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17z hrrr did some digging, hopefully 18z follows suit

Nice write up by Justin Berk: “Is there a case to be made for snow next weekend? These are just notes of what I’m watching this week… Timing of upper level energy can be off by a day when looking a full week away. This past Friday event initially looked like an afternoon and night thing… but it ended up mostly in the morning…. And lingering into the next day with upper level support. My purpose here is the highlight that the modeling is NOT perfect. It’s all about timing and I subscribe to the fact this polar jet has features we are not seeing handled well on the models. Not seeing much snow now, could change if the alignment changes…. And it may from what I saw in the early morning plots. The chaotic atmosphere is imperfectly predicted farther out in time. 1. The big push of the Polar Vortex will arrive. 2. Temps Saturday afternoon likely to stay in the 20s to low 30s. Tracking ENERGY in the jet stream with Vorticity 5-7 days away is imperfect. Again, the timing can be off by a a few hours or a day, and that can make or break phasing - which is needed for a storm to form. 3. Vorticity Saturday morning from the EPS, which is an ensemble blend of global models. This brings the main vort max across Maryland and then just cold. 4. Vorticity Saturday morning on the European AI model looks similar, but more active. There is more energy in the pipeline. THEN… 5. Vorticity Sunday night brings the base of the polar jet across Maryland. Will it snow? 6. Saturday Afternoon ECMWF has a clipper to our north, with a chance for flurries while light snow in the mountains and to our north. The timing is off and not letting it phase. If this ends up a little south or the timing changes, I believe there’s a chance for more to develop. 7. Sunday afternoon the ECMWF AI model brings that wave in later and spins up as it hits the coast. 8. Sunday Night the GFS is later with the energy AND closest with the attempt to phase. Just seeing the variations next weekend show me there is a lot left to be understood. So expect the outlook to change. It’s NOT a promise that it will snow, but a pledge that next weekend’s weather will be cold, but the rest we don’t fully know. Faith in the Flakes”

Didn't wake up to the advisories, but there they are! Should be an interesting morning. Nowcasting will be required!

@Hvwardcan you give us some hopium for a lee side trough?

It could be northeast North Carolina’s second snowfall of the season

Yeah I think a chase should be reserved for either 4+ inches or a weekend day. Not to mention how bad the traffic is getting into Cvill from the 14 lane stroad on route 29. I hope its able to bump its way a little bit further north for you guys as well! So far our seasonal trend appears to be last minute favorable north shifts so its possible!

Yeah Chicago is having a really nice start but their winters of late have been abysmal. I’m starting to weigh the AI versions higher than the regular versions. The fact that AI more or less is a continuous upgrade by machine learning. I think we’ve already seen much better performance vs the early days of the AI models.

I understand this but most people do not. And I understand their point of view as well. If you told the average person we had three events so far this winter they would think you're sniffing glue or huffing paint...

12z Ensembles - White Christmas Season incoming - keep the faith Team Snow!! I will keep finding the snowiest maps!

Truth!! as a NWS spotter I have to add them up and report each one. Most folks will say it didn't snow at all....heck I have 3 winter "events" and all it totals is 1.1"

Burn all todays 12z model suites with fire The horror the horror

I feel every La Nina we look at maps like this and they suck!

Anthony wanting to move to the lakes region..lol. Nothing is going on, It’s just bad dam luck…period! Virginia and NC got snow, and look to get more. NNE killing it. Upper Midwest and plains killing it. Lakes killing it, cold all around. When it’s snowing literally all around us, it’s just bad dam luck/ju-ju/carma- whatever term you want to use. And that’s that. As Ray said…sometimes these take some time…climo getting better everyday for us, but maybe we just get f’n Skunked. It happens unfortunately. It’s happening right now. Not a dam thing anybody can do. Congrats Virginia lol. I’ve lived this before here…it can get ugly, and it looks to be back again.

AIFS sniffing em out

Pulling for yall out east ! .

Lol

You have to remember the majority people are not snow weenies like us. We do not see 2-4/3-6 stuff that often anymore. We are dorks and calculate 0.4" snow falls and add them all up. Most people write that off as it didn't snow or not an actual snow storm. Those people are correct. And if it doesn't stick the road and inconvenience them they write that off as nothing as well where you will calculate that into our annual snowfall. Winters were definitely better years ago...

Is it spring yet? Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

Yes the northern NC Piedmont could get a coating to an inch

I’m still hoping that some weather god out there acknowledges my existence and sneaks a couple tenths up to DCA. But can never get too mad when areas further south do alright. Just wish my job was still remote so I could get down there more easily, lol. Prob not worth the hassle for 1-3”.

After watching the last two systems miss SW I'm hoping to at least catch you IL crew this week.

This wasn't even really on my radar till you mentioned it still Friday night. Now I need to make a last second insta forecast for my friends at UVA Tech and W&M lmao

12z runs are pretty depressing today