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I’m thinking not: Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

I grew up hearing "north and west of the city" in the 90s for like literally every storm it felt like. Very frustrating for a kid who loved snow.

It seems as though the affected area is CPK/LGA through SNE. Eastern PA as well. I am in awe of how much snow the Delmarva region has been getting. I remember growing up it seemed to be always warm/wet cold/dry. I would watch the weather channel (before internet lol) and they would use the phrase "its just a cold SNAP for the northeast, temperatures will rebound nicely......". The delmarva area did extremely well back then also.

Weeklies flipped for the 1st week of December.

I’ll have to check it out. Thanks for posting this!

Zzzzz

FWIW, 15 day changes

Who wants to start the Winter medium/long range thread?

Chances of some snow around Thanksgiving are looking pretty good. SW to WNW wind. From Cle morning discussion "By late Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, the cold front will have departed to the east, leaving much of the region under the influence of a surface trough. With 850mb temperatures quickly dropping into the -8 to -10C range, this will mark the beginning of an increasing threat of lake effect snow. Initially Wednesday night, a sustained southwest flow across Lake Erie should isolate the heaviest band north over Lake Erie and have minimal impacts to the snowbelt minus possibly along the immediate lakeshore. By Thursday morning however, the upper level trough axis shifts east of the area and overall flow across the lake gains a more WNW wind component. This is expected to result in lake effect snow gradually shifting inland across the primary snowbelt. As this happens, ample moisture combined with deepening EQL and moderate lake induced instability should result in areas of heavy lake effect snow through Thursday night. Overall structure of the lake effect should be multi-bands with embedded heavier bands. Confidence continues to increase that there will be accumulating snow across portions of the snowbelt through Thanksgiving, but exact snowfall totals, locations, and timing remain uncertain. Given the increased travel surrounding the holiday, please keep up to date with the latest forecast and plan accordingly"

Good snowfall pattern stretching from the upper midwest and Great Lakes into new England, with poorer snow chances in the midatlantic and points south is, again, classic Nina December.

I see the same thing. Most of my buddies simply rely on their weather app, and will be standing in the pouring rain with me insisting there is a zero percent chance of rain...

Arriving in the Western Suburbs Saturday from Fort Lauderdale, sorry for all of us the warm air is following me north.

Yeah, missing data interrupts the streaks even though they continue. The only time we had some relaxation of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet in recent years was in mid-February 2024. That was when that really narrow snowband in association with the record El Nino STJ streak occurred. But since it was only a one week pattern in such a warm winter, there wasn’t sufficient time for follow up events to occur and end the NYC and LGA streaks. So it upped the odds of the streak continuing at spots like NYC and LGA.

Could also throw 2001 in.

26 frosty degrees this morning. 116 days 01 hour 21

Of course, there's an element of luck to it.

Maybe a compromise??

Misery loves company in there

I smoked 2 turks yesterday. Today is fast day to offset yesterdays gluttony.... Happy Turk week gang.

LGA's streak continues. Unfortunately, LGA reported "M" for snow on January 11th (0.02" qpf). There's no question that the streak continues there. On a separate note, there are occasional data issues. For example, on October 2, 2025, JFK had a high of 66° (hourly values). No location in the NYC area had highs in the 70s. JFK's high temperature is listed as 72°.

Very heavy frost to the Valley floor this morning with a low of 30. Strong cold front arrives Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and actually stays chilly into the weekend. My point and click forecast has lows in the upper 20’s Wednesday morning, 22 Thursday morning and 19 Friday morning.

address?? J/k...

Just as you argue the SSW is unlikely to be as impactful, I would also argue that February is unlikely to be as warm and the reflection event will last longer. Notice that 2018 was on the shorter end of the spectrum...

Records: Highs: EWR: 75 (1979) NYC: 73 (1979) LGA: 68 (1989) JFK: 64 (2014) Lows: EWR: 20 (1989) NYC: 14 (1880) LGA: 22 (1956) JFK: 21 (2001) Historical: 1812 - Southwesterly winds of hurricane force sank ships and unroofed buildings at Philadelphia and New York City. (David Ludlum) 1863 - The battle above the clouds was fought on Lookout Mountain near Chattanooga. Pre-frontal clouds obscured the upper battle- field aiding a Union victory. (David Ludlum) 1931: A ridge of high pressure across the east and a trough out west brought a variety of record temperatures across the country. Record highs across the east included: Charleston, WV: 87°, Montgomery, AL: 79°-Tied, Athens, GA: 77°, Huntington, WV: 76°, Roanoke, VA: 75°, Tupelo, MS: 74°, Nashville, TN: 74°, Washington, DC: 73°, Asheville, NC: 73°, Boston, MA: 72°, Beckley, WV: 71°, Worcester, MA: 70°, Syracuse, NY: 70°, Lexington, KY: 70, Cincinnati, OH: 70, Cleveland, OH: 70, Allentown, PA: 69, Erie, PA: 69°, Harrisburg, PA: 69°, Providence, RI: 69°, Hartford, CT: 69°, Pittsburgh, PA: 69°, Newark, NJ: 69°, Elkins, WV: 69°, Concord, NH: 68°, Albany, NY: 68°, Buffalo, NY: 68°, New York (Central Park), NY: 68°, Philadelphia, PA: 68°, Akron, OH: 68°, Columbus, OH: 68°, Dayton, OH: 68°, Chicago, IL: 67°, Springfield, IL: 67°, Williamsport, PA: 66°, Wilmington, DE: 66°, Toledo, OH: 66°, Grand Rapids, MI: 66°, Peoria, IL: 66°, Mansfield, OH: 65°, Burlington, VT: 65°, Rockford, IL: 65°, South Bend, IN: 65°, Portland, ME: 64°, Lansing, MI: 64°, and Ste. St. Marie, MI: 62°. Chicago, IL had a morning low of 30°, their latest first freeze on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1938: The low temperature of 15° at Las Vegas, NV set the all-time coldest temperature in November. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1950 - The temperature at Chicago, IL, dipped to 2 below zero to equal their record for the month established on the 29th in 1872. On the first of the month that year Chicago established a record high for November with a reading of 81 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1970: Strong Chinook winds struck the Colorado Rockies. The National Center for Atmospheric Research at Boulder reported a wind gust to 97 mph while downtown Boulder reported a peak gust to 69 mph. Some minor damage resulted. Record high temperatures followed the next day. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1971: Snowfall for Thanksgiving (the following day), at Washington, DCA 1.4 inches, and Baltimore Maryland 1.0 inch caused a bad traffic snarl. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1982 - Hurricane Iwa lashed the Hawaiian Islands of Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu with high winds and surf. Winds gusting to 120 mph caused extensive shoreline damage. Damage totalled 150 million dollars on Kauai, and fifty million dollars on Oahu. The peak storm surge on the south shore was six to eight feet. It marked the first time in 25 years that Hawaii had been affected by a hurricane. (The Weather Channel) 1983: The 24 hour snowfall record at Duluth, MN was broken with 16.5 inches and a storm total of 19.7 inches. This broke the old record of 15.7 inches, which occurred on 11/16-17/1968. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1985: Many locations from the Pacific Northwest to the Plains reported record low temperatures for the date including: Grand Forks, ND: -28°, Bismarck, ND: -26°, Glasgow, MT: -19°, Aberdeen, SD: -16°, Huron, SD: -15°, Kalispell, MT: -13°, Yakima, WA: -11°, Pendleton, OR: -11°, Sheridan, WY: -11°, Spokane, WA: -9°, Sioux Falls, SD: -9°:Tied, Valentine, NE: -7°, Billings, MT: -2°, Rapid City, SD: -2°, Olympia, WA: 0°, Boise, ID: 5°, Denver, CO: 7°, Salem, OR: 11°, Portland, OR: 13°, Seattle, WA: 16°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southern Missouri, southeast Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma. Flooding was reported in Greene County of southwestern Missouri. Springfield MO was drenched with more than six inches of rain. Thunderstorms over southern Texas produced more than eight inches of rain in Caldwell County and Hayes County, and thunderstorms over south central Oklahoma produced one inch hail at Temple twice within an hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Low pressure brought heavy snow and high winds to the Northern and Central Rockies. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 40 inches at Wolf Creek Pass, with 27 inches falling in 24 hours. Telluride CO received 32 inches of snow, and winds atop Mines Peak gusted to 95 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: A major winter storm was in progress across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, and western Kansas. Near blizzard conditions prevailed that contributed to a massive 200 car pile up on Interstate 40 in Amarillo, TX. All traffic was brought to a virtual standstill in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. 19 inches of snow with drifts over 6 feet was reported at Laverne, OK. Heavy snow and blizzard conditions occurred across a large area of southwest Kansas. Snowfall amounts ranged from 17 inches at Liberal to 15 inches at Garden City and Dodge City, KS. This snow began a period that marked the snowiest winter on record for Dodge City. Most roads and highways in the Garden City, Dodge City, Meade, Greensburg, Coldwater, and Liberal, KS areas were closed with snowdrifts of 2 to 5 feet. Snow drifts as high as 15 feet were reported at Hugoton, KS. Widespread visibilities of a quarter of a mile and less were also reported from the early afternoon through early the next morning. There were two fatalities from the storm. Estimates from area farmers and feed lot owners indicated that as many as 5,000 head of cattle may have perished during the storm. Behind the storm, Pocatello, ID reported a record low of -6°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Bismarck, ND was in the middle of a 5 day snowstorm, over which time 28.3 inches of snow fell on the city, their greatest snowstorm on record. Behind the storm many locations reported record low temperatures for the date including: Casper, WY: -19°, Cheyenne, WY: -16°, Sheridan, WY: -14°, Great Falls, MT: -13°, Burns, OR: -12°, Billings, MT: -11°, Denver, CO: -8°, Pueblo, CO: -7°, Rapid City, SD: -5°, Boise, ID: 0°, Medford, OR: 17°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: A winter storm across the northern Rockies beginning the previous day produced over a foot in some areas. Snowfall totals included: Burgess Junction, MT: 15 inches, Dayton, MT: 11 inches, Story, MT: 10 inches and Sheridan, WY: 7 inches.. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

Fair and valid point, but Franklin checked many boxes out and how did it work for him? Mind you I liked JF, but Smith deserves a chance. Like TT suggested, give him a 2 yr deal, and fluff it up w/ bonuses for late season success and roll em.