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The 0z EPS rolls the cold forward pretty much as one would expect with a WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern evolution. One sees how the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest is the focus of the cold while warmth proves very persistent in the Southeast. 288 hours: 312 Hours: 336 Hours: 360 Hours: The usual caveats concerning skill apply that these timeframes. Moreover, how the stratospheric warming propagates will influence the pattern evolution for the second half of the month.

18z Reggie yesterday was the first piece of guidance that brought rain to the Pike. Everything followed after that

.14". That sucked.

Ok..I guess I stand corrected. Didn’t realize DE was such a snowy place.

Appears that way. But I just casually looked yesterday. Maybe there were some north trends or things we look for winter like deformation areas etc.

.29 in the bucket at my station

I see we're already canceling winter in the long range thread. Couldn't even make it to Thanksgiving.

Looks like the main storm track will stay west of us at least through the Ohio Valley up into Canada through December 5th with quick shots of colder air - progressive pattern with no established cold air YET....Southeast ridge in control as we migrate from MJO phase 6 into 7 and then 8 2nd week of DEC

The question is what period you're discussing. There are conflicting signs the way I see it. Even conflicts with the models' own MJO forecasts and 5H forecasts. In the end, all that be done is to look at modeling and hug whichever one suites one's opinion/gut/biases since everything remains on the table once out 7+ days. But we can't deny the medium and long range forecasts this year of warm, like last year, have not been great. So that along with a weak Niña on its way out the door by year end with noticeable western Pacific cooling, I think the urge to assume warmer LR forecasts are going to verify is risky for now. If they do verify, that will change things in my weenie mind.

Yup. We've really devolved into a winter climate more akin to Georgia or South Carolina.

What is with these weird hours? 354hr? 306hr? We'll probably get a below average period after Thanksgiving into the first week of Dec as the EPO will be negative.. probably unlikely we see snow though. Then the pattern retrogrades and changes pretty quickly.

They always tell employees Thanksgiving weekend, obviously with the caveat of conditions permitting. We all know that's not realistic. It's generally mid December but I'm not seeing how that will be possible this year. Or if they can manage to get the guns fired up, it'll be very limited operations. As anyone around here knows, you qualify every forecast statement with the asterisk "I could be wrong". I hope I get frostbite from a stinging blizzard over and over...but the overall setup we are all staring at is one of a warm and dry winter.

So the AI had the rain getting up in here, and the other non AI guidance did not?

Winter cancel? 0z EPS DEC 4

I wish i looked harder. Maybe there were red flags. AI was one of them.

Honestly, What is wrong with this guidance? It’s so much worse than it was, and I don’t even think that’s debatable anymore. WTF?

I was just going off the last time I looked at anything: Thursday. Then was surprised to feel rain on way to gym this morning

That was also an 18hr forecast. Kill the horse, send it to the glue factory.

Weather related: a weaker polar vortex = colder air in New England, if I read this correctly. https://www.wbur.org/news/2025/11/21/polar-vortex-what-to-know-new-england-boston-december?utm_source=npr.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=local_headlines&utm_content=homepage

48 hr forecast from the Euro. Whoops.

Any estimates on when they plan to open?

You're not going to get a below average temp pattern with that upper latitude and Pacific H5. That's a +2 +nao and developing -pna.. it's going to flux the SE ridge after unless the models are wrong about those 2 patterns. CFS MJO? I'd look more at the plots bluewave posted above.

Obviously way too early to declare victory, but if this SPV progression verifies, at least the December ideas in your winter forecast are going to be very good. Paul Roundy is also in agreement with you that the PNA goes negative/RNA once we start getting towards mid-December based on the expected progression of low frequency tropical convective forcing….. ^ “This morning's zonal GPH anomaly plot + GFS forecast, showing the strato PV disturbance peaking during the week/10 days, and reaching down to about 50 hPa. There appears to be some propagation to lower levels later on, but the models contrast sharply in this regard, with ECM showing a re-strengthening of the PV in the same timeframe. It aligns with the overall trend observed, with the current PV displacement resulting from a stronger strato anticyclone over Alaska/Canada, and the vortex core shifting over Siberia. After that, ENS members show a possible re-centering over the Arctic, with the anticyclonic area losing intensity and effects over the PV. We'll need to monitor what happens in the next two weeks or so.”