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and then it breaks down right when the MDR cane season's scheduled to begin ...

Should be the common theme for summer pattern with ridge EC and trough upper Midwest

Deep deep Not 2 days ago they had 60’s Sun- Tues

The lawns in Weymouth will be thankful.

Ok. I haven't looked in detail satellite loop for 10/3/1979. On 7/10/1989, sunrise in ern MA was clear and cool (60 F). Warm front tstms moved through by mid-morning, and then it stayed high OVC after in the warm sector.

Bring on the 75F dews

possible broadly defined/quasi Bahama Blue pattern setting up ?

Not to be a stickler, but....

What a week coming up. I think we see 90+ Tuesday to Sunday at BDL.

90 even.

Looks like 2.25” here so far. Gonna have to start mowing the lawn again.

the post about the accounts of sun breaking out was about the 10/3/79 event...don't want to get that confused with the 7/10/89. But its not uncommon for our EML days to begin with clouds and showers/thunderstorms moving through followed by quick clearing (hell, probably the case too in the midwest). I remember 5/31/98 was like this. Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms until like 9 or 10 AM (maybe a bit earlier) then off to the races with full sun

Two things that seem to work very well when El Nino is very strong. 1) The CONUS has a mild winter overall. and 2) the Atlantic is suppressed for TCs. This is one of the few truly long range forecasts (months) that actually have a high success rate!

Yes, the was some sun I bet in CT, but mostly cloudy overall in SNE. I noted that day in Woburn it was breezy and a thick high OVC by early afternoon. I went up to U Lowell to monitor the radar, and then noted the monster cell W of ALB. My drive from Lowell to HFD was OVC the entire time. Did not make it to HVN in time and I was just ahead of the MA tornadic supercell moving SE from Hubbardston, but I had no idea there was tornadic there (it formed rapidly after I left Lowell) b/c the VIS sucked! Even though in the HFD area missed the monster supercell, other cells hit the area, and one a drove though, I have never seen it get so dark approaching any storm in New England. The LTG was not crazy, but did it pour!

yeah I turned it on this morning simply so it wouldn't have to work hard later to cool it down

I remember reading some accounts that the sun broke out maybe an hour or two prior to the cell moving north through the valley from Long Island and that may have been enough to rapidly destabilize things. There definitely had to be some localized horizontal vorticity in which the rapid destabilization was enough to tilt this more vertically and become ingested into the updraft.

Forecasting a DJF average of milder than average is a no brainer for the northern tier of a strong Nino, but precip/snow is always a wildcard. As Chuck has pointed out, often the strong the el nino, the higher probability of a wetter outcome in areas like the Lakes where the generic El nino map would show dry.

Record breaking WWB for this time of year driving those record Nino 3.4 SSTs.

CoastalWx "mad" b/c the SLGT stops just short of Weymouth! LOL.

Oct 1979 was an odd duck. Not sure of the left movement as a factor. Maybe more CT Valley localized SRH enhancement and pure dynamics. It was right at the triple point occlusion, almost a like light version of the 1925 Tri-State Tor when the supercell followed closely the sfc low. This also occurred in NC/SC on 3/28/1984. Supercell was closely associated w/ a 980 mb sfc low and produced 15 tors, 7 that were F4! Reanalysis fcst using hires models presented at the SNE conference in ORH some 20 years ago noted that nothing stood out as any real tor potential for the 10/3/1979 event. It was the only tor and supercell, and no other svr wx reports in SNE that day outside that one cell. They also did reanalysis of 6/9/1953, and of course that stood out no problem. The BDL tor did $250M in damages. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $1.1B today. That makes it the costliest tor in New England history. At the time, the BDL F4 was the third costliest U.S. tor on record w/ the $400M at #1 from the SPS F4 in April that year and #2 Xenia OH F5 in April 1974. ORH tor in 1953 adjusted for inflation would be $658M, but in the 1953, the $53M in damages was the costliest U.S. tor up to that time.

The recent spike has sent daily Nino 3.4 temps well into record territory.

^You were right about the lagged warming after the SOI.

Tomorrow evening could be interesting near the northern parts of the LWX CWA