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I’m not sure for his area. It was dry here until 2:00. Cool with a high of 50.7, but if you needed to get lawn stuff done most of the day was dry in CT. SW CT started earlier

well thats a concerning development. NAM is starting to show a secondary low over illinois.

Spring blows. Enjoy Tuesday. " Aside from scattered rain chances later this week, temperatures will be stuck below to well below normal thanks to aforementioned stalled front and very persistent onshore flow. Temps will be stuck in the 50s most days across the eastern half of the CWA. Frontal boundary placement will make temperature forecasting a bit tricky for CT and western MA, where there are few opportunities late week for temps to climb into the 60s in that region.

I don’t remember any talk on here of punting all day Sunday as a cold rain. Was it a bit more dreary than expected?

Seems to me that JB uses analogs extensively, sometimes that works super, Sandy being the prime example, sometimes (perhaps more often than not) it does not. So he is one of the sources that amateurs like me try to keep up with, recognizing his biases. I'd guess that for his paying members, just one outlier call that eventuates will pay for a century's worth of subscriptions. So Perhaps consider him as the counterpoint opinion, often astray, but still useful.

Very nice day with temps peaking in the low-mid 60's. Dandelions started opening up today. Windy off the Lake tomorrow with shwrs, stms on tap later in the day/overnight.

Lake Tahoe 19 degrees and snow before. Insane

Lake Tahoe 19 degrees and snow before. Insane

Builds character.

Stein kicked in the nuts the next week-10. Looks wet wet wet

Best day of severe right now seems to be Tues/Wed like you said,low level shear picks up Tuesday into Wed,other wise looks more wind and possibly severe hail.But i agree flooding could be a issue with training cells.Pollen has been pretty brutal here,its good to get some rain

Out of curiosity.. where did you get that forecast from ?

0.09, just put on the sprinklers. Might as well get a solid watering in while the ground is already damp

Just 24 hours ago my forecast for today was showers mainly after 3 PM.

Yeah, getting some heavier downpours developing towards our west

could add a few tenths here and there tonight with weak elevated cape

I wasn’t really expecting steady rain all day long today. What a crap day it turned out to be.

Yeah pretty impressive compact ULL swinging perfectly into the central Sierra.

It was just a lighthearted joke…..the weather really doesn’t care if we do that the weather does what it does. There’s like 7 of us in here who banter, it’s not super serious.

Yep, the next 10+ days rain chances are good. Grass couldn't be any greener and I'm on a mow every 4-5 day cycle. Need some T-Storms, tornado, earthquake stuff to spice things up to the next level....

Yeah I saw. That was the central sierra snow lab’s snowiest day of the season with 26+”.

We are up to 0.63" of rain today for a 2 day total of 0.87". We are at the high so far today at 55.3 degrees

This Winter has probably the strongest predictive signal from this range, given the expectation of oncoming La Nina (maybe Moderate strength), -PDO which has recently strengthened its -1 standing, probable +QBO, so La Nina/+QBO combo, which favors a stronger Winter 10mb Polar Vortex (we saw this combo in 22-23) - the correlation is +AO, recent global temperature high temperatures and record highs. And +AMO has a slight SE-ridge correlation, the +AMO cycle is still peaking positive. Some have correlated the part of the solar cycle approaching the solar max with warmer temperatures, but I have found a weak correlation there.. On the other side, when I locally barely get out of the 40s on an early May day (yesterday), it's hard to imagine the potential isn't there for some Wintertime cold. Also, the -PNA has been weak so far in this La Nina cycle, and nothing like what we saw 2020-2023. ENSO has had, in my opinion, a higher than average correlation with the PNA over the last few decades, and we aren't going to see a fixed Wintertime PNA state 85% of the time like we have seen 1950-2020, given +ENSO. Last year the PNA was not really correlating with Stronger El Nino, and this carried over into the Wintertime.. something to watch..

Great contribution. I don't know if you want to see the results of a non-linear solution in the parameter space being suggested here.

Might as well be in some kind of blocking pattern at this rate. Very few, if any, dry days to come by over the next couple of weeks. May 2003 all over again. May 2003 had a record 21 days with measurable rainfall.