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Radar is way more juiced then the hourly HRRR, lets see how this plays out

Definitely signs of some potential next weekend on ensembles. midweek looks meh. Might be borderline temps too.

I’ve got my popcorn ready to watch the resort cams of the blizzard conditions tonight. Have fun everyone!

Be careful out there

13 years ago around this time, we had winter storm watch go into effect for OKX zones for Nemo. One day later, it would turn into a blizzard warning. 10-14" of snow and blizzard conditions was expected. Forecasts just kept getting better as we got closer to the event. Saved the 2013 winter

Radar looks suspiciously good lol. West to East precip right over the mountains??

Already got some flurries in Kingsport.

Nice bump up there river East .. supports 3-5” with localized higher amount s here up into ORH county

If we hold onto that -NAO, we should be in decent shape. If the NAO turns +NAO, the warmth that has plagued the west and plains since December will have to come east.

Yea, no complaints from me...I expect it to be east. I'll take the refresher.

GFS tries with the Feb 20 @CAPE potential

I don't think the part where you said "north of $150k" is true. Cardinal directions don't apply to integers. Back to brain surgery

I think advisories will eventually be necessary for other areas as well... North Shore a lock, but I could see the trigger being pulled for lower end advisories anywhere from portions of eastern / southeastern CT on across RI... Sometimes they will issue advisories for a glorified snow shower setup, but not jump in one a widespread solid light accumulation event...

Pretty bad accident on Rt 79 near Zelie. Not sure if roads or visibility, but heard fatal and at least 18 cars.

Methuen maybe gets tickled

Light snow 27 degrees. NW of Winchester.

36 degrees and virga here.

Yeah you guys will do well

What is the yellow there, 6"?

What's more impressive it really hasn't budged. Basically the same amount and not all crappy looking. Hopefully tonight a little refresher... 26F/Overcast

GFS and RGEM on the 1-3” train for Suffolk. GFS gone wild like 3k NAM with 3-4”

Agreed. Hedging towards 3 but 3-6" would not surprise me at all

That early February blast in 2023 packed significant wind here, and probably NYC as well. I don't think this weekend will have as deep a WCI as back then.

The gfs is just not a serious model. Look at 00z last night to 12z today for the 11-12th… only about 1000 mile difference with the low