All Activity

Ok just looked at the GEFS and EURO AI Ens runs. They look supportive of the GEFS and EPS respectively, but more juiced up.

Thanks - I also like your discussion write up in the new thread - very well written.

Damn. Hope we didn’t peak too early. Imagine if this happened after a snowfall… lights reflecting off snow in the mid-Atlantic

I never even realized it did it until last year. My teenage son has it and he would show me that it would go from 3 to 6 inches of snow something like that if that's what the European model was showing for where we live. And then the next day if it went up to 8 to 12 it would show that on the next model. And then if even the next model it went to one to 2 inches it would show that it's completely ridiculous

So obviously I don't live in SE PA anymore, I've got a comfortable met job in Florida. But these MECS/HECS are just so fun to track and a great way to keep my meteorology skills sharp. My met job down here in Florida is so focused on tropical weather, except this past weekend with the snow haha. Man I was getting so bored of sea breeze convection all summer. When I lived in Berks throughout the 2010s and early 2020s, I think I forgot how rare storms north of 15-18" really are. For Philly, anything above 17" gets you into the top 10 of all time. And it has only snowed 2 feet there twice in recorded history. For ABE, a 20" storm puts you into the top 7 of all time. Of course, the past few years have been rough for big ones and I think it should make this even sweeter (if it does happen, no guarantees yet). We got so used to these MECS during past decades that, personally, I lost sight of how rare and treasured they really are. Remember, places like KPHL go back to the late 1800s and early 1900s sometimes with record keeping. So when you see these model outputs throwing around 1-1.5" of QPF into a cold dome with surface temps in the lower teens, you're immediately talking about something that has only happened maybe a handful of times in like 100 years. That in and of itself makes me appreciate just tracking the opportunity for something like that.

The upper levels are very similar to the January 6-7, 1988 snowstorm. If anyone wants to catch up to how that transpired, feel free to take a look at this video from back in the day....

Yeah, the chatter across the NWS and WPC has definitely increased today with GSP mentioning a Major Winter Storm this weekend. Of course there are many details to be worked out. I'm keeping an eye on a sneaky little disturbance Thursday for possibly an appetizer before the Big Show!

Remember to use "max temp in profile" maps where possible or take a look at 700mb even if the 850mb-SFC maps are all below freezing. Warm nose can get pretty elevated in these scenarios.

Agree but it's weird that the analog isn't showing on CIPS or CPC. There are a lot of good storms showing on the lists though including Jan 96, second Feb storm 2010, Jan 2011, and mid Feb 2014 to name a few. The 2007 sleet storm is also in the mix and that one could have been a major snow event. The analog lists are loaded but not with PD2. There must be some key differences at 500mb keeping that one at bay. IIRC, PD2 didn't have a big -NAO so it could be that feature. Not really sure.

Is the GDPS the Canadian Ensembles? Or just another name for the CMC?

been right all in on powerball's ice storm at this point anyways

How does Graham get 0.1 but Mebane 0.5? Can't be right

The one nitpick I have is that the lead TPV lobe is slowing over time, strengthening the eastern lobe of the Arctic high. If it were sliding nicely off the coast, I'd agree more with him. Probably aborts the cut and forces a transfer earlier than the 06Z AIFS. The 12Z runs came back down to earth a bit.

Wpc Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Odd that they wouldn't have the heavy snow outlook up to at least Philly/SNJ given the NBM map showing 6" up to 276/195.

you finally get your wish after the mid-week clippers.

welcome back.

First, remember that the GEFS is now 31 members. I think there were dissemination limitations that prevent all members from being sent to various servers, but the 20 displayed in that image are only a subset. That said, there are certainly a bunch of GEFS members that are duds, but my guess is that those are the ones that keep the cutoff stuck in the far Southwest. Certainly limited support for that idea outside of the GFS/GEFS camp.

there *may* be a window early, right after sunset, before the more widespread clouds move in. possibly another window late, after 1am, if the cme effects are longer lasting.

You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

Growth really improved after about 830-9pm. Those 3 hours or so between 9-midnight we really stacked it up. Prob had at least 2/3rds of our accumulation during that stretch. I don’t think it ever snowed truly heavy for more than about 15 min at a time. But just very consistent efficient moderate snow with those heavier bursts mixed in which was stacking at 1-1.5” per hour.

There’s almost a 10 degree difference in my temps than there’s. That’s scary. Lol .

Weather don't care about making a storm thread lol