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NNE Autumn 2013 Thread


MaineJayhawk

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Great long term discussion by Banacos...

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL

CONTINUE TO FEATURE COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBILITY OF A

SIGNIFICANT STORM IMPACTING THE NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND COLD WITH SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH

PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A WEAK

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY

NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE

CWA...ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN ZONES. COASTAL STORM IS TAKING

SHAPE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD OVER THE GULF COAST AND SLOWLY

TRACKING EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY WED

MORNING. ECMWF BRINGS THIS LOW ACROSS OUR SWEET SPOT...RIGHT OFF

THE COAST OF CAPE COD ON WED AFTERNOON. GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER

EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING THE LOW CENTER FURTHER OUT TO

SEA. THE ECMWF BRINGS UP POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS

VERMONT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOT OF THE

DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR...AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER

MENTIONED...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN

AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS AND A STRONG VORT/CLOSED LOW

INVOLVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CLOSER THAN THEY WERE THIS TIME

YESTERDAY...BUT STILL NOT EXACTLY IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING OR TRACK

OF LOW. PHASING EVENTS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT IT IS

WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DEEP GULF

MOISTURE...STRONG BAROCLINICITY AT 850 AND A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC

PATTERN. THESE INGREDIENTS MEAN THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR

SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY BRINGING THE FIRST

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE WINTER TO VERMONT...ESPECIALLY

EASTERN AND CENTRAL. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING THIS DEPARTING

LOW FOR THURSDAY...SO WILL HAVE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MORE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AT

THIS TIME FRIDAY LOOKS DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING

INTO THE AREA.

 

Lock it in. I will be traveling to Long Island that day.

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Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.07” L.E.

 

It was interesting to leave the house this morning to sleet, only to check the web cam later and find that it was snowing.  Eventually, 0.6” of snow fell on top of the 0.1” of sleet.  After the full liquid analysis, the snowboards caught 0.06” of liquid, and the rain gauge caught a total of 0.07”, with a bit of rain in there.  Even with the warming today, parts of the ground have held onto the white coating from earlier.  The point forecast for tonight calls for up to an inch here once temperatures cool.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Temperature: 35.1 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: Trace

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Can anyone give me a good guess as to what time these squalls will be coming through? My daughter is returning from the NEK tomorrow and it has me a little uneasy....thanks

 

LOCAL SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SNOW SQUALLS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AREA MOST IMPACTED WILL BE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING VISIBILITIES
AND SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.

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Can anyone give me a good guess as to what time these squalls will be coming through? My daughter is returning from the NEK tomorrow and it has me a little uneasy....thanks

 

LOCAL SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR

SNOW SQUALLS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. AREA MOST IMPACTED WILL BE NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE CENTRAL

AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF VERMONT WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW

COULD FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING VISIBILITIES

AND SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.

I haven't looked at their SSP much, but it looks like it lights up on their WRF beginning about 21z (4pm) tomorrow and it continues overnight.

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Event totals: 0.7” Snow/0.07” L.E.

It was interesting to leave the house this morning to sleet, only to check the web cam later and find that it was snowing. Eventually, 0.6” of snow fell on top of the 0.1” of sleet. After the full liquid analysis, the snowboards caught 0.06” of liquid, and the rain gauge caught a total of 0.07”, with a bit of rain in there. Even with the warming today, parts of the ground have held onto the white coating from earlier. The point forecast for tonight calls for up to an inch here once temperatures cool.

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Temperature: 35.1 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: Trace

J.Spin, so can you see tenths of an inch on your webcam? I remember you posting a photo of the measuring blocks last winter, but have you added tenths of an inch to that? If so, that's awesome!

I finished up with just shy of an inch of snow and when I melted down what fell in the larger cylinder, it came out to 0.12" of liquid. Still hanging on to a white coating this evening as it never really warmed up today...just 32-34F type stuff most of the afternoon/evening.

CAD doing its thing as it's 34F at MVL and MPV, with 32F further east at 1V4. Meanwhile it's 42F in BTV and 39F up at SLK.

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Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.16” L.E.

 

I know that the precipitation was starting to change over to frozen by 11:57 P.M. last night… because we were woken up by an incredible racket of sleet pounding the house.  It clearly wasn’t a full changeover to frozen by that point, since I saw some rain later.  And we indeed picked up another shot of liquid last night – I cleared the rain gauge at 6:00 P.M. yesterday, and there was another 0.09” of liquid this morning once everything was melted down.  In terms of snow, there was a couple of tenths on the boards this morning in the form of graupel balls and some flakes, and it comprised 0.01” of the overnight liquid.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 32.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: Trace

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J.Spin, so can you see tenths of an inch on your webcam? I remember you posting a photo of the measuring blocks last winter, but have you added tenths of an inch to that? If so, that's awesome!

 

Great question!  Indeed I can’t actually measure to tenths of an inch by eye, so here’s how the process works:  The increments on those diagonal blocks are calibrated to exactly two inches each, so knowing that, I can interpolate any measurements I need.  I just grab a screen shot of the web cam, open the image in Photoshop, measure the number of pixels representing two inches, measure the number of pixels of snow depth, and convert to inches of snowfall:

 

23NOV13A.jpg

 

Based on the above, I went with 0.6” for yesterday’s snowfall.  The resolution of the image doesn’t look all that impressive in the jpeg above, but since it’s an HD web cam you can get some decent accuracy and precision at the pixel level when you zoom in with Photoshop and measure it.  The process really isn’t as elaborate as the figure makes it look, since I have Excel all set up to do the calculations and rounding.  I don’t even take measurements off both blocks all the time (having two is nice for backup/reference/averaging), but I happened to check both this time.  I also stagger the distance of the blocks a bit as another layer of reference (hence the closer block with have more pixels per two-inch distance).  In general though, I just grab whichever image from the storm period shows the snow at its zenith, open it in Photoshop to get the pixels, enter those into Excel, and there’s the snowfall in tenths of an inch.

 

Aside from setting it up to see what’s going on during a storm, the web cam is really only needed during the fringes of the season (storms where the snowfall may melt/settle significantly before measurement) or with extended travel, so I don’t have the measurement boards set up permanently.  And since I don’t have it positioned in exactly the same spot every time, it means I have to measure the reference 2” value every time.  I like it best if I can get a reference image of the blocks before any snow falls, but if not, I just measure one of the 2” increments above the snow that is still fully visible.

 

It’s an indoor web cam that I’m using, so one downside is that I’m limited and can’t measure off of multiple boards, and the setup is closer to the house than I’d like, but for our sheltered location it seems to give representative snowfall values.  It certainly gives me a virtual presence as a weather observer though, and so far I’ve been satisfied with the results.

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Just had a bit of graupel here as of 10:10am.

 

We are partly cloudy now.

 

We had a final tenth of an inch of snow this morning, and now that we’re partly cloudy I’d say that marks the end of the frontal system that went through.  Based on the BTV NWS discussion, we’re in the interlude before the clipper comes in this afternoon:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 636 AM EST SATURDAY…CLDS/PRECIP/WX...LOOKING AT VERY LITTLE CLEARING THRU THE DAY DESPITE SFC RIDGE OVER REGION AS CLIPPER SYSTEM MVS IN QUICKLY THIS AFTNOON. WX FOR THIS MORNING WILL CONSIST OF LEFTOVER -SW FROM EXITING FRONT OVERNGT. THESE WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE AIDED BY SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS BROUGHT ABOUT BY SFC RIDGE.

 

It looks like something in the 1-3” range is the estimate for here based on the point forecast and the associated hourly weather forecast graph:

 

23NOV13B.jpg

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Euro/Extrapolated NAM = Rain to Sleet to backend snow.

GFS = Nothing.

 

Nice.

 

lol... I thought the ECM had several inches of front end snow too, but that's just trying to figure it out through the Wunderground images. 

 

Hopefully we get a compromise, but I don't envy the NWS right now with this one.  Biggest travel day of the year for many folks, and could be anything from partly sunny to snowing or just pouring rain. 

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Hopefully we get a compromise, but I don't envy the NWS right now with this one.  Biggest travel day of the year for many folks, and could be anything from partly sunny to snowing or just pouring rain.

 

Well, as usual the BTV NWS discussion seems to have a good handle on where things stand.  It sounds like a North Country-focused version of the main weather discussion thread without quite as much emotion involved (although the spicy drama there has certainly kept it entertaining).

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 223 PM EST SATURDAY...OVERALL PATTERN THRU THIS PERIOD IS

NEARLY PERSISTENT NRN STREAM TROF ACRS NE CONUS WITH A TEMPORARY

RETRACTION THAT COULD MEAN OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR THE

2013-14 SEASON BUT UNFORTUNATELY DURING ONE OF THE BUSIEST TRAVEL

TIMES.

 

BIG TRAVEL TIME FOR THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND YET LARGE

INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN BETWEEN ECMWF/UKMET/GEM AND GFS AND EVEN

WITHIN THE GFS THE OPERATIONAL RUN APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER.

 

THE 12Z RUNS OF ALL CONTINUE THEIR PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH ECMWF/GEM

ANDNOW NAM HAVE INSIDE RUNNERS/COASTAL HUGGER DUE TO PHASING

BETWEEN NRN/SRN STREAMS WITH MIXED/RAIN EVENT DECENT AMOUNT OF

QPF/WIND. MEANWHILE THE GFS OPERATIONAL IS EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE AND

NO PHASING OF STREAMS AND NO PCPN.

 

I/LL FOLLOW SUIT WITH PRVS FCSTRS AND TAKE THE AVERAGE SOLUTION

WHICH PLACES A STORM TRACK NEAR CAPE COD WITH QPF <0.5-1 INCH

ACROSS FA. TRACK WOULD FAVOR COLDER...SNOW SOLUTION AS WELL.

 

LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS OR ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT FEEL THIS

IS PRUDENT WAY TO GO AT THIS TIME. POPS ARE MARGINALLY IN THE

LIKELY CATEGORY BUT BLENDS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES THUS WILL LET

IT RIDE.

 

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD TREND COLDER AND DRIER

WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN

PLACE ON SAT.

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lol... I thought the ECM had several inches of front end snow too, but that's just trying to figure it out through the Wunderground images. 

 

Hopefully we get a compromise, but I don't envy the NWS right now with this one.  Biggest travel day of the year for many folks, and could be anything from partly sunny to snowing or just pouring rain. 

Yeah I was just speaking broadly. There is a short front end hit of snow.

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The BTV discussion is full of win today... love the little extra tid-bits and descriptions.  "Brutish" lol.  And they are right... winds are going to be a big issue with ski resorts across the region tomorrow.

 

CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY ACTUALLY QUITE
BRUTISH
WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 8 TO 18 ABOVE ALONG WITH WINDS
GUSTING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 319 PM EST SATURDAY...THEN JUST A ROUGH DAY ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
AND TEMPERATURES HOLD MORE OR LESS STEADY FROM THE MID TEENS TO
THE LOWER 20S. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY SINCE MID-
FEBRUARY AND WITH THE WINDS IT WILL FEEL LIKE MID-WINTER.
INDEED...MEAN MIXED PBL DEPTH INCREASES TO 800 MB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45
MPH RANGE UNDER STRONG COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. GIVEN SUCH A STARK
CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND BORDERLINE GUST CRITERIA...HAVE OPTED TO
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACK AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW EVENING. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS IN THE ADVISORY...BUT THIS IS
MORE OF A CONCERN FOR GAP FLOW EFFECTS THROUGH THE PASSES AND
RIVER VALLEYS AS OPPOSED TO THE WESTERN SLOPES PROPER. I-89
THROUGH BOLTON INTO WATERBURY IS ONE SUCH AREA. WITH SEVERAL SKI
RESORTS OPENING THIS WEEKEND...THESE WINDS MAY ALSO PROVE
PROBLEMATIC FOR LIFT OPERATIONS DURING THE DAY DESPITE THE
WELCOMED NEW POWDER.
IN REGARD TO SNOW...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AS THE STRONG COLD THERMAL ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ACT TO
SQUEEZE OUT LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. ONLY
LOOKING AT LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO PERHAPS
2 INCHES BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SNOW LOVERS HAPPY DESPITE THE
RATHER HARSH TEMP/WIND CONDITIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. FROUDE NUMBER
PROFILES NOT SURPRISINGLY QUITE HIGH GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING...SO
BEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS.

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