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Might dip down to 22-24 tomorrow night across parts of DFW. Our coldest night of the winter so far.

-45° We can always go lower

Same in Larchmont.

This is the Sea of Okhotsk in mid Feb 2012. I did my senior year of high school in Vladivostok and went up to Petropavlovsk for a a few days. It’s pretty landscape but in general far eastern Russia is a depressing place lacking much molder infrastructure and kind of ignored by the federal government.

Let me try that gif trend again, I'm having gif trouble today, may need to make an appointment for that

Well after this dud, we've got another shot this weekend. Finally a decent slider track. Boundary layer temps are super marginal and I expect we "waste" some liquid to cool the column via diabatic cooling. It's also during the middle of the day, but that's a little less of a showstopper in mid-Jan. The trough orientation isn't the best, so there's still a chance of a whiff, but there's at least some agreement between the RRFS, AIGFS and EC-AIFS on track now and it should be able to produce a decent band of accumulation on the northwest side.

with that kind of cold....we wouldnt need a ton of qpf....make it 18 degrees...give us .4 qpf....thats 8 inches of powder

Not sure, but I do like that the Euro is showing it, too, and not just the GFS. Makes me think it might actually have legs.

Happened last year too - mby had 3 single digit low days in a row.

nice, did downtown got screw holed or were the higher amounts focused in one area

The GFS only lost 2 feet of snow in 6 hours. What's to complain about?

Fair question I think, when was the last meaningful storm (maybe a Big Dog) that any combination of models forecasted correctly from 240+ out?

yeah don't do that

EPS looked better too. Gets 1-2” from about Ginxy up to BOS. Gonna need another bump NW for real snow though.

I mean we did hit single digit lows for a day or two in 2013-2014.

I went out to get lunch and I see the Euro just full sent it too. There was a time not so long ago though, that CMC, Euro, and GFS all liked this weekend. What has pushed the boundary so far south on today's 12z runs? Trend on the Euro:

Bet the streak. Dry and windy.

Euro’s had a consistent long range cold bias. I’d expect cold, but not tha extreme.

Don’t forgot the cold suppression possibly next week.

I just pulled up radar and no short term models are showing any of this snow right now. It checked reports and New Castle and Evans City are showing snow.

Yea, that is rough having an ice storm and losing power and then having extreme cold, plays havoc also with people working to reconnect everyone I would imagine. Your post doesnt make me feel alot better, not too far from southern KY.

Put down the pipe man

Never ! But yes looking like Some digital tracking is on! .

Yeah, man. I don't wan't any part of that...but the wx pattern is honking for over-running with that gradient. The thing that has concerned me for a bit is ice which is then followed by extreme cold. I saw that happen once in the Piedmont. @Met1985might be able to comment on that. Folks were dangerously (CO poisoning risk) bringing their grills into their homes. If we want winter storms, we need that gradient a bit further south still as it could gradually drift north. OTH, if models are just now getting a good handle on this...tornado alley could get ice and snow. Need to see a few more runs, BUT modeling has already kind of circled this timeframe as one to watch. If forced to forecast it now, I would say southern KY is gonna get hammered. I just don't know about the rest of the forum. But the cold has been very consistent on ensembles - very consistent for this time frame for the entire area.