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Heavy rain in chester just blew up. Proceeded by decent lightening, no winds.

This is literally the same outlook everyone posts on youtube every single year. Not to mention - I'm trying to figure out why the northern plains are "Polar Vortex", the Rockies are snowy, the Midwest is "Arctic Blasts", the southern plains into the southeast is the ever-present "Battle Zone" --- but the mild corner is specifically most of Kansas and Nebraska, a fourth of Iowa, and half of Missouri. What pattern would produce that? I'm not sure. Perhaps somewhere had to be mild.

1.27 inches of rain today.

O’s now a half game out of a wild card spot with a series at Rangers this weekend that could be pivotal, and I just got in a pair of unopened 1993 Coca Cola Orioles shades on Monday, so things are looking up!

Raining. May get a little heavier in a bit here

We’ve had bears on our property a few times. If I could, I would invite them to live here. Love them.

Medium to long range in every model are trying really hard to disrupt the consistent ridging episodes near Japan and east of there. Let's see how things shape up mid to late month.

Let's see -5-10" still nets me 46-51... Take considering my call was 50-75% avg Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Direct Weathers preliminary winter outlook ( yes its too early ) https://youtu.be/IZqYlxG7C9U?is=3cdS4C1yUk_g8R87

Direct Weather's preliminary winter outlook ( yes i know its way too early)

Since all the talk about wild animals. Here's something I found quite interesting as it relates to AI queries. I was listening to a WEEI morning show podcast from Jan, and it was in the news that a skier in China was mauled by a snow leopard. And I looked up snow leopard just to see what they looked like. I got that info, but of course, a list of AI common questions came up, and one was "Is snow leopard aggressive?" And the AI answer basically said no and no attacks documented on humans. Its reference source was a Reddit post from 10 years ago (attached). Yet the search also brought up a Reddit post about the Jan 2026 China attack as a link, independent of AI! So let me get this straight, AI uses a 10 yr old Reddit post that says no documented attacks from snow leopards, and it *ignores* a 6 month old Reddit post about a person mauled? WTF? AI can't see both Reddit posts, and create a better answer? The two Reddit posts directly contradict each other! Seems AI answers are either/or, it avoids caveats or "depending on the situation." Real useful...NOT!

To me this would more so impact modoki or similar to 2023-24 Nino type events if we had a CP EOF versus what is currently shown above, i'm not sure having a second EOF would impact the logistics of an EP Nino like we are currently seeing take shape. The amount of CP or west based Nino events is rather low and anything typically below the threshold of moderate status (i.e. weak to neutral) in either ENSO state tends to have overriding features that dictate what midlatitudes tend to see, they just add a little flair from the tropics. V wind is important because if winds are converging the forcing in the U direction will be stronger versus that of a diffluent flow which would have less umphh to move waters. OHC is not going to dictate the strength of a Nino/Nina event always. Take for instance the Nino of 1986-1988. ONI reached 1.5 in the summer of 1987 in this multi year event, RONI actually peaked at in the winter of 1986/87 at 1.5. MEI recorded it a staggering 2.1 in the beginning of summer of 1987. OHC on the other hand barely scraping to over one and it did so for 1 month. These other variables dictate how much the OHC will rise or fall so they encompass this aspect already just not the raw number of OHC. The OHC tends to rhyme with ENSO state but never the full story of the strength of the ENSO state. I wanted to add too look at the OHC for 1983/84 after the super nino comparing it to the other metrics listed below. Again OHC rhymes (often) but is never the reason for strength. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ RONI https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/ ONI https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ MEI https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt OHC

Ready 2 be buried...in stratiform rain puddles

By all means. Start whenever and never stop. It ends well for them. They are happy and healthy people…

Punt until 2028

No worries, I am not sure why they decided to have two updating values. Always trying to improve is an important aspect in life. Criticisms are an important part in this field as it helps build ideas and potentially new technologies for us all to use and benefit from.

Proxy! Snowfall seasons for the E Coast in very strong El Nino are hit or miss. No very strong El Nino has resulted in a blockbuster snow winter so far, at least for New England! One thing about very strong El Ninos, some fcsts for what happens in parts of the world have a high confidence. The 4 very strong El Ninos we have had since the 1950s, all have had suppressed ATLC hurr season and a mild CONUS winter. Active STJ and a wet srn tier also works. And everyone always thinks CA gets crushed w/ big rains and snows and the Pac NW is dry, However, in the 2015-16 event, CA underperformed big tine (prompting "endless drought" stupid hype) and the Pac NW was wet. Moral here? We have a limited dataset for very strong El Ninos, at least in the era where we can determine SSTs in the remote areas of the equatorial Pacific where it matters most, and given what happened in 2015-16, that suggests we have *not* seen the full range of what very strong El Ninos can do for sensible wx impacts around the globe simply b/c sample size is small. So if this El Nino ends up being the strongest on record, we may see some unexpected sensible wx emerge for parts of the globe, and given the non-linear nature of the Earth's system, it does not mean everything will be "worse" across the board. Higher temp anomalies end up impacting positive and negative feedbacks in various degrees and what ends up happening can be unexpected. Also, there are no less than a dozen other oscillations going on across the globe outside of ENSO, and we certainty have not seen every combo possible of then when very strong El Nino is occurring, so this can explain deviations. Yes, ENSO is among the strongest oscillations out there, but it does not occur in a vacuum! So maybe we will, esp. @CoastalWx, will be pleasantly surprised w/ frequent "VIOLENTLY BEAUTIFUL" snow vistas this coming winter! LOL. That being said, so far the ATLC hurr season is suppressed big time from the hostile upper-level conditions and the WPAC is much above avg (213% of Y-T-D ACE as of today), so that is working out as expected!

This is an EOF encompassed by several EOFs though (5 to be exact) so in some ways it does have multiple like many of the other indexes do just not the repetitiveness of one defining several different areas typically 2 EOFs exist per index. RONI hit 1.4, MEI hit 1.1 while SSTs showed roughly 2. You could make the argument of breaking down the east and west of SSTs as well as wind but since it still currently covers those regions I don't see how creating another EOF would improve the skill outside what we see. As 40/70 said it is strictly a metric for coupling within the tropics and I think it has done rather fine for virtually every Nino/Nina thus far. Again slow to show rapid changes but still shows when those changes occur. I would never put stock in one index to tell the whole story of what is going on whether it is SST, wind, OHC, OLR, etc. That is why the multivariate is an awesome tool NOAA could have done away with it when the old data was lost but there were many Meteorologists that reached out and wished to keep this going for reasons.

Looks like I ended the day with 1.29