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This is likely a 3-5 event for NYC metro area. Consider it a big win given then extreme -PNA (full latitude trough down to Baja) that’s going to be in place during this event

What about C and E CT?

11.5" at my place. Still going strong. animated.mov

The model forecasts always kept the warmest to our SW which isn’t a surprise. The warm up during the 17th to the 25th did beat expectations on the warmest few days which has been a common occurrence since 2011 and even prior to that. The -NAO linking up with the Southeast Ridge will actually help us out for a change this weekend as the high will hold in to our NE for a colder solution and keep the storm track south. You can see how much the models changed for Saturday from the earlier runs. New run more -NAO linkage with Southeast ridge for rare favorable solution Old run Southeast ridge and -NAO separate

That'd be great... but pretty bold at this point. And can someone pin this?

I mean how realistic is this with the strong blocking? I haven’t looked at it yet unless the High is moving out quicker than previously modeled.

Well, 2 weather outlets already have snow maps up. Once takes the 3"-6" from the Connecticut River West, to the East of the river 2"-4"/1"-3". Another has the Southwest 1/3rd in the 3"-6", the middle chunk of the state 2"-4", and the northeastern corner 1"-3". They must feel more confident with the Euro and also the fact the models have bumped NE somewhat.

Tick tick tick.

Euro looks great S/SW CT special

Slowly bumping north

In a way, yes... but the northern edges look to be the same or even eroded slightly more. We need a few more tics to have this be anything but congrats NYC cop

Blocking is easing up to make this storm go slightly further north. Now the interior areas of NY look like the jackpot. Nothing wrong with a few inches though.

But psychologically?

I was looking at the ensembles yesterday, and I agree the Jan 3-8 timeframe is one to watch.

You won’t melt much

Although it's nice to see snows again I do hope we can score at least one classic benchmark track this winter. Unfortunately although we're getting a lot of help on the Atlantic side, the fast and furious Pacific jet is still preventing those classic KU NESIS tracks of the past. If the jet can relax even briefly we might get a chance

Id take the 0z Euro run just as currently modeled for Sunday and NYD, but hopefully it'll shift south a bit to get many others in on it too.

Oh the idiot is back. Hi idiot. Did you bother to read where I said “FWIW” and “guru” (being sarcastic)? Nevermind, you’re too much of an airhead to comprehend something that complicated. Man, you are really stupid. No clue, none….

Kinda a given. Warm nose always wins out Real mess coming

5.75" here and -Sn, radar looks paltry, but maybe we squeeze 6 inches. Id say at least 12:1 ratios. Congratulations Dryslot, glad I don't have to drive to KLEW area today!

So the guy you think is a quack is now correct because of this bold prediction

The Kuchera map

FWIW, The stratospheric guru Judah Cohen thinks there’s going to be a major strengthening of the SPV in January

What map? The forecast for the dec 23rd event?

This could be a bad storm in terms of freezing rain, and some wind, and models look like the temps on most of models not breaking the freezing mark until Sunday.