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  2. GaWx
    Yep, the BoM monthly relative peak actually rose ~0.1 over the last month to ~+3.7, very much unlike the drop of 0.5 of the CFSv2. Also, it unlike most others keeps it almost that high in Dec. I expect BoM will bust significantly too warm for this progged relative peak of +3.7 like it did in 2023, when it was the warmest. Also, note that every month since April has busted significantly too warm. One can even see that for Aug by comparing your two graphs: the Aug 8th run had Aug way up at +2.7. The Sep 5th run lowered it down to +2.35.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the EURO was better...but I'm willing to bet that the CANSIPS and JAMSTEC have missed by more than the CFS.
  4. OldSkool
    Mid 80s today and tomorrow......that's it.
  5. WxWatcher007
    Couldn’t agree more. We will have our chances.
  6. Birds~69
    85F/DP 69F at 12:30pm
  7. SJonesWX
    66 degrees at noon. hell of a way to run a TORCH!
  8. OSUmetstud
    Bom weekly data runs hotter than other agencies so you gotta compare apples to apples. The latest forecast compared to the one from just under a month ago:
  9. donsutherland1
    Astra did a really good job.
  10. OSUmetstud
    Its also mostly just the cfs. The 3.4 ONI on the ecmwf plumes is very similar from August to September with a peak around 4C. The CCSC/IRI plumes average went up from the July 20 to the August 19 forecast. The early September BOM forecast had a similar peak to the early August one.
  11. kgottwald
    MORE damned heat and 75 dews next week?! Are you kidding me?! FFS.
  12. WxUSAF
    6z euro for tomorrows rain: >0.75” 12z NAM nest for tomorrow: 0.00”
  13. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  14. GaWx
    The MEI v2 was just released for JA: +2.5 vs +2.4 for JJ. That’s the 2nd bimonthly in a row at a record high for the bimonth (back to 1979). The record high for any bimonth is +2.9. Here’s the rundown for JAs of +0.5+: 2026: +2.5 1997: +2.3 2015: +2.0 1982: +1.9 1987: +1.5 2002: +1.0 1986: +1.0 1994: +0.9 2004: +0.8 2009: +0.6 2006: +0.6 1993: +0.6 2023: +0.5 2018: +0.5 1979: +0.5
  15. Brian5671
    Where's all the heat you said was coming to to the area? El Nino? EL BUSTO!
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, save the precip regression for when it matters. I understand it's going to be warm...got it, but you def. want to swing the chamber as many times as possible if temps are an issue.
  17. michsnowfreak
    Cooler fall weather looks like its coming after mid-month. Average highs still firmly in the 70s though, dont expect anything too cool. Just fresh air.
  18. Brewbeer
    what an awful way to cast something as important as a vote, especially when the alternatives were better prepared, better qualified and had better policy positions that would have helped everyday Americans a whole lot more than "Gulf of America" and "World Liberty Financial"
  19. TauntonBlizzard2013
    I drive by the Cambridge? Reservoir off of 95 quite often. I can’t believe how low it is. You can walk across parts of it. Water is confined to the middle. Can’t be good
  20. michsnowfreak
    Not the whole winter. Maybe December.
  21. Today
  22. mitchnick
    Meanwhile, for those planning on a fishing trip off Japan, PDO up to -.73 as of yesterday.
  23. Mikeymac5306
    Temps still in the upper 80's . Looks like the Eagles home opener is gonna be a little wet. It's still Summer Damnit! I'm not leaving the Summer thread yet!
  24. Mike Cycle
    Paul, your site functionality is impressive. This must have taken a lot of work to get it all running, even with AI writing code. TBH, though, we are still not agreeing on the use of raw weather data to develop climate trends, although at really large scales there is little difference between the raw and processed. --Mike
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
  26. HIPPYVALLEY
    FYP
  27. 40/70 Benchmark
    That season may represent a decent proxy for what next year would look like with a weak El Nino.
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