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Hey I'm with you...I have no doubt we will cone out of it and we will get smoked again. I get there is a luck factor in this and there are things we don't truly know or understand, but all we can do is try to use data and knowledge to further understand. At this point we are closer to getting out of this and I can't see us staying in this drought for much longer. It's more of a theory at this point so I don't have a ton of data or reanalysis maps I can throw into this...but would be a fun project to dig deeper. Anyways, we have to look at the jet stream on a global scale and all the influences which shape the jet stream structure, position, and strength. As you know, when the jet stream is faster, it becomes more difficult to really amplify the jet stream (not impossible but just more difficult). I just think that where we are positioned globally, we are in a spot in which the faster winds result in an increased probability for amplification to our west and then just to our east. Where I've started to develop this idea was based on some of the weather across the West the last few years. Remember a few years back the West was getting absolutely pummeled for a 6 week stretch which was something more akin to what you would see in EL Nino versus La Nina. The orientation and structure of the jet stream was not what you would typically see. This is all a ramble...but I will eventually get back to you with more coherent thoughts.

Seems like a lot of mets feel that way, but down here anything short of near model and ensemble consensus ends up a fail or disappointment.

yes, 978 just SE. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-13-2024

No that level of weenie transcends the forum. Look at Twitter, especially Webb’s before he did his about face around Christmas.

If you want blood.. you got it !

Got a 1/2in from French Ticklers off of the lake down here. Moderate wind damage reports around the area, that was the bigger story along with the temp bottom falling out. 15 gusts over 50 at my station with a 10 min 38+ sustained period. Left Fl to get Tropical Storm force winds up here lol.

Winds have been howling much of the night and will continue this morning before slowly subsiding later today. The sun returns today but we stay with well below normal temperatures for at least the next week with temperatures remaining below freezing till at least Saturday. We only warm slightly to just above freezing this weekend into early next week. There is a chance of a little snow later New Years Eve into New Years Day. If we do see some snow amounts should be light.

Winds have been howling much of the night and will continue this morning before slowly subsiding later today. The sun returns today but we stay with well below normal temperatures for at least the next week with temperatures remaining below freezing till at least Saturday. We only warm slightly to just above freezing this weekend into early next week. There is a chance of a little snow later New Years Eve into New Years Day. If we do see some snow amounts should be light.

Yea, def. a very bad sign if we don't get anything major in the next two weeks.

What was the one that gave central CT 12-16” on Feb 13, 2024. Was that near the benchmark?

Who was the met?

As a novice/amateur I’d state it’s too soon to give up but if we stay dry thru mid Jan with nothing still on the horizon, it’s lights out I think.

If this follows the tenor of this season…it’ll probably juice up some. 1-3” would be a nice refresher.

I know we had one that was rain last year

Can confirm we had about 1/2 inch overnight. I'm about 5.1 miles NNE of Jonesborough on the map, south of I-81. Was a total surprise. https://freeimage.host/i/fXqnsh7 https://freeimage.host/i/fXqn4kl https://freeimage.host/i/fXqnLQ9

Either Jan 2024 or 2022

Earthlight likes the pattern ahead for a big east coast snowstorm.

Agreed. This pattern is good for some lighter snows, but until we have a big PNA spike, no larger storm is making its way to our area. I think the OPs and the Ensembles were overzealous with the large storms they were depicting past few days. In reality, they were probably just signaling a pattern change, but the way models are….. you know the rest

Whether you like Bamwx or not, he has some great explanations for coming pattern, and should watch.

Its always the same person who keeps doing it.

She was the last benchmark ish bomb?

What I will say is that I think guidance is underselling the emergence of the PNA...I can see this storm burgeoning back into existence with relatively little lead time when that correction is made.

he also said to ignore the models that showed a warm Dec 18-28 window because of Phase 8. bad bam bad bam