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2025-2026 ENSO
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
With the upcoming warmup, March is almost certainly going to end up above average in the Eastern 1/3 of the US. The only way we get a below average temperature departure is if we have something like this: 2011-03-23 40 32 36.0 -8.8 29 0 0.87 T 0 2011-03-24 44 30 37.0 -8.2 28 0 0.09 1.0 1 2011-03-25 42 28 35.0 -10.5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-26 40 26 33.0 -12.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-27 45 28 36.5 -9.7 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-28 45 26 35.5 -11.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-29 49 31 40.0 -6.9 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-30 53 36 44.5 -2.8 20 0 0.01 0.0 0 2011-03-31 43 37 40.0 -7.7 25 0 0.13 T 0 -
That's a serious signal on the AIFS. It's in clown range but man that would be sweet.
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Yeah, that was crazy too. That pic was the one other pic I thought could be consistent / supportive of the telegraph one. To your point, the article did state that poles were not as tall as todays, I just wish they had an idea of how tall they actually were. But even if they were 12 feet off the ground that would still be impressive. Who knows, I wonder too was it snow that was atop a previous snowpile or something? But again that pic of the house looked legit, and I'm sure 70 mph winds with prolonged heavy snow over wide open plains I'm sure could yield some tremendous drifts.
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Today's splits: EWR: 38 / 31 (-4) 0.38 NYC: 35 / 29 (-7) 0.32
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At least you still have snow falling, we're stuck with Kevin's saggy boob pine trees down here
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plenty of zr, very icy on the side roads and sidewalks.
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2/24 - 2/25 Clipper Obs (1 - 2" for many on forum)
CPcantmeasuresnow replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Flew to Florida this morning so no measurement. From looks of the ring camera during day it couldn't have ever be more than .5 inch if that. Lots of 31-32 rain/freezing rain after that. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
We all know that isn't going to happen. The sun angle is too high and the ground/temps are too warm. Any precip that falls from now until October will be rain. -
24.9° -SN 4.6” Flakes are a bit rimed…maybe even a little refrozen. CC mix line is near CON, but that 1.3° tilt is showing a little lower CC overhead.
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Ruin replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Ill bet a chick fil a meal this will be cut in half in a few days then turns into a apps runner -
Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion
DocATL replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Hopefully we get some decent rain before drying out in the northwest flow. Gotta hope it’s over-modeled. . -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Brunswick 23S (2005-2025), Newton 11 SW (2003-2025), Newton 8W (2003-2025) are warming about 0.9°/decade. That matches Georgia's statewide warming during 2003-2025/2005-2025. Watkinsville 5 SSE (2005-2025) is warming 0.6°/decade, which is somewhat slower than the statewide average. -
Let’s go 50s and 60s!
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Been stuck at 27 here in Westfield the last several hours. Lots of freezing drizzle
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never got above 30 here and it has been liquid for hours now, albeit light but still.
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I'm down, gonna look nice in the morning with everything glazed.
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maybe the models weren't that far off with the ZR, at least .20" of accretion here, and looks like plenty to go, stuck at 29°...man my deck is a skating rink
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The audacity of "Weather Decision Solutions" trying to plop their copyright onto an AI-Generated graphic is laughable.
- Today
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Only a die hard weenie shows a 360 hour 18z GFS showing a foot of snow in March.
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Nice winter....not one of my favorites, but I'd hit it again. Still wouldn't bet against another KU mid-month.
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Agreed. Two coastals this year. That was a great one. 18 plus here with blowing and temp of 5 degrees, and wind chills pushing close to -20F. Great storm. Too bad we missed out on the real big stuff a week ago…but those are the breaks. Maybe we can pull a good one mid month with that potential set up? Be nice to make up for/take the sting away from what happened last Sunday night and Monday.
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kinda unremarkable, if you dig into chicago weather history. it happens more than you think, that is a lack of snow during winter months at times. i'm not just talking recently over the past few years either.
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Do you or does anyone else know how much these 4 GA locations warmed? I’d really like to know due to their supposed lack of UHI effect. @TheClimateChanger @donsutherland1 @chubbs
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I still think it's a "coastal" mighta been a weak one but that pressure delta was pretty extreme regardless of the weak SLP. Just wasn't your classic wound up nor'easter. It was similar to PD2 in that way. Blizzard criteria not reached but still plenty windy with gusts over 30-40mph, in the evening and night. That's probably the best storm we've had in the past 10 years around here, probably a top 3 or 2 for me, ever. I dont think i've seen S+ at around 5-7F all day and probably will never see that again. Truly remarkable. Two foot+ storms in one season is always a big W and something that doesnt happen often either.
