All Activity

Yeah, don't think I'd put too much stock in a full on torch here yet. I was totally ready for one last winter with a strong/super EP Nino dominating. With the STJ weakened under a strong Nina, the real player will be the AO/NAO and a strong N-S gradient. It's just a question of where that gradient wants to set up.

70 at 3:30 with strong S winds reaching 28 mph

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

Best get to a cooling station.

I'm going to tell you right now that that's probably a mistake on Thursday.

But did you report any 'junk'?

Ritz.

Couple months ago some strong declarations that regulars were “leaving here” Why was that? Who were they? Thanks

The synoptic pattern has multiday potential, but I’ve learned to be skeptical until the day of. All of the hype lately (mainly talking about social media and news outlets, not here) is way overblown. Last week was supposed to be some historic event and it was mostly a dud. Every forecast trough is supposedly the “best setup in years” according to some. It’s really muddying the waters and desensitizing the general public. Big trough in spring ≠ mega outbreak. Despite living in Oklahoma, I’ll most likely be sitting these events out. With the hype and potential location, it will be a zoo storm chasing anyway. Being the rebel that I can sometimes be, I’ll be out in West Texas today and tomorrow. There’s a low probability for an isolated supercell both days. Sure, nothing might happen, but I’d prefer to be out when it’s quiet, rather than a circus.

I’ll be coming from Minneapolis on Friday so my plan is to chase the warm front Friday afternoon in Iowa. Now that it’s finally in range on the nam, central/southern IA looks to be where the warm front will set up Friday afternoon. Taken verbatim, the 12 nam shows an MCS developing across central Iowa with a tail end Charlie moving through a pretty good parameter space. That being said, this is only one solution several days out so it’s hard to know exactly what to expect right now. At this point, all I can plan on is leaving Minneapolis by 11:00 am and driving south to try to be in position for the afternoon. Friday could be impacted by convection from the night before, but right now Thursday looks to remain mostly capped. Even with parameters and moisture really ramping up after dark on Thursday night, most models look like they remain dry. I would think this would be a good thing for Friday so we don’t risk mid day convection ruining the atmosphere. Saturday looks like a pretty solid day in the central plains. Dryline with deeper moisture in the warm sector with a strong jet streak overhead should lead to a good set up. Problem I see is some of the best parameters stay way south in southern OK, likely due to some early convection firing farther north. My current plan is to try to make it to KC on Friday night and head south to chase the dryline Saturday afternoon, possibly as far south as southwest OK if I have to. Was hoping to chase Sunday but it looks like the system might be too far east for my liking by Sunday. Could be some potential right up next to the center of the low, similar to what happened in northwest IA last week. That would probably be a really conditional threat if anything. .

One of the greatest challenges is that while spring is arriving earlier, we can still get these late season freezes especially in the interior Northeast. Warmer winters and and quicker starts to spring cause an earlier bloom. Then the earlier blooms are susceptible to very damaging hard freezes like last May. We had much earlier 80s and 90s than usual last April before the record hard freeze in the interior last May. https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen. Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers. In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph. To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. “We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.” The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be. “I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said. The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear fruit.

Every so often I watch this final scene and hope. As always ….

4-21 Some morning cumulus as I was right on the western edge of the cumulus shield. Taken with the 16-35mm at 35mm... A solitary strip of cirrus in the late afternoon. Taken with the 16-35mm at 16mm...

Gust front moved in off the Lake. Winds picked up some from 5-15 to 15-25, and temps went from 54-55 to 39-40 in 30 min. Currently light/misty rain falling. BRRR!

4-19 The altocumulus getting some incidental light in the extreme post sunset conditions. Taken with the 24-70mm at 24mm...

4-17 Some eroding cumulus getting spot-lit from the setting Sun. Taken ith the 24-70mm at 53mm...

66.7° here! Last of the snow piles in the neighborhood just about gone.

Morning low of 32F Quickly becoming dry after the last two rain events failed it's feast or famine. Wednesday's shower chances dropped to 20%.

GFS up to it's usual unique talent to wall off warmth from getting N next week... That huge ridge at mid and upper levels .. yet it somehow engineers the means to keep a cool E flow from ORD to Boston

The explanation makes perfect sense, and of course it’s coming from someone who is literally involved in the process. I didn’t know that Smugg’s had switched to the single site methodology, but now that you’ve confirmed that it clearly explains the change in their snowfall numbers. From the perspective of skiers who are skiing all over the mountain at various elevations and aspects, it seems appropriate that you described it as “apples and oranges” vs. “right and wrong” or “good and bad”. A single site (hopefully an appropriately representative one) is probably more optimal for long-term record keeping and comparison, but it might be less representative in some storms vs. others than the range that was found when sampling various parts of the mountain.

My bar is 1 EF1 over the course of 3 days. It's that kind of year.

Guess nobody told people in India that their fertility was under threat. That said, the catastrophic slump in birth rates is pervasive across the industrialized world, with South Korea and Taiwan in the van, but Europe, North America, Japan and China all well below sustainable fertility levels. Maybe the fault is of the media,which push unreasonable life style expectations, or maybe its aliens. In any case, it is not a fossil fuel problem, the Ultra Orthodox and the Amish in the US both seem to have maintained historic fertility rates while surrounded by the near childless..

Wow MAV is ugly for Thu morning. Maybe it’s sensing a little rad cooling before sunrise? CON 21…EEN 20…BML 16

Orioles have called up Kjerstad https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/orioles-promote-heston-kjerstad-top-prospect.html

Cracker of the Day 2024 Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk