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why are you going for much lower rainfall totals than Upton ?

Memories of this on 15th anniversary…

Yes. I remember it well. The afternoon snow squall, even as it was short-lived, was quite impressive.

Man 93 95 and 94 for highs MTW and then 61 twenty four hours later and 58 at same time today

Following the Joplin thread 15 years ago is still intense.

We had snow that week too-accumulated briefly on some colder surfaces...

Next 10 days. Bleh

0.41"

May 9, 2020 at JFK Airport (tied), LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains (tied). For Bridgeport: November 23, 2018 For Islip: June 1, 2009 For New York City-Central Park: August 29, 1986 (tied) For Newark: August 29, 1982

Your old friends from the thread just to your north miss you… Please drop by & check in sometime. Miss you man…

One of the worst Memorial Day weekends (for outside fun) I can recall.

With the nino we could see a wetter summer....

Clouds will increase tonight. Rain will develop tomorrow and continue into Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The temperature will likely remain in the 50s all day on Saturday and struggle to reach the lower 60s on Sunday. The mercury will likely return to the lower 70s on Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. El Niño conditions are now in place. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -19.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.868 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

lol huh? That’s Stein depicted

Sending you all some rain from the Deep South/Southwest!

Are we losing Sunday ?!?

1.83 so far id love to hit 2" today

0.48” last night and today 1.48” total so far

True - many merchants in the shore towns will see less $$$ than expected but it will help the drought from getting any worse in the short term BUT we need soakers like this on a regular basis for a month or so to really lessen drought conditions - not lilkely with June traditionally not one of our wettest months and a stretch of sunny warm/hot long summer days more likely than not.

I checked the radar and saw them doing the split around you

Looks like we have hit the jackpot today. I have picked up a total of 1.74" so far. 1.19" from the first storm and .55" from the 2nd.

Do you think we will flip to a +PDO this year?

IMO this Nino goes nuclear after this upcoming major WWB/ERW and subsequent (new) DWKW. It think that entire WPAC/Indo warm pool gets sloshed east by the end of this event @roardog Yes on the +PDO

In other news, I've been seeing short and medium term forecasts that indicate that the weather pattern over the Southeastern US is changing and there is a persistent moisture flow setting up (which will be very beneficial as they've been in a very severe drought that's had a major impact on agriculture etc). I don't understand the meteorology behind all of that, but if we are on the fringes we might benefit by way of more consistent precipitation going forward (?)

For the record it does seem like we keep a wet pattern about here through Wednesday.