael. 

How many of you out there can do a better job than Bastardi? He probably has more weather knowledge than 100 of us put together. It's easy to sit back and play arm-chair quarterback, but I don't see anyone else here making money at it. 

 

I selectively include JB's Tweets on my FB page regarding his long to medium range stuff. People love reading it, and so far, he's been pretty correct this winter. 

 

No one should rely on any one source for weather information anyway. That's why I make a new blog post or post on FB, I try to pull information from as many reliable sources that I can find. Forecasting is science, but to be real good at it is an art. 

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Agree Michael.

How many of you out there can do a better job than Bastardi? He probably has more weather knowledge than 100 of us put together. It's easy to sit back and play arm-chair quarterback, but I don't see anyone else here making money at it.

I selectively include JB's Tweets on my FB page regarding his long to medium range stuff. People love reading it, and so far, he's been pretty correct this winter.

No one should rely on any one source for weather information anyway. That's why I make a new blog post or post on FB, I try to pull information from as many reliable sources that I can find. Forecasting is science, but to be real good at it is an art.

Joe aleo has been showing the 10hpa warming over Asia and pushing poleward towards north America. Pretty close to the warming event from last year at this time only a week behind.

As far as jb. Its pretty simple weatherbell seems to be growing, not going out of business. They must be putting out some good long range forecast out to their energy clients. As a business owner myself. Its really simple, your product will sell if its good. Im willing to bet the money they take in from mid Atlantic weenies keeps the lights on. Its the big energy clients that bring in the cheese.

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The thing I noticed here over the years is JB is often misquoted.  It was really more prevalent a couple of years ago than it is now. What normally happened is that JB would speculate about the pattern as only he can.  Ducks on the pond, vodka cold, big dog, etc.  He would say something like, "The ducks are on the pond. If X happens and Y slides in underneath, it is possible that in 10 days the big dog will move south and the east will be feeling vodka cold."

 

Somehow, in the process of that statement being brought to AmWx, the "if" and "and" portion was often left out and JB was said to have guaranteed vodka cold in the east.  From that point it took on a life of its own.

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I agree Cold Rain, Bastardi drives me crazy sometimes but he is one of the best mets out there IMO. He is vague about places (except the NE which is his baby) because he is forecasting for the whole country and trying to discern the pattern and forecast accordingly. I have listened to or followed Joe since the 80's and he has a very good track record of being right and owns up to it when he is not. One thing for sure is he is not afraid to put his forecast out there ahead of time for all to see and not the day before or after the fact as The Weather Channel and others do.

Agree 100% I been following him since the early 80's also. If you don't like JB then why________ do you follow him is my question??? Then get on here a trash him! I don't get it?  Of course the NE is his baby lot more subscribers and pays the bills, I'm sure anyone on here would do the same if it paid your bills! (Biased NE)  if that's were most of your subscribers are from.

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The thing I noticed here over the years is JB is often misquoted. It was really more prevalent a couple of years ago than it is now. What normally happened is that JB would speculate about the pattern as only he can. Ducks on the pond, vodka cold, big dog, etc. He would say something like, "The ducks are on the pond. If X happens and Y slides in underneath, it is possible that in 10 days the big dog will move south and the east will be feeling vodka cold."

Somehow, in the process of that statement being brought to AmWx, the "if" and "and" portion was often left out and JB was said to have guaranteed vodka cold in the east. From that point it took on a life of its own.

Great post this is very true. Ji was a perfect example of this yesterday.
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The thing I noticed here over the years is JB is often misquoted.  It was really more prevalent a couple of years ago than it is now. What normally happened is that JB would speculate about the pattern as only he can.  Ducks on the pond, vodka cold, big dog, etc.  He would say something like, "The ducks are on the pond. If X happens and Y slides in underneath, it is possible that in 10 days the big dog will move south and the east will be feeling vodka cold."

 

Somehow, in the process of that statement being brought to AmWx, the "if" and "and" portion was often left out and JB was said to have guaranteed vodka cold in the east.  From that point it took on a life of its own.

Good post that's how it happens!!

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if you dont want my posting just say so.....i did NOT call any individual biased as YOU are falsely claiming, i DID comment that some here are biased and that is simple FACT.

I asked...... WHO ARE YOU CALLING BIASED. Go back and READ WHAT WAS WRITTEN. Since only myself and Larry, to this point, have given our opposing views I have asked for you to CLARIFY your statement by naming those WHO YOU THINK IS BIASED.  Where did I say I didn't want you posting?  Nowhere....but if you are going to make statements like this, then you need to back up what you are saying and keep the religious quotes to the proper place.

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CR.....It's all about the bottom dollar. His playground has always been the MA/NE and he spins everything to suit his needs. Does he have a lot of people that pay for his forecast? Yes....but remember....people also made the man who came up with the pet rock a fortune and these are the same people that follow many weenies on twitter and fb too. It's not that he's a genius or anything, but he does have an excellent marketing crew. Give the people what they want and they will follow.....nobody said the human race was smart, but they sure are gullible :P

 

BTW.....I don't really pay attention to anyone(pro forecaster/meteorologist/etc) that twists things to fit what they are trying to sell. ;)

 

 

It sounds like you're saying that because a lot of folks pay for his thoughts because he looks for the cold and snowy patterns.  He knows people like information in that direction, so he capitalizes by giving that to them.  I don't want to put words in your mouth, so if I'm not interpreting correctly, let me know.  If I am, then I can definitely see that. :)

 

A lot of folks on here tend to want to discuss the cold potential and not the warm potential (and that might be what Bill means when he's saying many are biased).  I know I do.  I'd rather spend all winter looking for the potential for cold and snow (not calling for cold and snow -- those are two different things) than getting excited over the imminent warm-up to 70 degrees.  Why?  Because I'm a weenie maybe.  Or because cold and snow are two reasons why I really love weather and they're what I want to see in the winter.  Maybe that's why people pay for JB...because he looks for ways it can get cold and snow and that's what many, like me, are interested in, although I'm unwilling to pay for that info/commentary.  I dunno.

 

JB is a businessman and knows where his bread is buttered.  But from an actual forecasting standpoint, I don't know if he's a bad forecaster.  If you don't agree with always looking for cold, then you have a legitimate gripe with him.  He's pretty strong in marketing/hyping/discussing/whatever that potential all throughout the winter, which many people, including me, like to hear.  But liking to hear about it and then relying on it as a forecast are two different things, and hopefully, people recognize the difference.

 

Burns,

 

I didn't quote it, but your post is spot on.  That happens a lot.  Whether someone summarizing his thoughts misinterprets what he posts and then posts their misinterpretation or whether they post the correct ideas and it takes on a life of its own, as you said, that's very frequently an issue and I think that is where a lot of animosity flows from.

 

But again, I haven't seen anything to make me think he's a bad forecaster.

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I asked...... WHO ARE YOU CALLING BIASED. Go back and READ WHAT WAS WRITTEN. Since only myself and Larry, to this point, have given our opposing views I have asked for you to CLARIFY your statement by naming those WHO YOU THINK IS BIASED.  Where did I say I didn't want you posting?  Nowhere....but if you are going to make statements like this, then you need to back up what you are saying and keep the religious quotes to the proper place.

 

I don't think we're disagreeing on the same thing...we're just agreeing on two different things. :) :headspin:

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I just can't wait for the end of Feb to get here and we are snowless , then here will come all the" best snows in March "comments start flying around! They always come around when we get blanked all winter!

 

We have had one snow in March in central NC since 2000. We have had slightly more storms in December than February since then. January has been the big month. This is why I hate waiting. If we don't see anything in December or January, we most likiely won't see anything.

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I just can't wait for the end of Feb to get here and we are snowless , then here will come all the" best snows in March "comments start flying around! They always come around when we get blanked all winter!

 

I don't like March snow.  It melts too fast and it's too wet.  But it's better than April snow.  And it's better than no snow.  It would be best to get mid-January snow -- the kind that snows at temps in the mid 20s and accumulates to inches in the mid 20s and stays on the ground for days in the mid 20s.  But if we don't that, then March snow will do.  I'd take that over no snow at all.  It would be just fine in that case.  It would be nice to see fall and hear it as it hits the ground.  I like March snow.

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CR....you have it right :)  It has nothing to do with him being good or bad. Heck....look at glen burns or others like him  :lol:  It all comes down to being a "salesman" in his respective area and I just don't like any "salesman" approach to anything. at. all.  I would rather do all the research myself and come to my own conclusions as opposed to some salesman telling me what I need or want. 

 

correct about my comment.....it was a general comment not directed at any individual acknowledging the OBVIOUS BIAS that many here have.....

If it's so OBVIOUS....then you should have no problem stating WHO YOU THINK THESE INDIVIDUALS ARE

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I don't like March snow.  It melts too fast and it's too wet.  But it's better than April snow.  And it's better than no snow.  It would be best to get mid-January snow -- the kind that snows at temps in the mid 20s and accumulates to inches in the mid 20s and stays on the ground for days in the mid 20s.  But if we don't that, then March snow will do.  I'd take that over no snow at all.  It would be just fine in that case.  It would be nice to see fall and hear it as it hits the ground.  I like March snow.

March snow tastes funny.

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i find it hilarious that biased folks are calling JB biased......remove the log from your own eye before worrying about a splinter in mine.

 

 

what is your problem.........i am not going to call out individuals, why are YOU trying to get something started here.

See what you posted above and I bolded it for you....again....since ONLY myself and Larry had disagreeing opinions you must mean that WE are the ones that are biased. In order to clarify, I asked the question WHO IS BIASED. Considering I couldn't give a rats azz what any paid for profit Met in a different region has to say it can't be me you are talking about, so maybe it's Larry and that in itself is laughable. Do not make these statements if you don't intend to back it up. 

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