All Activity

With the long range drying out considerably, we now look to come close to the driest year on record at GSO

The new NOAA relative weeklies are out and the record strong east basedness persists with only 3.4 not rising: 23SEP2026 3.9 3.1 2.2 0.1 30SEP2026 4.5 3.3 2.3 0.1 07OCT2026 4.4 3.4 2.4 0.2 14OCT2026 4.4 3.5 2.4 0.0 21OCT2026 4.4 3.6 2.5 0.0 28OCT2026 4.6 3.7 2.5 0.2 -Nino 1+2, 3, and 3.4 are far above any other on record for the week. -Nino 1+2’s 4.6 ties with 6/29/1983 for the all-time record for any week. -Nino 3’s 3.7 is a new record high beating last week’s and 12/29/1982’s 3.6. -Nino 3.4’s +2.5 is a new record high for the week beating the +2.1 of 2015 -Nino 3.4’s highest for any week is +2.9 of 12/29/1982. There’s still no guarantee that will later be exceeded though there’s a good chance as of now.

Here’s to the NAM [emoji1634] Rip .

Sad day

Gorgeous

Regardless of the actual +IOD raw numbers, there is very clear +IOD forcing present on the OLR and VP charts. So the atmospheric coupling is there, which is what is important. It would be impossible not to have a +IOD with a Nino this insanely strong, it causes one to develop. It’s not going to make any difference in the strength of this Nino, nor how well it is and has been coupled. We are light years stronger than 2015, 1997, 1982 and 1972. It’s not even remotely close. This Nino has already secured its place as the strongest event in history and it’s going to increase its strength even more into December

NAMS are being retired today after a long delay

Wild, I’ve had probably 10 mornings in the 20’s.

But in terms of the IOD, Oct of ‘26 though solidly positive was very underwhelming in comparison to 2 recent years per the weekly readings: 10/2026 ~0.76 10/2019 ~1.83 10/2023 ~1.74 10/2015 ~0.83 The latest weekly bounced back only slightly from 0.69 to 0.73. At this time in these years it was much higher: 2023: 1.5 2019: 1.7 Typically, this peaks by Nov. So, if it doesn’t jump sharply within the next few weeks it very likely will never do so this Nino per past patterns. https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1793622027272

The color of the sky this morning had a profound effect on the color of the leaves.

@psuhoffman Take a look at the latest CFS run on pivotal.

BWI: 5” DCA: 3” IAD: 7” RIC: 9” Tiebreaker SBY: 3” Southern slider gives RIC the W

schedule those sierra trips now folks

Was like someone flipped a switch in March 2020. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2026 T T 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.5 3.5 2009 8.3 8.3 2008 T T 2007 6.0 6.0 2006 1.3 1.3 2005 6.9 6.9 2004 4.8 4.8 2003 3.5 3.5 2002 T T 2001 3.8 3.8 2000 0.4 0.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 5.7 5.7 1999 4.5 4.5 1998 5.0 5.0 1997 1.7 1.7 1996 13.2 13.2 1995 T T 1994 8.1 8.1 1993 11.9 11.9 1992 9.4 9.4 1991 0.2 0.2 1990 3.1 3.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.0 3.0 1989 2.5 2.5 1988 T T 1987 1.9 1.9 1986 T T 1985 0.2 0.2 1984 11.9 11.9 1983 T T 1982 0.7 0.7 1981 8.6 8.6 1980 4.6 4.6

you've been a good sport but i know the positive anomalies will start stinging more before long here

11-game win streak without an offense was bound to end. It is just disappointing that Kyler is so inaccurate.

BWI: 1.8" DCA: 1.0" IAD: 2.5" RIC: T SBY: T

@forkyfork..."cope".

Min 35.9° but most of the night was near 40°

We have been showered with some rain here in the Triad this morning.

Yup another frost here this morning