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.56" for ASH yesterday, had sun a few minutes ago, now clouds 49F

10 days into May tomorrow and we're looking at highs in the 50s. YUCK

@snowman19 When do you foresee the PDO actually shifting? Do you think we stay predominantly -PDO for a while or do you think a shift may happen within several years?

Hopefully the rain holds off for quite awhile, so I can mow.

You misinterpreted or didn't understand what I said. Let me try again because it is an important point. With the same weather conditions East Nantmeal will measure fewer 90F days than Coatesville 2W. We know that by comparing years when both stations operate. If the station population is changed by replacing Coatesville 2W when it shuts down with East Nantmeal when you moved there, then the 90F days will be reduced due to the difference in 90F days measured at the two stations. You aren't determining the County climate trend. Instead you are producing a station population trend, Your station population is trending cooler and with less 90F days with time. Below is what I have gathered so far on the elevated sites. I only had time to get the last 2 years at Atglen and Glenmooredeos. Clearly the changing station population is driving the results, not the climate. The older stations with longer records: GlenmooreCoop, Honey Brook and Coatesville,all have a similar and increasing level of 90F days over multiple decades. The newer stations with shorter records: KMQS (Coatesville Airport), East Nantmeal, Atglen and GlenmooreDeos are also similar. All have intrinsically fewer 90F days than the three older stations. Clearly seen by comparing the years when older and newer stations are operating. There is a big change in station population in going from Glenmoorecoop, Honey Brook and Coatesville2W alone in the 50s-90s. To a station mix which is primarily made up of stations with relatively low 90F days from 2004 onwards. Now that GlenmooreCoop, the last of the older station, has shut down, 90F days are going to trend down going forward no matter how much Chester County warms. You will be trumpeting the results I am sure. Finally your house is not exactly a minute part of the elevated stations and is clearly pulling down the elevated 90F average since 2004. The more I see of your new method the worse it looks. More biased than Chescowx for sure. Shows how good a bias metric NOAA is. The further away you are from NOAA the more bias you are introducing.

Don't disagree. Am posting mainly because the local data and how it is tortured is of interest. This week I've learned that most of our coop sites that cover multiple recent decades have an upward trend in 90F days.

2 quick outs and then it all went to complete hell.

What happened to the forecast decaying MCS overnight? Looks like sprinkles in VA and clear skies here.

After-the-fact post.......driving home around 4:30 yesterday, as heavy a rain I've experienced between Dudley and Oxford, MA. Great lightning---inncluding one that struck about 50 yards from my car. Road was compoletely flooded. Still managed to get my DD drivethru.

Great call by @CT Rain with the severe threat, maybe he should start future severe threads. Not a lot in terms of wind or lightning but the hail was pretty neat to see.

Textbook -PDO, strengthening and getting even more well defined. JB’s +PDO wishcast isn’t looking too good….

SLGT risk still for areas east of the i81 corridor up to the Mason-Dixon line on the new day 1... 2/5/15

Yup.

GFS continues to show 40's on Saturday vs other guidance.

Again, the strong -PNA conditions being shown by LR models support a warmer end to May https://ibb.co/F7ZCqDD (map default is positive, so -PNA is opposite)

We also now have a pretty strong cold pool of water developing in Nino 3. These deep-pocket starts usually precede Moderate+ events. https://ibb.co/qspXSjq

I have had Ryan Halls live feed on most of the night. My God Tennessee and Alabama! Sick sick super cells. Pray for those folks.

Not to hype this season further because there are a lot of factors that involve tropical cyclones: African dust, etc, and for the longest time of several decades we did average in the Atlantic 9NS/year. But last year we did see 20 named storms in Strong El Nino. That blew out previous El Nino stats, for all El Nino's (Weak-Mod-Strong): TS Hurr MH 1951 12 8 3 1953 14 7 3 1957 8 3 2 1963 10 7 3 1965 10 4 1 1968 9 5 0 1969 18 12 3 1972 7 3 0 1976 10 6 2 1977 6 5 1 1979 9 6 2 1982 6 2 1 1986 6 4 0 1987 7 3 1 1991 8 4 2 1994 7 3 0 1997 8 3 1 2002 12 4 2 2004 15 9 6 2006 10 5 2 2009 9 3 2 2014 8 6 2 2015 11 4 2 2018 15 8 2 2023 20 7 3 1953, 1969, 2004, and 2018 were all Weak El Nino's. So the record for Moderate+ El Nino's before last year was 12 named storms (1948-2022). The warmer water temperatures, which were a leap above previous years, did play a role last year.

The now 2nd Jackson County, AL supercell is ramping up as it goes through Scottsboro, AL

I was in East Long meadow at the park looking due west right into the thing. Most of the lightning seemed to be cloudy to cloud bolts..it was pretty cool

Just got home from Knicks game. Feels like a summer night

PDS Tornado Warnings for Dade, Walker, and Chattooga counties in GA for the tornadic storm leaving Dekalb County, Ala near Valley Head and Mentone.

One heck of a storm here in Candler. Severe thunderstorm warning Buncombe. Tornado warning Eastern Buncombe.

Here's another view of that deep cold pocket developing in Nino 3. https://ibb.co/qspXSjq

Since I moved back east from the west coast in 2017, we have yet to have 1 normal snowfall Winter.