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Some smoky and sneaky heat out there today..

The 12Z UKMET has Dexter eventually becoming a minimal 988 mb H on Thursday though that’s an outlier right now:TROPICAL STORM DEXTER ANALYSED POSITION : 35.0N 67.5WATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042025LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 04.08.2025 0 35.0N 67.5W 1005 360000UTC 05.08.2025 12 36.3N 65.9W 1008 351200UTC 05.08.2025 24 37.8N 63.9W 1010 340000UTC 06.08.2025 36 39.2N 62.3W 1008 431200UTC 06.08.2025 48 39.5N 59.8W 1007 410000UTC 07.08.2025 60 40.3N 56.0W 1003 391200UTC 07.08.2025 72 41.2N 51.3W 993 540000UTC 08.08.2025 84 43.2N 46.2W 988 651200UTC 08.08.2025 96 45.0N 42.6W 985 480000UTC 09.08.2025 108 46.0N 36.8W 993 401200UTC 09.08.2025 120 47.2N 29.8W 999 360000UTC 10.08.2025 132 CEASED TRACKING

I understand. I’m just talking fires in general.

Sneaky warm day-just hit 90.

You are looking at the global temperature jump in linear terms. First, what seems like a small rise in average global temperatures has much more amplified effects regionally. Second, SSTs in some tropical and even subtropical zones areas can cross a threshold where a nonlinear shift occurs. Resulting in standing waves that remain stationary for extended periods leading to very high local to regional warm departures. Unfortunately, there isn’t a guide we can consult which has a set SST level at which the changes will occur. As the climate is warming faster than our modeling technology can keep up with. So many of these shifts are only realized after the fact.

88 with 61 dew point What fantastic summer weather

The models have dried for Wednesday and Thursday and Sterling has went wetter for Staunton. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-79.05445863492788&lat=38.16380555335593

Please do Will. I always look forward to your Updates!!

yeah let it rip...

Milky sky and hazy visibility with the smoke No smoke odor

zzzzzzzzzzzz hopefully we get some canes going soon to give us something to track

Fishing yes, boating, not so much...

No.

cat 5 into miami or bust

I think that dude is either in denial and just says "la la la can't hear you", or is just doing that to troll...been the habit pretty much since this tough stretch began. All we have to go is what's happened the last 9 (and likely 10) years. The reality is just what you stated. Now whether or not we get out of the PDO cycle and we can put together a better 10-year stretch remains to be seen...but at least for now this is where we at.

it reached 88 here, a good day aside from the off color sky lol

But why is it happening every year now Roger? Are there chemicals they could spray over the forest from a plane to cause fire suppression?

was the streak of 42 consecutive days of 100+ also broken Don?

12z Euro was a bit more robust at 850mb. Gets a good bit of rain into NC and points north. I think that much like Dexter, models could be playing catch up with this if there is a pocket of lighter shear available to the eventual low.

a bunch of the fires are nowhere near people

Yes, big win for GFS this week, but the EURO is trying to bring up a disturbance late Sunday into Monday now. Will add ensemble when it is out.

If there’s no threat to life or property… absolutely let it burn. It’ll be after our lifetimes when that forest burns again.

Signal is still kind of muddled but the 12z Euro brings a slug of rain into the DC area points east from whatever comes of the Atlantic lemon.

From the maps available at the link below, I looked at the 50 Jul-Aug-Sep maps for each season 1975-2024 and counted the days. It took ~2 hours to count it accurately, but it was well worth the time so I could figure out how statistically significant the 39% of MH hitting during phase 2 really is. There are 4,508 days Jul-Sep 1975-2024 excluding 1978, which for some reason is blank. I counted 749 of those 4,508 days (16.6%) to be when it was in phase 2 (outside or inside circle). I rounded that up to 17%. The 16.6% is exactly 1 in 6 days rather than 1 in 8 days. That’s because there’s been somewhat of a tendency for the MJO to be longer in phase 2 in July-Sept vs the average of the other 7 phases for whatever reason. But even so, 1/6 is nowhere close to 39% as it is only 43% of it. Thus, I consider this to be a pretty strong signal for phase 2 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

The Euro and GEM have caved to the dry GFS for the end of the week. The GFS has been dry consistently while the Euro has been wet consistently. This is a big win for the GFS and a kick in the groin to the Euro.