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Looks like this -IOD is the strongest on BOM’s weekly records, which began back in 2008….

Looks gone there.

Either way.. odds increasing for a big storm at the end of the week

a few EPS

Satellite SST estimates show that the 23/24 nino cycle had a similar warming effect on global SST as the 2015/16 nino. Together these two nino's have triggered roughly 0.4C of global SST warming.

Per gfs, the end of October is going to be warm. The highest global anomalies so far this year.

Think she gone. Not much clustering to show anything interesting. A few AI members?

ensembles are very interesting.. GEFS, EPS, FNV3, and GENC all have members turning in and hitting now

Hazleton must sit at the right elevation for some kind of upper level jet stream. It can be dead calm everywhere else (especially Tamaqua) but wicked windy up here in the Humboldt Industrial Park where I'm based out of. Even the early morning, when winds are usually the calmest of the day.

This would have been an epic lake effect snow event if only we had the cold air. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

That looks like who I'm going to go with. This is going to cost me way more than my car Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

This. The darkness is the worst part of winter. Of course, being a truck driver, I'm not fond of snow, either, but getting dark at 4:30pm is very depressing.

I was thinking about 1998 and the only thing about that tropical season that I recall is Mitch at the end of the season. Now we're looking at a pretty uneventful season in general ending with Melissa which could become a high impact storm for Jamaica, eastern Cuba and or Haiti.

Both ops kick Melissa with a very strong coastal low. Sub 980mb on both the GFS and Euro verbatim.

AND THE 0Z CANADIAN is COMPLETLY DIFFERENT THEN 12Z -Impossible to start a storm thread at this point

Gfs now has a coastal

The ull

There are still too much of a chance eastern track over western Hispanola like the ICON is showing to ignore. It wouldn't be the first time the Euro has missed a center relocation and shown a track way too far southwest. Not saying it will happen, just keep it in mind when posting 200kt Hafs A-B runs. They are going to look really bad if this turns into Cat1 Shrederolla

I missed on Melissa by 12 hours, but this one is exactly what I talked about in Caribbean risk. It’s a powder keg.

If that trough were cutting off near the Great Lakes, we’d really be in business. But that doesn’t look to be on the table. Too progressive and it gets kicked, so that makes all this a much lower likelihood from the start.

Wayyyyy more promise than any other threat the last 5 years

So - nowhere do you explain why it's a dishonest "tactic" though. Are the facts incorrect there? Given that they seem to be correct, then yes, that does mean that the climate change threat is, in fact, overstated. It proves that yes - even though the planet may be warming, it in fact has not made life more dangerous. Your case is a circular argument. You're saying that what he says isn't true because... what he says isn't true. That's not a valid argument.