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I mean it really is the only reasonable call living in this area. Never go big this far out...and for us 6 to 10 is MECS

@Ji are you following your rule and going with the least snowy model, ie the gfs? Or does that not apply with this system?

Well the TWC behind the scenes folks sure like the NRN most solutions. Their depictions at least in the MA on S and W are on par with the CMC or UKMET.

Also only about 7 true disaster members on the AIFS Ens

upgraded CMC

once again why ?

Not sure what the ratio of freezing rain and sleet would be in this given scenario but 12z EURO with monster FRZRN totals

That evening when I heard on the wx radio that LGA has TS+, I said, "no way it can be tucked that far NW and not get BOS!!!"

That was an I-40 special. Knoxville also had around 1 inch of ice from it. It was snow and sleet here, we had about 6 or 7 inches combined. Southern Kentucky has 12+ inches of snow.

I believe you but that is an absurd statement for them to make.

I only count 7 fairly truly devastating misses to the south. 14% of disaster, what could go wrong?

I was comparing 24 hour QPF and it looked a slight bump north to me. I didn’t combine total QPF because there’s some stuff between now and then that could be noise.

It's a tough and thankless job that requires a lot of time if you really care. Thank you Michelle for all you do and especially after John passed away.

Make America Great Again and root for the GFS. Oh say can you see by the dawns early light…

Copy paste 9 (just extend to the East)

the key take away (1:11 update) .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence continues to increase for a storm system to affect the area this weekend. Chances for accumulating snow and ice accordingly have increased compared to the previous forecast.

FYI a few of the more reliable METS are even mentioning 20:1 around the metro.

Yep, about 20 model cycles to go. I would start to look for some sort of consistency and trends starting with the 12Z runs tomorrow to get an idea of where we stand. At that point (12Z tomorrow) we'll be within about 96 hours of the event. The better models (CMC/EURO/EURO AI) should start to have a better handle on things. Expect the GFS to flop around for who knows how long. I give no credence to that model no matter what it shows. It is bottom of the barrel. We might even want to start the baseline at 00Z tonight and see how things move from there.

Completely agreed. Probably wont end up a HECS, that would be mega rare in a Nina. But a MECS is clearly on the table and I dont think a single one of us would have scoffed at this potential going into a Nina winter. I always say keep expectations low.

How much ice for metro ATL? An inch?

In Greenville, SC....this is a big Booooooo

bx and rjay will drive by when they can, but there’s not many of us left who can or will

I knew the northern stream would find a way to kick us in the nads again

And northern Middle TN as well. The southern adjustment gives me some added confidence.