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why cause u missed the big one?

Well I was pretty sure that’s what he was getting at…but I just don’t know why it can’t be said in plain language.

Have been debating a trip to the beach over the kids spring break week of 3/16. If it looks warm then I’m sold! .

Mitch that’s actually the “second” event as the boundary comes N. GFS/GEFS way different One of these models will cave on the progression, take a guess who lol Here is gfs vs euro at 114 hours, you can see why gfs has snow at that time frame

Where are you reading that?

You laugh. Someone will be doing just that, if those temps verify.

Yeah, it'll all be a distant memory in a couple weeks.

Erosion from most of the shore is pretty cyclical. Some erosion during the cold months, then the beach rebuilds in the summer when the waters are calmer. Aside from the October Nor'easters and obviously our blizzard on Sunday/Monday (which I didn't notice any further erosion from, and come to another theory of mine) the waters have been relatively quiet What I have observed is a near constant stream of small, long period (12-14s) swell almost due south all winter. That longshore current combined with the the heavy offshore winds this season make me think a lot of this sand is going north and/or is being stored in the offshore sandbars. I really want to get some bathymetry data adjacent from this site specifically, since the sandbar at least from a standing perspective seems much farther offshore. I'm going to build a sonar rig to mount on either a paddle board or kayak using a Garmin unit that will data log bathymetry. Just a matter of me finding a day that's pretty flat and being willing to throw the wetsuit on and paddling I like building and using my own equipment, that way I'm not tied to anybody and it gets done the way I intended it. But yes, to answer you, I plan on monitoring this for a few years on a monthly basis.

Nothing huh?

Let’s snow next Monday and then install the following week

Temperatures were there other than that winter sucked.

Nasty ice if anything. Bleh

Oh man, what a rude awakening coming back up here after being in Miami! Sorry, that's rough!

Average there is like 62” or something, so a good winter so far.

After being in Miami for 10 days, I need spring to be here asap

The heat after first week of March seems legit this time. Just a monster SER cranking. Probably perfect to get everything growing before a random killer freeze in April

For something 5 days out I don’t have a current read. I don’t start to take it seriously till down to 3 days out.

That’s pretty interesting. There may be some seasonality or other cyclical factors so you may only get a clear picture of the ongoing rate of erosion over a period of multiple years

Eps a bit further north this run. Edit: I inserted a new map that was centered 6 hours earlier as it had more than the first. It represents the max 24hr panel on this run.

that's all I've been hearing all winter

Don't get too excited, from what I'm reading, around March 10th we're getting another taste of winter cold again.

It's all behind us...

Would be my second biggest event this year out here. So yeah.

What is your gut feeling? The models are what they are. Some of this goes to straight historical knowledge. Genuinely curious as to your thoughts of the outcome at this juncture… what is your current read, if you had to give it? @TSSN+