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  2. A-L-E-K
    nest with a goofy looking convective evolution
  3. Paleocene
    12z 3k NAM has a line moving thru the DC metro around 21z.
  4. *Flash*
    Good morning, all! Long time, no talk. I'm going to share more specific thoughts as we get closer to DJF, but for now I want to offer a reminder for those newer to the forum. When we start talking super ENSO, you're inevitably going to hear about the climatology-backed warm biases—and understandably so, given precedent. But speaking strictly as a layman with more than 30 years of lived weather experience in Middle Tennessee, I've learned not to equate the seasonal mean with our ability to capitalize on a winter-weather window. Those windows may be fewer or shorter in a super ENSO regime, but every super ENSO winter I've experienced here has still produced at least one notable storm to hang a hat on. Are we overdue for a dud? Absolutely. But some of the best winter-weather windows I've experienced have been sandwiched inside otherwise meh winters on paper. Give me a highly amplified, mobile, extreme pattern with radical variables in play, and I'll take my chances.
  5. cyclone77
    The early morning round that some of the models had for this area ended up not existing. Looks like the late day action will be another northeast IL hit. Dogshit pattern lol.
  6. NEG NAO
    # 1 threat with these storms this afternoon is the wind - usually strongest right at the beginning of the storm unless one is in an MCS complex where it lasts most of the storm
  7. yoda
    So are the storms currently in Ohio the ones we should be watching for this afternoon?
  8. forkyfork
    warm and rainy
  9. CoastalWx
    He's just regurgitating what the ECMWF shows.
  10. WxUSAF
    Rain looks just about done
  11. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    Maple Trust Rx: Maple Trust Rx - Maple Trust Rx
  12. SnoSki14
    Couple of MCS complexes look to move through. One in east PA will clip us over next couple hours with much more significant one in the evening
  13. tiger_deF
    The first tropical wave (10/10) is looking rough, but this is the first time all season that there's been a healthy looking disturbance in the eastern MDR with a good moisture pocket. Low level vorticity is starting to increase as well
  14. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    https://mapletrustrx.shop/# Maple Trust Rx
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    The westerly QBO and the descending solar are two red flags for that kind of an outcome in the seasonal mean, neither of which were present in 2009....not to mention nearly 20 years of CC.
  16. NEG NAO
    Slight Risk of Severe has been expanded by SPC east into our area - also that area of showers/storms in eastern PA is not the main event - look further west in eastern Ohio - also expect additional pop ups to develop starting at some point this afternoon when the atmosphere has had enough and needs to develop storms........who gets what and where lines of storms develop is the # 1 question
  17. Stormlover74
    Threat increased
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be careful with buying into it full-stock....I feel like these Modoki like solutions are overdoing it in the seasonal mean because they are undergoing the magnitude of the warmer interludes early on. Rather, I interpret those solutions as validation for my conceptualization of how the second half will evolve.
  19. toolsheds
    Surprising I could hear them all the way down here by 70.
  20. wncsnow
    The mid range looks super hot. I am ready for fall
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, it's time to start paying attention. When there is a cold signal this strong during a robust el nino, it's trying to tell you something. Just look at 2009-10, which had a very strong cold signal there in the fall (of 2009). That one came with a backlash la nina. The 2009-10 strong el nino formed and dissipated quickly, which allowed a transition to a strong la nina. I wonder if the upcoming el nino peaks early and gives way to the development of a strong la nina in 2027-28. If it does, then expect a record warm summer in the East. Backlash la nina years, like 1973, 1988, and 2010, have produced record warm summers at PHL.
  22. SACRUS
    Some activity as the season gets into its peak period
  23. WxUSAF
    I was driving through it on I83 in York. Epic shelf cloud and then whiteout rain
  24. SACRUS
  25. canderson
    We had a few small pea size fall too
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    That quick warm up in early spring is another parallel to 2009-2010.
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