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The dry air is relative to the track and placement of the front. The overall heaviest of rain and thunderstorms is south (NJ/LI)...maybe CT coast but I think the llvl warm front is north enough to where we get precip to build inland.

Can we please salvage a beach day this weekend..yuck

What does BN mean? Barnes & Noble?

S coast south and west . Lots of mid level dry air inland

I do think we see a solid precip shield of showers moving through later tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Not saying this hasn't been the case in prior years - but this year seemingly has been significant in terms of distance between CAM solutions even up to the morning of events.

It mixed out a bit, but I don’t think of this as a traditional chamber airmass even though it’s a beautiful day. Dews will be back in the mid 60s there this evening into tomorrow. There’s a larger airmass change tomorrow into Friday in NNE, but the front will be hung up way down there. Next week we may see more of a backbreaker.

82/63, dews were low enough to finishing mowing

NAM 3k which is dry vs RRFS which has a squalline . I wonder which one wins

took care of the yellow jacket nest last night after dark and taking advantage of the lower dews I finished this masterpiece today: l lawn hasn't looked this good since June

Joe Bastardi brings something up that I think merits further study. The contrast in temps between the tropics and Arctic has dropped significantly since 1999 because the Arctic has warmed ~2C while the tropics have warmed significantly less. GW has been most concentrated in the Arctic. “A reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient lowers zonal available potential energy (ZAPE) and surface baroclinicity. Baroclinic instability is the primary energy source for extratropical cyclones (the large-scale mid-latitude storms that form along the jet stream and frontal zones). With less available energy to draw from: Models (including coordinated experiments focused on Arctic sea-ice loss and amplification) generally show fewer individual cyclones each season across the northern mid-latitudes and Arctic. The remaining storms tend to be, on average, somewhat weaker, slower-moving, and longer-lived.” Individual events can still be intense or produce more extreme rainfall because of thermodynamic changes. Because of the distortion of warming, it leads to some things opposite of what is portrayed in the general sense. Your point is that this differential warming can produce effects that run counter to the simple ‘warmer world = more of everything extreme’ narrative, especially for baroclinic storm frequency and intensity. The thought experiment cleanly highlights how the pattern of warming, not just global-mean temperature, controls the dynamical response.”

This is your dew right now . Not a Coc k

Synoptically there is light NW flow at 925 mb over FL still tdy, so that makes such events more likely, but as we saw ydy, the mesoscale details were everything. It all lined up perfectly for 2-3 hr. Law of averages and large numbers say this will happen at times! And this time, it just happened to be at a long-term climate site. Also, when one extreme occurs, another one like it in the short-term is often much more likely. Similar patterns breed similar sensible wx. How about that period Jan-Feb 2015? Probably one of the most spectacular examples for New England, and it was so localized, confined to ern MA/RI and Downeast ME, but it was @CoastalWx "VIOLENTLY RELENTLESS! " It used to be thought heat bursts were rare, but once the NWS and FAA installed ASOS/AWOS in the 90s w/ so many more locations and 1-min obs 24/7, we found they are a lot more common than we thought.

Your brain is beer fried if you think 82/57 isn't COC in mid August.

NAM and Canadian mesos are bullish. Hrrr has a few storms. FV3 says maybe some breeze and clouds?

No Coc anywhere, but cocked

And we never had another hurricane ever again. The end

Sun baked

Some know what the next hour would be. Very very typical down here in the morning until the marine layer retreat. I can see for miles and miles...Men in suits taking Chamber photos for next years calendar. Watching my pool temp drop every day now. The beginning of the end of a fantastic summer. Only 8 90 degree days and a ton of COC days.

Thanks. As w/ so much, there is usually more to the story, or details to add that change what one (or the MSM) may think immediately. You can't just gloss over every event. Not all record high temps, for instance, are due to a large-scale pattern that promote high heat or anomalies. An example would be a heat burst, which are mesoscale phenomena, and I think all-time records at some locations across the globe are due to this phenomena. Another example, and in colder climates this is often the reason for record temps, are local, strong downslope winds (chinook, foehn, sirocco, etc, -- there are many names across the globe for this!). Here's another recent case for hot temps. Hong Kong recently recorded its all-time record high temp (98) on Aug 9. Why?, b/c downslope offshore winds from Typhoon Dolphin that made landfall well to the N. So given the strong tropical sun and lower dew points, why wouldn't this happen? But it does not mean there was a big heat wave in progress across southern China or "heat dome" present! Dolphin was a very large typhoon at landfall, so the atypical part here was that many typhoons make landfall in ern China, and the vast majority of the time, you don't get record hot temps to the S. In this case, you had very long parcel trajectories originating deep within the Asian continent, so there you go. Daily or monthly record high temps have occurred in the CONUS b/c of this. Corpus Christi has had this happen a few time when a hurricane made landfall to the NE, as one example. Where did the dry air pocket come from in FL ydy? I don't know, but it was small-scale, so it does not represent the synoptic or hemisphere pattern either way! And aren't such wx details cool? It shows the sheer variety of what can happen and how there is always something new to learn or something one was not aware of.

Dews n Stein n CoC. Same old same old. Ya'll can come over here if you want some summer weather. High and lows for the month:

Hopefully not here-we are waterlogged. Was odd I was in south Jersey for vacation it's been really dry there-trees dropping leaves and burnt out grass