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It went from 34 and mixed precip to 38 and rain here
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I can see sneaking over 3” for the month through minor clipper systems but I don’t see anything that would bring a significant (4”+) snow system anytime soon here. The flow is too zonal and fast to allow something to turn the corner that has more moisture into cold air, so we’ll be in a deep trough and cold/dry other than the minor lucky clipper system, or the SE ridge comes back and we get cutters/SWFE. There needs to be some mechanism to slow the pattern down-blocking preferably without -PNA which risks the SE ridge linking up with it.
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H5 looks better too with a stronger shortwave out West and less confluence allowing that push northward with the precip. Don't know if it'll actually translate to a huge change but encouraging regardless
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HRRR is rapid. Snow moves in at 3 AM in DC
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HRRR definitely warmer and north with the precip
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I'm taking calc 2 next semester so I may be pinging you quite often for help (though seriously if you tutor people I'd be interested depending on how my first exam goes) Physics will be next year for me and I cannot say I'm looking forward to it.
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As in ISP in Suffolk? I went by the CLI from Dec 2nd which had 0.0" they apparently reported a Trace on Dec 3rd. I updated the map, btw if anyones watching this thread, i changed it in the original post above.
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Lowk aced that test now all that’s left to do is reel in this storm
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Very Severance weather
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0z HRRR i believe has a better precip shield and is more north at hour 27 but i'm not @SnowenOutThere
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Yall are set. Pipe down
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
SouthCoastMA replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
I lived in Acushnet at the time and had 7" or 8". Just south of me along 195 got near a foot. Messenger in Manomet did well too iirc -
Probably the final outcome. I just wanna see flakes, other than the ones here.
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Yeah. I rag on them but it makes them better. Bulling works
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Kick-Off '25-'26 Winter Storm Obs
Damage In Tolland replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
As close as East Windsor there was a solid 2” as I drove thru there -
December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
WinterWolf replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
I remember shoveling my girlfriends garage roof(had a very low angle on it) at the very end of January that year(2011), and the roof had 36-38” on it…and the middle was so dense and icy…frieken nuts. Took like 4 hrs to do. We had piles so high that we were jumping off the roof into them. -
updated. i pushed the 1-3 line up a bit to the NW out of Tolland but kept the 1.3" over vernon with a localized area of light blue shading.
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
SouthCoastMA replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
yeah that was such a blue baller. crazy that 3 weeks later was the SOTC, and my first memory of whiteout conditions. -
2/19/93
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When riding the fence bet cold rain. If tonight's runs are even warmer yikes.
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2025-2026 ENSO
donsutherland1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, there's a different methodology. I use the BOM values when assessing patterns and impacts. -
Overall not a good set of runs at 18z for the I40 corridor. Teetering on the edge, so hopefully things will swing back south overnight
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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread
SouthCoastMA replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
I remember that one. flurries/dusting here, and an angry weenie was born -
The coldest air mass so far this season will overspread the region tomorrow night. The cold front could touch off a few scattered snow flurries or snow showers. The temperature will tumble into the lower 20s by Friday morning in New York City. Many areas outside the City will see lows in the teens. It now appears that the weekend will be cool but dry. A colder than normal pattern is in place. A prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first 10 days of December since at least 2007 (33.4°, 5th coldest December 1-10 since 2000). The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were: 1. 30.6°, 2002 2. 32.2°, 2003 3. 32.4°, 2000 4. 33.1°, 2005 5. 33.4°, 2007 All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around November 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -28.49 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.144 today.
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Kick-Off '25-'26 Winter Storm Obs
Damage In Tolland replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
Yeah 1/4 all of it last night
