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I salute you

Nice sunrise this morning

The jet stream collapsing will be interesting for tropical storms.

Its always active in the atlantic, but if memory serves landfall canes were supposed to be above average. Thats my point. Upper air flow in eastern conus has been doing its thingy.

Hi rcostell just an FYI a troll is someone who posts offensive, provocative or disruptive content that upset others under the cover of anonymity. I am not anonymous I appropriately reference all data. I have a weather website with clear links to all data. It is real and it is not fake. A poster cannot be a troll for simply posting actual real NWS data. Why would you or anyone be "offended" by the audacity of posting the raw climate data that you disagree with?? It is science being debated with facts - that is of course not trolling at all!

Thee. Not we.

Neutral-cool winters offer a mixed picture. There have been some good ones, one great one (the highly popular 2013-14), one horrible one, since 1980. 1980-81, 1981-82, 1989-1990, 2001-02, 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2016-17. By late fall, there could be stronger hints. The coefficient of determination for the WPO begins to ramp up in November. A predominantly negative WPO is a good sign for the winter; a predominantly positive one is not. Finally, based on subsequent research, the rapid buildup of snow cover in Siberia is not a good thing, if one is looking for a lot of Atlantic blocking. This research has suggested that a higher Siberian Snow Advance Index (SAI) is correlated with a positive AO. It also notes that the early inverse relationship found by Cohen et al., was an exception, not a rule. Excerpts: The running decadal correlations between the SAI_OCT and AO and SAI_NOV and AO are shown in Fig. 7d and e, respectively. In the former, there are significantly more positive than negative values (Table 3), suggesting that the period of strong positive (negative as defined here) correlations that occurred in the 1990s and 2000s, as described by Cohen and Jones (2011), was a rather exceptional event, as previously noted by Peings et al. (2013). Indeed, the frequency of decades with significant SCA_OCT–AO correlations of either sign are not significant. In addition to the recent period in the 2000s, Fig. 7d reveals a period of significant negative correlations centred in the 1840s, also present in the 21-year data (Fig. S4d). Finally, the ERA5 data reveal that the recent period of the statistically significant negative relationship between SAI_OCT and the AO has ended: the most recent decades have positive r values.

It's fun to have at least something to watch... but I'm more interested in the pattern after this time frame. Gut says the first cold push is waiting in the wings. I really need to finish my re-insulation prOject at the house!

Looks amazing for my foliage excursion up there tomorrow! All indications are it has been pretty solid so far.

0z Euro in the long range had Sandy Jr-esque 500mb look...

LOL! showing photos that are not from 1945 or 1948 certainly support these altered temperature adjustments. And you are good at ignoring the factual actual data that does not support your world view of climate. You never answer where is the control data for the county? Answer not in Chester County PA at all! The fact is NOAA chose to adjust the temperature to levels below any other reporting site in the county on a consistent basis almost every year before and after the move for decades in a row. That is the epitome of fake data. We only traffic in actual data not fantasy!!

I hung out in Atlantic beach this summer and I was surprised how many houses in long beach aren’t raised

I strongly agree. Data adjustment is essential, because without accounting for station moves, observer/observation changes, and changing local environments e.g., urbanization, the record would reflect human and site variability rather than true climate trends. The Coatesville 1SW example clearly demonstrates why homogenization techniques are both necessary and effective.

Central Park October average for 1961-1990 was 57.5 degrees. The 1991-2020 average is 57.9 degrees (although I calculated 57.8 degrees, not sure how the NWS got 57.9.) So it's not that much warmer. Other months haver warmed more. And wait until this decade goes into the averages. Temperatures have gone off the rails since 2020.

I got all the way down to 48

Below normal temperatures should continue for much of the next week with the exception of Sunday which could see some valley locations touch the low 70's. Our next rain chances look to increase by later Sunday with the next cold front. We turn below normal again to start next week.

We track

Below normal temperatures should continue for much of the next week with the exception of Sunday which could see some valley locations touch the low 70's. Our next rain chances look to increase by later Sunday with the next cold front. We turn below normal again to start next week.

Euro also has something coming up.. atleast the pattern isn't as bad for this one

These departures are against are warmest normals. They're like +5 or better compared to 90s averages

Cool. Just let the 31st be dry.

NOAA has a Pacific Ocean heat "blob" Blobtracker Web site. It tracks large areas of heat under the ocean's surface. These areas can affect weather "thousands of miles away." Right now, there is a very large blob of heat stretching from Alaska to California. I found the whole thing...fascinating. Link is the article, NOAA Blobtracker link below: https://www.kuow.org/stories/return-of-the-blob-heat-wave-spans-pacific-ocean https://www.integratedecosystemassessment.noaa.gov/regions/california-current/california-current-marine-heatwave-tracker-blobtracker

Chubbs- A reminder, once again....As you may recall- a seperate thread was created for your ongoing quest to debate Chester County Pa with the resident troll here. If you could take that "debate" there, along with the troll- I think many of us who don't care about Chester County Pa weather site trivia would be better off for it. Thanks

Not too bad considering the torch we had to endure

Not looking good for a second severe season here. I feel like I live in California with this weather to be honest