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A lot warmer today than I was expecting. Mid 70’s right now.

Globals are not going to resolve this on a large scale. Those amounts will be very localized . Probably NYC up into W MA. Mesos showing it already

where did the Stein talk go?

and I just wonder, when the next warm ENSO phase arrives, what kind synergy results happen that next time. Does this set the stage for another 2023 global phenomenon.. Bear in mind, 2023 temperature event ( at an entire planetary integrated scale!!) was worse than unprecedented ... it was utterly not predicted by anything unaided foresight, or technological assisted human vision. That event is more than a mere geological enigma. It's a silent doom siren ( to me ). This is intuitive ...but scratch calculations, with the assist of AI, only lend credence to the idea. In order to raise 1 cubic meter of ocean water by 1 degree Celsius, you need approximately 4,200 joules of energy. The oceans have ~ 3.6e+12 KM of surface area, which M is thus 3.6e+15 (3.6 quadrillion) square meters. In an (at least...) quick albeit gross assumption, the top 1 cubic meter of the oceans are virtually coupled to the thermal state of the atmosphere due to ongoing noise of turbulent exchange averages of the whole planetary system. Using that conceptually for our calculation implies 3.6e+15 X 4,200 joules = somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5e+19 .. Just because it's fun to hear this in dialogue ... fifteen quintillion joules of energy. And, that all took place in basically a 45 day span back in late March to early May ( check that - ) of 2023. That was just the ocean. The atmosphere behaved in a similar delta during those 45 days, not lagged , which is an extra special creepy "omg-ism" in its own right - the whole system, ocean and air, SIMULTANEOUSLY surged by 1 deg C ( note, these are approximations for/in conjecture but in principle, we're conceptually correct). That part is a particularly troubling, non-intuitive observation. The contemporary understanding is that the atmospheric, vs oceanic system, are "QUASI" coupled - which means in laity that they only seem to be coupled, but really aren't at the point observation. Time is required in the total exchange thermal engine of the total system. Such that over time, the oceans store/lose temperature from multiple sources, then, non-linear feedback processes, over time, effects the atmosphere, and vice versa. They are not suppose to unilaterally "explode", simultaneously. There's been a lot of floated insights and studies - not criticism whatsoever. However, I haven't read anything that specifically addresses what took place from this kind of approach - and personally, I am 100% confident that answering question is more paramount, particularly when adding that "...it was utterly not predicted by anything unaided foresight, or technological assisted human vision" Because even to the laity ... that means we don't see or know the land mines along this path to destiny. Be that as it may ... let's include the atmosphere's contribution to the energy - obviously this has all likely been calculated million times ... to far greater confidence precision than all this but I'm just having fun here. To raise the temperature of 1 cubic kilometer of air by 1 degree Celsius, approximately 1e+12 joules of energy is required. Just using the troposphere (lowest layer) of the total atmospheric volume, there is 6e+12 (trillion) cubic meters of atmosphere down here (we'll also assume for concept-model a well mixed temperature rise too place through the tropospheric depth ). So ... 1e+12 joules X (6e+12 cu meters)/1000 => 6e+21 ... six sextillion KJ of energy added from some unknown source, to the atmosphere, between late March and early May of 2023 Thus, ocean and atmosphere together is close too close to that six sextillion KJ number to really report that as 6.015e+21 so just take the larger numeric expression. Comparing this to the all of the nuclear arsenal of the world being unleashed, all at once ... according to AI assist, the U.S. alone has a total 5.3e+18 yield if the total cache were expended (2000 devices). I don't know what the Soviets have, and China has, and India ...or other capable nations bring to the table, but just for argument's sake, this number may be tripled. I'm getting tired of looking this up for the course of this thought experiment - which is based on approximations and less fully vetted anyway... but, 3(5e+18) works out to 1.5 x 10^19 Given that the margin for error in the assumptions of metrics going into this little arithmetic/thought experiment my be plus or minus 2 or 3 orders of magnitude, that puts this imm abv number into a similar value as the 6e+21 ... Basically, what we observed in 2023 is like a complete commitment gloabl holocaust's footprint.

me and you will get it

I woke up to 44 this morning and it's currently 57 at noon! What a beautiful day out there. We had a good turnout for the Spring ride of Thunder In the Smokies this weekend! Last weekend was huge for the SE National Mini Trucks for Maggie! It's good to see folks traveling again after Helene!

1.74” so far, and we need more. the initial storm yesterday killed someone when a tree fell on a golf cart. the wind howled for a bit in that storm.

did get a 5 minute tropical downpour around 1030

In the winter I’d be triggered with snow up there while it’s 60 here.

1.5 inches since Th. Nice soaker. Definitely in better shape than last year at this time. Everything is green and saturated.

.04 of drought busting lol. Severe drought incoming.

Look at this bs.

71/64.. Nice summery feel . Overall what a summer preview weekend . Get thru the next few days of showers .. start warmth again by Mother’s Day and beyond.

the hrrr can't seem to get a good handle on it

1.39” at my Lanco residence. .

That area is getting good rains now, se pa and getting into snj. Did the rgem miss it or it doesn't have much after this.

The stuff over Del. could make it here later

Drizzle has loved into my area while enjoying the birds. Getting dark to my south.

After last night's 0.28", I just got a very small downpour here that dropped 0.06". Not sure we're going to get much more here today, as it appears most of it is going to be to the north and west. But at least the ground finally has some moisture here, and we should get a good soaking Monday into Tuesday. Hopefully by the time it's over we will have received around 2 inches of rain.

The RGEM would be a nice soaking event across our area but Philly into SNJ would miss the jackpot again.

Yes!

0.05 so far. drought busted

Getting some sunny breaks and dewy

When is the next batch coming?

Clouds increasing. But all in all a great weekend finally. The best season is here.