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April 1982 and April 1997 were very cold US-wide. CFS has the opposite. If it isn't drunk on its own delusions, you'd say April 2026 looks like a blend of 1963, 2002, 2015, 2019, minus 1982, 1997. Conceptually, the big El Nino following big La Nina with low solar is a very cold winter here. We don't have that combo for this winter. We have high solar, good El Nino following weak La Nina/neutral. It's probably more of a very wet winter here than very cold. More likely: 1997 and 1982 already had dominant impacts on the global pattern by April, and the upcoming El Nino does not. April on the CFS looks a lot like winter 2004-2005, if the greatest warmth was fully shifted south.

Pulled this from IEM for LOT, 1/1-3/31. Looks like most active start by a good margin in the last 20 years when considering all modes. 2026: 5 watches, 59 warnings, 135 storm reports 2025: 4 watches, 36 warnings, 92 storm reports 2024: 2 watches, 32 warnings, 80 storm reports 2023: 1 watch, 16 warnings, 25 storm reports 2022: 2 watches, 18 warnings, 23 storm reports 2021: 0 watches, 0 warnings, 0 storm reports 2020: 2 watches, 4 warnings, 4 storm reports 2019: 1 watch, 16 warnings, 16 storm reports 2018: 0 watches, 1 warning, 1 storm report 2017: 3 watches, 45 warnings, 62 storm reports 2016: 2 watches, 11 warnings, 12 storm reports 2015: 0 watches, 0 warnings, 0 storm reports 2014: 0 watches, 0 warnings, 0 storm reports 2013: 0 watches, 3 warnings, 3 storm reports 2012: 1 watch, 6 warnings, 8 storm reports 2011: 0 watches, 6 warnings, 5 storm reports 2010: 0 watches, 0 warnings, 0 storm reports 2009: 1 watch, 14 warnings, 16 storm reports 2008: 2 watches, 17 warnings, 4 storm reports 2007: 3 watches, 8 warnings, 4 storm reports 2006: 4 watches, 7 warnings, 25 storm reports Keep saying this, but March has been incredible when you consider all the svr action, warmth, & yes - snow for some.

Sure...just like 2009-2010 could have been snowier up here and the Pats could have been undefeated in 2007. But I'm a fan of the scoreboard.

All joking aside, small sample size or not, the data that we have implies that an El Niño stronger than 2.0 is going to slide east...it's why the strongest events are usually east-based.

It's rare to get a strong west-based Nino but 91-92 certainly could have been colder..

You think if March 2015 were as prolific as February 2015, I could have achieved a 65" snowpack? My position is that we won't see that....if we ever do, feel free to dig me up in 2080 or whatever and brag, if you have your head cryogenically frozen or something.

Sure.....I've been at that point for about an hour.

Well I said if you multiplied anomalies by 1.5x what would it be. That would make Nino 1+2 0.0 to 0.0.

Give a replica season of 1977-1978 and 1995-1996...I'll bet against a Feb 1978 redux and 127.5" of snowfall IMBY.

Agree to disagree I guess. I don't think more of the same changes the positions.

El Nino starting to rage and the MJO moving into 7-8-1 spells SE Ridge flexing it's muscles early.

Right.

It would't be.

Nationally, 09-10 was actually drier than most Strong Nino's. I guess at 39N it's not that typical to get several big blizzards but NAO has never been more negative..

If you have ever taken the time to read through my stuff, you wouldn't be asking that question. The shear anomaly of an occurrence of that magnitude renders it unlikely, regardless.

If Nino 1+2 is as cold as 09-10 I don't see how the pattern changes if it's 2.2 or 2.3

See, I think this is where YOU are being too literal....replay that season 100x, and I'd be willing to bet Baltimore doesn't get consecutive 3' events. This is like saying that some NAO blocking in 2015 would have gotten Boston 120" in month instead of 100". I think that is far too reductive and Linear a thought process.

Well you know ENSO's main effect is due north and south of SSTA's, where the Hadley Cell and mid-latitude cell meet right?

I think this is where putting down the calculator and being more pragmatic has some utility.

If you consider it was the most -NAO season on record, and a Stronger Nino STJ, it's not that far fetched. Anyway my point is it's not different things happen if you turn up the heat, it's just bigger same.

I highly doubt the warmth would have remained that related to the west had it grown that potent. I think going high on snowfall is ridiculous....that was such an anomalous outcome.

I think this is where meteorological logic differs from analog based opinions.

If 2009 were 2.2 or 2.3 instead of 1.6, I think that would have had a significant impact...yes.

A strong -QBO that season combined with Strong El Nino to give us several Stratosphere warmings, which corresponded with big -NAO events. A stronger El Nino may have actually given us stronger -NAO's (even though it was the most -NAO season on record since the 1800s, during a stronger El Nino). Nino 1+2 is almost cold there, that season. I don't think a max of those anomalies would have been bad at all. Actually, I think I would go higher on total in DC vs lower.

I'd take 82-83 or 23-24 over 2009-2010 any day. I get what you are saying, though...it was flukey that it was that bad here...blocking was so extreme.