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No bullshit, you’ve been in since the beginning. You get a share of the name if this SOB trends and verifies boom scenarios in the sub.

Wild that Calvert and St. Mary's counties have a winter storm watch but DC doesn't.

Good ole SS: SS Storm Chase And Forecast Team - Mid Atlantic LLC Favorites ·onSstdepro818titci105u1hilut7tiam0i2h476l7958090t018762f3htt · READ THE ENTIRE UPDATE!!! *THIS COULD BE A BLIZZARD *OR* THIS MAY ONLY BE A FEW INCHES. ***WE DON’T KNOW JUST YET*** ————————————————- **STORM MODE ACTIVATED** ————————————————- **THIS FORECAST COULD EASILY CHANGE TODAY** STAY TUNED!!! ————————————————- **WE SIMPLY DON’T KNOW THE TRACK DUE TO MODEL SPREAD! ————————————————- PREPARE FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST! ————————————————- STARTING: SUNDAY DAYBREAK ENDING: MONDAY DAYBREAK (HEAVIEST SNOW LATE SUNDAY) ————————————————- WHAT: VERY HEAVY WET SNOW! AMOUNTS: 6”-30” Depending on your location and the track of storm. Areas along 83 may see close to a FOOT while areas WEST of 83 may only see 4-8”. Areas near I-95 may see 2-3 FEET (Maybe More). Highest amounts of 2-3 Feet will likely be near the coast! If the storm shifts east heavy snow will move out over the ocean. If it shifts west heavy snow will move over Central Pennsylvania. There are so many variables and we do not know. —————————————————- WE BELIEVE MANY PEOPLE FROM 83 AND POINTS EAST will “LIKELY” see significant WET snow! HOWEVER that’s NOT a guarantee! **Models are all over the place!!!** Look at these models and you will understand. THERE IS A HUGE SPREAD in totals and not much model agreement. There’s ALSO TIME today for TRACK changes to happen. We are monitoring all the data that comes in and we’ll get it out to you as fast as possible. We are now in storm mode and we will not answer many questions, but we will get the info out as fast as we can. Please understand this is an extremely difficult forecast. There is no way in this world for anyone to know which way this storm could track or wheel track. Just now that this is an extremely powerful and dangerous storm and a track west or east will change this forecast drastically. Someone will get 24 feet of snow!- This storm is so big and powerful it will wobble and just a slight wobble WEST will SHIFT huge totals over SCPA. YES THAT IS A POSSIBILITY!!! BUT, we don’t know and likely WONT KNOW until the event is happening!!! WE STRONGLY SUGGEST GETTING SOME GROCERIES AND SUPPLIES IF YOU ARE NEAR 83 & POINTS EAST!! You may not need them but time is running out and it’s better to be prepared and not need it !!! We are monitoring all the data that comes in and we’ll get it out to you as fast as possible. We are now in storm mode and we will not answer many questions, but we will get the info out as fast as we can. Please understand this is an extremely difficult forecast. There is no way in this world for anyone to know which way this storm could track or wheel track. Just now that this is an extremely powerful and dangerous storm and a track west or east will change this forecast drastically. Someone will get 2-4 feet of snow! BUT WHERE???? Even if you only get 6 inches of snow, it’s going to be a very heavy wet snow and extremely hard to shovel. Just imagine if the storm shifts and you get 12 to 20 inches of snow? With this being a very heavy snow that changes things significantly. Please be prepared for that and even possible power outages. There are lots of possibilities with this storm and we just do not know where exactly things will be the worst. We are monitoring and we will do our best to sort through the data, but it may be a storm that we have to just watch and report on in real time. Stay Tuned For More Updates!

It is not a climate thing. I think it’s just a Nino versus Niña. But maybe there’s more Niña’s now because of climate change

Again we're talking about 20 mile difference for moves just a bit more west than the set up happens to get the heavy bands over RVA. That's why the national weather service has the 10% high totals so high lol because they're really not sure and how can they be

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 812 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 DCZ001-MDZ013-016-504-VAZ053-054-057-501-506-526-527-212115- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T2000Z-260223T1500Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-King George- Northern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 812 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 or more inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...DC and portions of central and southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Latest RAP shifted West and has the jackpot right over @The Iceman

As I mentioned (as have many others) the winds and the density of the snow will make this much more impactful. Power issues for some near the coast

Boxing Day still seems like one of the best analogs to me and the same model led the way on both.

Benchmark. 40/70 lat/lon. Textbook for NESIS/KU events.

I will take pictures of my 12 inches of snow IMBY

Snow falling from the sky is my favorite weather activity so I’m OK with seeing heavy snow not stick

Man that 6z nam was unreal. Glad the euro bumped west because that was annoy night. Now we can start taking mesos more seriously and see how precip trends today.

@mitchnick just in the spirit of your post I weenied you too. That said, like I always say…we want every piece of guidance to go in our favor. The LOW itself doesn’t necessarily have to trend that far west for big improvements at surface. We just need clean phasing and early negative tilting/a little sharper trough.

What's a BM storm track?

You’ll learn young grasshopper to not get sucked into the hype ahead of a storm, soon enough lol

Here some advice from someone go has been there, done that for a long time: Storms like this with iffy temps never give as much as clown maps show

Reality's a bitch.

Brings laptop outside , drawing maps, issuances and posts in between shovels , all the while the house has turned into lips and hips all over floors

Smart. Solid snow TV until 4pm. Then 3-6 after that as the sun drops in the sky. Probably my some 8-10 lollies in decent banding is a reasonable forecast.

If I get 5” out of this, I’ll consider it a nice win. Was expecting very little and high bust potential 36-48 hours ago…regardless of what the gfs was saying. That said, whoever gets into the IVT is going to have fun, and I hope I can enjoy a bit of that. This is going to be a dynamic system. At least my thermals will be “good” relative to many areas.

I know it's the Rap, but the 9z really moved west over the 3z (extended Rap also comes out every 6 hrs but at 3z, 9z, etc.) With the Srefs and Eps, now Rap, moving west from 0z/3z, we can hope for another jump west. p.s. Wennied myself before anyone else does it!

It’s crazy I still don’t feel confident in GFS and what the NAM is showing. Gut tells me things are going east starting [emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]]z .