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Nice bump west with cmc ensembles

I see tell-tale signs that GFS will win this battle. Moderate snow in Kansas is the signature of the phasing northern stream energy. The storm that tracked through southern UT-CO more or less died out as a dry weak circulation over nw TX and the primary low is developing further east now, around s AR, n/c MS into nw AL. If there's any model compromise it will be along the lines of 3:1 GFS:Euro. But it may be even better than that.

Agree

These ranges and probabilities are hilarious and great. I'm definitely not invested in this one. I'm solely rooting for inverted trough action. Those can be super sneaky good. Wasn't it in 2016 that one hit around Pittsburgh giving them double the forecast amount from hours prior? Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

EPS is a couple of inches less....can't have it both ways...some of the same people calling east "trend" were the same people defining a trend as "3 consecutive runs" earlier today when everything was coming west. If this keeps up through 12z tomorrow, then time to panic.

The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now

03z 21z On a positive note, SREF mean has improved.

I kind of think you're speaking from a NNE "outside looking in" perspective...SNE is getting smoked IMO....OP wobbles not withstanding.

Also, the gfs has a lot more precip and higher pwat values ahead of the storm over the Carolinas, Va, and Ohio Valley. That helps lower surface pressures further northwest and favors a northwest track.

You know, as sick as I am I decided to check in figuring you’d post something about the srefs.

Yes I said earlier I'd like to see some non American model support for a HECS, since we didn't get it I think it's on the table but not necessarily a likely outcome. Still think mostly everyone in the subforum gets a foot barring a major last second east shift.

3z Srefs look really good

Hot off the presses… LWX pushes watches ever so slightly SW to include bay adjacent counties west of the bay and SE Howard. MOCO and DC left out still. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 146 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 MDZ014-017-018-506-211500- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/ Anne Arundel-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Howard- 146 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches or more are possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Calvert, and St. Marys Counties. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially Sunday night into Monday morning. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$

Yeah, Boston area is probably 1-2 ft. It might be a little too warm at the onset though.

That’s fair. I think given trends there is a rather large “boom” scenario between NJ and Boston though, 20”+ somewhere the best band sets up

Not really icon and uk kinda back it up although not as extreme.

I've seen the NAM overamp storms a million times, but the GFS is usually suppressed or warm. Plus the UKMET, CMC and GEM are all with the GFS and NAM.

5.8”/0.50” 28.2° -SN

This is a hot-hand fallacy. It refers to the tendency to believe that a person who has experienced a run of success, such as winning several games in a row, has a higher probability of continuing to win because they are “on a roll.” The classic example comes from basketball, where fans assume a player who has made several consecutive shots is more likely to make the next one. Just because the EURO has been right in the past, does not mean it will be right this time around. No, if all the other models were showing nothing and the Euro was showing a blizzard where we could up to 2 feet of snow, I would not go all in.

Or in not in cat & dog equivalent amounts…. 0 to 3 in the RVA local area

Gfs and Nam are outliers being too strong. I can see them downgrade a bit.

Yes

We all staying here for the 06z NAM??

All jokes aside though— we’d probably all feel much more confident in this if the majority of guidance didn’t put our CWA on the western fringe of the coastal and we had the euro on board. GFS takes a very delicate setup and portrays a near perfect dance between multiple pieces of energy. And it’s been damn impressive to see it stick to its guns. I hope to fucking hell it’s right for once. Crazier things have happened. The others try and some get very close but don’t quite get there, which is still also a possible outcome. Or something in between. We’re 2 days out. A spread of 4-18+” on models 48 hours out for DC to Baltimore is pretty rough lol. I’d feel MUCH better if I’m CAPE or the Jersey shore to BOS. Still a little shaky in these parts given the setup, especially west of 95. Hopeful the inverted trough pans out and somebody between 15 and 95 gets smacked. Can def understand the anxiety given the possible gradient around these parts - especially for the western crew. I feel good, Randy. I’d love to feel great.

This is a valid point. I think the problem is that we have been burnt so many times by betting against the euro. You would think that within 70 hours the euro would have a good handle on this. With that being said, euro has performed poorly lately. Regardless of final outcome, all models have performed poorly with this system. Euro has been atrocious with this, even if it ends up being correct in its current depiction.