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Still rain here in Maytown.

People get burned when they ignore the models this close in. Of course they're not useful for banding etc but track? Absolutely

Just changed to light snow here as we dropped from 37F to 35F over the past hour.

The northern plains get blizzard warnings for just a few inches.

I believe almost all of NNJ had a foot or more. I'd have to go back to look at the final totals though.

35.. Starting to see chunks fall.

GFS

Good to see you posting. I'm finally seeing some white rain here. Temp shot up to 37 but is back down to 36 now. All surfaces very wet. Not expecting any meaningful accumulation until sundown.

Meh. Makes me want to puke. Still a decent output overall, but nothing historic.

If some of you havent yet realized that many (most) posters here cant do much more than look at snow output maps, AND STILL CHOOSE TO ARGUE WITH THOSE PEOPLE, thats youre goddamn fault for engaging with idiocy. Everyone stop whining. This a fucking hobby of tracking weather. Put the keyboard away and go watch tv or go for a walk or something. Holy shit.

That seems a little bold based on modeling, especially coming from BOX. They are usually fairly conservative with snowfall amounts over the interior.

Wet flakes mixing in with the rain. Go USA!

Of course models are useful and should be looked at. My point is 1 bad model run after 10 good ones and people line up to jump off a cliff. It's just funny

The Mesos might be right but they also might be wrong,,,,,,,it's nowcast time as we really won't know which guidance had it correct or wrong until tomorrow,,,,,just my opinion

Looks good…we go with it now. Storm is on the doorstep, we see how it plays out.

Plains blizzard warning style for 2-4”.

Once it drops another degree, JFK should flip. The above freezing layer from the surface extends to around 975 mb. That's a bit too thick.

I already take meds for anxiety but it seems like alot of you guys need it too.

I think we’ve definitely been hurt by our elevation in some minor squall events or lighter storms before. When I was in high school id drive through central ffx county where the elevation was 450+ ft and there would sometimes be noticeably more snow there. Always interesting to see how much elevation effects our microclimates

oh please. i can't take a walk in the snow here....it's raining.

I wouldn't either and yep it's been quite a nice run there.

Fair. I’ve explained in detail in several subsequent posts. The areas you’re talking about are under blizzard warnings for 18-25”. So… if the latest models of 6-10 were to pan out; that would be quite the bust for those areas. I have said that I thought those numbers were insanely high and don’t account for the possible shifts we’re seeing, but I’m also not the NWS so we’ll see

Also if it were further north off southern Delaware like the NAM was showing yesterday that mega band now over the ocean would have been over us.

I thought it was just white rain here on the UES (right by the East River) but actually it’s starting to stick nicely to grass, cars, awnings, etc.

NYC has gotten 10 inches of snow 18 times in the last 25 years. Not rare, but its a big event. And 10 inches is the bottom threshold here