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I don’t like definitive statements generally but this one almost certainly looks gone. It’s not that the ops “lost”, but the ensembles have moved en masse in the wrong direction as we close in and we’re relying on unproven AI to pull an epic short(ish) range coup.

Saturday looks like the main event now lol

26.1 with occasional flurries today. Feels like a real winter day.

I’ve basically given up. Think winter has shown its flavor. It’s cold, it’s dry, it’s not a shutout pattern “atmospherically” but it’s not for us on the ground. Bet we find one more 1-3” event and see this as a could’ve been winter.

An impressive showing from the GFS this week, going 0–2 within 100 hours of the phantom storm’s onset. Forecasting confidence remains high; accuracy optional.

Very 1932-esque out there.

Freaking brutal out there looking at models right now.... top tier boring the next 10-12 days

Heavy snow most of the morning. You can see it starting to wind down west to east on radar. Pines are getting buried.

does this give us anything? why cant we get a storm that just goes up the coast?

ok brother thanks i'm kind of a sensitive sally

NAM is colder with upper 20’s

I honestly wonder if Mother Nature is John Henry....the timeline of the evolution fits perfectly.

Hopefully they can get another 6”+ event like last year.

Just teasing, nothing personal

"we're all" is not valid. Other people live outside North Carolina. I know it's hard to believe, but we do.

I am declaring defeat on Sunday and moving on.

Significant Snows Possible Latter Half Of Holiday Weekend Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. There is now a growing signal amongst guidance that such a storm may indeed materialize. Synoptic Overview There are no changes with respect to the prevailing thought process surrounding storm number one. The energy will simply fail to coalesce soon enough for the region to be impacted by a major winter storm due to the follow up disturbance triggering a reconfiguration of the western CONUS ridge into a more positive (southwest to northeast) orientation. This subtle change promotes a slower down stream evolution, which results in the energy phasing over the Canadien Maritimes instead of just off of the east coast. While this does not preclude snowfall, per se, it doe relegate the region to a lighter snowfall that may accumulate an inch or two over the higher terrain of the interior. These type of wave spacing issues, as referenced last week, were a common occurrence that consistently plagued storm potential last season. Thereafter, the amplification of the incoming trough over the midwest will allow for a reconfiguration of the ridge back to a more positive orientation. This will afford the system more of an opportunity to amplify fast enough to have a greater impact on the region by Sunday night into Monday. However, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning whether or not it will amplify fast enough to provide significant snows for all of the region, or whether the primary impact will be more confined to eastern zones. Anticipate a First Call on Friday. Threat Assessment Now I just need John to helicopter in to my rescue and use the surface reflection over New Foundland to validate my analysis.

Ironically. The biggest snowstorm on record in Toledo is 22.0" on March 1, 1900. And Detroit 24.5" April 6, 1886

I have less snow to date then the toaster bath thunderstorm January of 2006 0.0"

Yeah could start at 33-35ish but 925 is like -2 or -3 so should easily wetbulb/latently cool down to 31-32. I’m a little skeptical of sfc warming from like 28 to 35 though over interior in a few hours….esp high terrain.

YOU'S PEOPLE DON'T REALIZE HOW LUCKY YOU'S ARE! Round these parts the world is ending with temps dropping below freezing for a few hours. And so it begins "WINTER"

okay be nice i didn't say anything disrespectful i was just giving my opinion

Two years in a row is insane lol.

@dendriteto photoshop Ray’s face there?

Probably, just enough to lay down 8 tons of salt and freeze the walkway. Just what I don’t want. Im not kidding, 0 return hobby for years now